Posted on 09/28/2004 5:42:17 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Over the past few months, an important segment of Black voters have been moving away from John Kerry and toward President Bush. While the headlines tell us that Gallup has once again found President Bush leading by a solid 52/44 margin among likely voters, the real story of this poll is being smothered by the media. The actual story is that there is an absolutely unmistakable trend of Black voters moving toward George Bush and away from John Kerry. Going back to mid July, we started to see poll internals that had Kerry getting just 80% of the Black vote. This is of course a death sentence for any Democratic candidate for the presidency. Then for weeks we heard nothing about the intentions of this group. Finally the CBS/Times poll released on September 11th whispered that same number. Blacks were supporting Kerry at just 80%, there was no upward movement for Kerry. Now comes today's Gallup News release including the internals. They are devistating for Kerry. They show George Bush getting 30% of the "non white" vote. Try as they might, the media can't hide the fact that in this context, "non white" means Black. Gallup tells us that the trend has been there for at least a month. Since the end of August, the President's numbers have improved, with this group, by 7 points. Gallup now tells us that he will get 30% and that just for weeks ago he was at 23%. There is definately something happening here. The media appearently thinks they can ignore it to death. They are very wrong.
In 2000, it was very different - everyone had Gore gear, black and white.
John Kerry is just not inspiring to the black electorate.
Isn't his nutty wife and African-American? I can't believe the average Black person can't relate.
The RATS still have their "Bush drags blacks to death" and "Black churches will burn if Bush wins" ads.
Democrats are like slave holders who did not free their slaves 'for their own good " as they would not be able to cope as well on their own.
He'll probably do slightly better than 10% - some people are impressed that he did appoint Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice to such prominent positions after the 2000 election.
Of course, turnout is more important than percentages - Vice President Gore energized black voters. Senator Kerry doesn't.
These numbers explained the dims panicing attacks claiming 'voter intimidation' and other such nonsense (see today's WSJ).
I am not taking this to the bank, or even the dry cleaners, but a lot of times incumbent Republicans do slightly better with Blacks than in an open seat. I wish I had specifics to back this up, but it is a trend I have noticed when going over numbers in local races. My theory is that the scare tactics don't work as well with an incumbent. Bush hasn't dragged anyone to death, nor has there been a rash of black church burnings.
I can believe this. I think many black people have seen four years of the Bush presidency with obviously highly qualified and intelligent black people performing important jobs and being recognized for their abilities. What's not to like?
Link? I can't find this on the Gallup site.
Three cheers for the dawn!
I was at San Gennero feast Friday night and a black women was handing out religious literature and shouting too everyone vote for George W. Bush. I chatted with her a few moments and told her to keep up the good work.
I was impressed.
As a small business owner, she was very impressed with the novel and its philosophy.
While I am not a huge fan of the atheist Ayn Rand, it's good to see someone reading nonleftist literature on the NYC subway.
Any poll that has internals showing Bush getting 30% of the black vote is optimistic in my opinion. I hope I'm wrong...
I think many "big city" African-Americans are beginning realize that their first priority is to vote for candidates who will do the most to make sure their kids get the best education possible. Everything else is "background noise."
There are very effective ads running here in Ohio (and I assume elsewhere) that target African-American parents. In effect, they say "you have voted for Democrats for decades and their only response has been to send more money to your local elected leaders to fund a dying educational system." It goes on to say (my words) "isn't it time you woke up and realized the Republicans will put that money in your hands?"
The not-too-subliminal message is "support Republicans and we will support you by providing school vouchers and other means that allow you afford to send your kids to the best school."
It must have been those race-baiting Kerry ads that were so insulting to the intelligence of black people.
It is insulting in a way since the implication is that "all you African-Americans have been taken for granted by the Democrats." It could make you defensive and angry at the Republicans.
But it could make you just plain angry that you've voted Democrat all your life and (on the local level) the Democrat has always won, but the educational system is far worse now than when you were a kid.
Sooner or later, you have to ask yourself whether the Democrats are the solution or the problem.
If Hillary runs in 2008, we'll have at least 4 million more illegals who'll vote for her, on top of the 20 million who are already here, plus 90% of the blacks.
i'm surprised jesse jackson hasn't been more vocal, just to hit the kerry camp up for 'donations' to his push coalition....
but i would agree the minority vote may be tanking to wait for hillary in '08
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