Posted on 09/09/2004 7:00:49 AM PDT by K1avg
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004
...IVAN...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...CONTINUES TOWARD JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.
IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14 INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
In other news, the latest NHC track puts it heading straight over Florida. Great...
But to get to Florida, it will have to cross Cuba or Hispanola which will severely degrade it. Starting this far South it could easily hit the gap into the Gulf of Mexico. Since the general models predict an increasing curve to the north after that it still might impact the Florida panhandle (the only part of the state that hasn't been really whacked).
This one is awful looking. I don't know how much more worry I can have for all my friends and family in Florida. I've been through Andrew--if my children were grown, I would be down there in a heartbeat to volunteer. God, this one really worries me..the others too, but topping them off with a cat 5 storm or even a 4. This is like watching a boxing match--a left, right, and now an upper cut. God put your protection around this already battered area.
"In other news, the latest NHC track puts it heading straight over Florida"
In other, other news, CNN is preparing banner graphics of 1,000 dead Floridians to display over gloating idiots claiming its all Bush's fault.
Why anyone would live in Florida is beyond me.
Well DAMN - we rode out Frances here in Cocoa Beach and are almost back to normal -- at least have power, cable and phones (some what) - Ivan looks serious. Not sure we'll hang around for this one.
Ivan Ping!
I've always wanted my own ping list! This is a short-term, probably medium-volume ping. IF you desire on or off, please FReep-mail me.
This list was compiled from last night's 26A threads. I should be posting every advisory (excepting the 2AM and 5AM ones - pure folly to not sleep) from now until she hits.
I will probably only ping y'all to advisories and news for Ivan, but if demand persists past Ivan for a full-fledged "Hurricane Ping List," who knows?
Stay safe all.
Please add me to your ping list. Family and freeper friends in Florida.
Hurricane hunter aircraft found winds of 175 knots. That's 200 mph folks. This could be a historic super hurricane. Just pray that it turns north and out to sea.
well. we have 10 months of beautiful weather and 2-3 months of possible hurricanes. First time in 10 years that I am experiencing this. That's life!!:)
The bad news?? You already mentioned that: it's going to get stronger.
New extrapolated pressure of 916 mb, and eyewall winds of 175 kt.
And I don't like this one at all: "The future intensity will likely be modulated by inner-core convective changes and land interaction since the water ahead of Ivan is only forecast to get warmer."
I predict a Camille redux, landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Done.
I keep thinking "Camille" as well.
Thanks for the ping. I have family in Islamorada so I'm watching this one closely.
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