Posted on 08/12/2004 12:15:26 AM PDT by goldstategop
ELECTION 2004 AOL poll: Bush wins in landslide Unscientific survey indicates president collecting 48 States
Joe Kovacs
President Bush
In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race.
The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader.
According to AOL's electoral map of the United States, there's a massive sea of red marked in favor of the Republican president, while only two states – Connecticut and Vermont, along with the District of Columbia – are marked in blue for the Democrat from Massachusetts.
That's a total of just 13 electoral votes for Kerry, compared to 525 for Bush. The magic number of electoral votes to win the White House is 270 .
"I find voters are blinded by their hatred of Bush and ignore the true issues," wrote AOL member Tarraballa on a messageboard related to the poll. "That is scary to me. Kerry may be winning in the war of 'hating Bush,' but he is not the best man for president. Do you honestly want Kerry in office when 9-11 hits again? I wouldn't."
Another member, Rme22567, took Bush to task for the past four years.
"He is treasonous, traitorous, too cowardly to even go to his cushy stateside assignment during Vietnam, and is the single most evil and incompetent, hateful president ever. Impeachment alone is too easy a sentence, he needs life in prison and should be charged with 928 counts of murder on U.S. soldiers."
AOL's interactive map allows users to click on each state, and view the total number of votes for that state.
For instance, in California, the biggest prize with 55 electoral votes, there was a virtual tie between Bush and Kerry, though the president had a razor-thin 39-vote margin as of 12:20 a.m. Eastern time this morning. Thus, California was counted in the Bush column. Ralph Nader got 2 percent of the California vote, though he has not made it onto the Golden State's ballot yet.
According to AOL voters, Kerry is not even carrying his home state of Massachusetts, where Bush takes 51 percent of ballot-casters.
While no one from AOL returned WorldNetDaily's request to comment on its straw poll by press time, the Internet service provider says on its site that each month, the voting starts over for candidates, and that AOL members are allowed to vote once per month.
Conceivably, someone with more than one screen name could cast more than one ballot, but such a "vote early and vote often" technique is open to people of more than one political persuasion.
AOL's giant red map is reminiscent of the USA Today map showing results from the presidential race four years ago, where Bush won the electoral vote, despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore.
Year 2000 map of election returns. Counties won by Bush appear in red. Gore's counties appear in blue. (source: USA Today)
The 2000 map shows a county-by-county breakdown, with red areas supporting Bush, and blue regions backing Gore. The final tally had Bush winning 2,434 counties nationwide to Gore's 677. The population of the Bush counties was 143 million as opposed to Gore's of 127 million.
Though the 2000 race was among the closest ever, sweeping landslides in presidential elections are not unheard of.
Ronald Reagan won 49 states in 1984
In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan won 49 states, while his opponent, Democrat Walter Mondale, took only his home state of Minnesota.
In 1972, Republican Richard Nixon won 49 states, while Democrat George McGovern collected only Massachusetts.
The last time a Democrat saw such sweeping landslides was in 1940 and 1944, when Franklin Roosevelt collected more than 400 electoral votes against Republicans Wendell Wilkie and Thomas Dewey, respectively.
During this year's political season, professional pollsters using scientific methodology have shown a close race between Bush and Kerry.
A Gallup survey following the recent Democratic convention had Bush receiving 50 percent support among likely voters, and Kerry with 47 percent. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry held a 50-47 lead.
According to a poll published Aug. 5 by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry held an electoral lead over Bush of 228-197, with 113 votes listed as toss-ups.
Rasmussen also puts out a daily tracking poll on the presidential contest, and yesterday's results had Kerry leading the incumbent in the popular vote 49 to 46 percent.
As I've been saying people may like the I hate George Bush message but they can't stand John Kerry. The more they see of him the lower he'll go.
He should stay in the Big Ketchup Mansions and do a Max Headroom virtual campaign.
Bush by 3%
The point about the poll is even if you think its far too optimistic is a LOT of people aren't warm to Kerry. Note Bush carries MA with 51% of the vote! Does that mean half the Democrats think THEIR candidate is The Lurch?? What it tells us is people lie to pollsters and tell them what they want to hear. It doesn't mean they'll vote that way in November.
Your 40% or so is the Hate Bush folks. Why can't Kerry pick up the other 7 to 10% of the swing voters who decide elections? It goes back to his getting NO BOUNCE at the Convention. At the end of the day, he'll carry his base but that's all the votes he'll get. Something about him just turns people off.
Good God! I knew something about Kerry was bothering me that I could not quite put a finger on, besides all the obvious things.
Max Headroom... yep, fits to a "Tee..."
Max Headroom- Twenty Minutes Into The Future
| Max Headroom: Twenty Minutes Into The Future. Blank Reg: "Remember when we said there was no future? Well, this is it.". ... Max Headroom Local Links: ... www.public.iastate.edu/~spires/max.html - 3k - |
Nearly 60% of the American people don't want to vote for someone who looks a cadaver. Let's face it, they may not agree with everything Bush does but they can stand seeing him on TV for the next four years. Kerry makes people react negatively. If you think that ain't so, just wait til the debates.
I like these poll numbers, but I'm waiting until I hear a fat lady singing before I relax.
I pray everyday Bush wins !!!!
I believe that AOL might do anything to lull us into a false sense of security so that we will give an inch and blink first.
There! I can take my foil hat off now.
Bush only loses the popular vote because five major cities have more RAT voters than the entire country.
Man, the margin just keeps getting bigger and bigger! Last week I saw several people claiming Bush won by 11 points in 1988. Now it's up to 12!
The actual margin was 7.7 points.
I like your enthusiasm, but we can not afford to be lulled into complacency.
If you're right, and everyone turns out, we get a bigger landslide.
If I'm right, and everyone turns out, we squeak the win.
In either event, it's a win-win scenario to maximize Republican turnout to the polls. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. We need to bust our collective asses making sure the DimoRats don't steal this election like they almost did in Florida - and the best way to do that is to get every GWB vote out there.
I saw that article and my first thought was "Economists and Weathermen, how often are they right?"
I hope I'm wrong but I have felt since November of 2000 that the election in 2004 will be very, very close and I still think so.
Do you have a link to the site ? PS I love that tag line.
As much as I desire to believe this poll, I find the conclusions ridiculous.
The last time I put faith in an AOL poll was in 2004, and it predicted the GWB would win easily.
If GWB supporters want him reelected, they must vote and be sure all their friends vote.
You can be certain the other side will have their minions out in force on election day.
It’s time for those who haven’t voted yet to start doing so. Looks as if DU has gotten wind of this poll and the numbers are starting to change.
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