Posted on 07/23/2004 9:55:41 PM PDT by nwrep
Kerry 49, Bush 45
801 Likely voters
MOE = 3.5%
Poll: 7/20 - 7/22
That's it, it's all over, don't even bother holding the election, I'm moving to Zanzibar.
Thanks for the link to the polling numbers, but your title could have used more thought...
I don't get it. We've got a surging economy. Jobless claims are down. Terrorists are on the run, scrambling for a meager hit. And all the Kerry camp has to offer is a "We Hate Bush" platform.
So why the hell does Kerry keep getting higher poll numbers? What the hell is going on here?
What do you mean? I was shocked. This is a shocking result.
Midweek poll, results within the margin of error. Looks like Independents were oversampled. Meaningless. Don't worry.
Close to the margin of error. I'm not worried -- yet. If we see numbers like this in September, then I'll be worried.
Well, if it's as accurate, as their California poll, we have nothing to worry about.
May 7, 2004
California
Kerry (D)
46%
Bush (R)
45%
Later polls showed very different results.
I wonder how Nevada will really turn out.
Las Vegas Latinos. Take that Carl Rove.
No worries. The dems expected a big jump in the polls after Edwards was selected. They are gearing up for their convention, which will add a few points. But, historically, Dukakis was up by 10 or 15 points at this point in his election bid.
The Republicans will have their convention in Aug. and the dems numbers will fall.
All of this is based on national polls. Nevada has had polls that go either way. Nationally, Bush is ahead in most polls but, within the margin of error.
We have 3 and a half months left and the dems are statistically tied or just slightly behind.
3 months is a long time.
No worries.
There isn't a lick of positive in this. Bush should be leading comfortably in Nevada. Another in a growing string of state polls. See Fl and Pa.
Got to be a bad sample
With all the attacks on Bush by the Media and Hollywood Kerry should be up in the polls by 20 or 30 points. Bush is going to smoke Kerry by a sizeable margin.
I say this because a close friend works for a Pollster and has told me much about how these polls are conducted. They change the wording of the polls to get the results they need to keep it close. Paying any attention to the Polls right now is almost a waste of time.
The key question in almost all of these Polls is "Who is the stronger leader" and "Who would keep us safer"
George W. Bush is way ahead in every poll on these issues, and John Kerry will have a very tough time trying to chip away at W's commanding lead on these issues. I predict John Kerry will not win more than 4 States in Nov.
Nevada is and will be Bush country. No worries. I'm here doing the legwork!
Given that he only won narrowly there in 2000, I would disagree. Furthermore, the Yucca Mountain nuclear dump has cleared another hurdle, so you're seeing resentment over that issue aimed at the incumbent administration.
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