Kerry Pulls Even With Bush In Ohio

American Research Group ^ | October 6, 2004

[Clintonfatigued]

Poll gives Kerry 48%, Bush 47%.

[tirednvirginia]

Yes, you are right. They tried to spin it for Kerry in our state of VA at one point but that was a bunch of crap, too.

[Clintonfatigued]

PING!

[SaintDismas]

Dunno...but if you look at their polls compared to all others contemporaneously (how do you like that word?)their poll is crap----and lots of it---

as in whacha stepin in out dere in yonder cow pasture ifn yer not carefl....

[boycott]

ping

[mtngrl@vrwc]

IGNORE ARG......Bush will WIN Ohio...take it to the bank

Phew! Thanks for saying so, I really needed to hear this. I swear, if I come out of this election without having an ulcer it will be a miracle.

[timbuck2]

Are you kidding me? Dems allowed gay marriage on ballot in Ohio? They're toast. LOL. I had not heard that.

-T

[okstate]

This poll should be tied at 48, because Nader is NOT on the Ohio ballot this year.

In ARG's defense in Ohio, though, the partisan breakdown of this poll is accurate, and other polls have shown it close. Rasmussen had Bush up 1 on October 2nd, and Survey USA had Kerry up 1 on October 4th. Prior to the first debate, Gallup had Bush up 2 on September 28th. On the other hand, the Columbus Dispatch had Bush up 7 before the first debate.

So Ohio has definitely tightened from the 8 point lead the President had earlier. I believe the President is up about 2-3 points in Ohio after the second debate.

[crushelits]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry Sunday October 10, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 50% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. Voters have declared the second Presidential debate a tie with fans of each candidate thinking that their man won. The Tracking Poll is based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews for today's update were completed after the conclusion of Friday night's Presidential debate. There was not a noticeable jump in the post-debate interviews, but it will take a few more days to fully measure the impact of the debate. In the race to control the U.S. Senate, Republicans can feel confident of winning or holding 48 seats at this time while Democrats have 44 in their column. One Senate race is leaning Republican and seven are too close to call. Our latest Electoral College projections show the President ahead with 240 Electoral Votes to 169 for Senator Kerry. These projections will be updated today, Sunday, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Rasmussen Reports Premium Members receive daily tracking updates for Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They also receive weekly updates for 15 other states plus other supplemental information. A full year subscription is available for just $95. To keep up with our latest releases, be sure to visit the Rasmussen Reports Home Page. The left hand column on that page shows our most recent releases along with a schedule of upcoming releases. The right hand column provides a convenient summary of our latest political data. If you need to find information we've released over the past couple of weeks, visit our Other Recent Releases page.

[Clintonfatigued]

First things first: I am not a troll, and I didn't know that ARF was a partisan organization. I only posted it so Ohio conservatives don't take anything for granted.

[Pastnowfuturealpha]

I don't know about the poll - and I don't like them - but -

The Socialist Democrats went into overdrive in Ohio. Didn't anyone else see the % difference - Huge - the election officials in some areas are swamped and are working to keep up with all the forms coming in -

The best thing to do is not to take anything for granted -

just thoughts -

[yoe]

This thread will give you both Kerry's voting record - "from nothing, nothing comes" and President Bush's amazing record - "Res ipsa loquitur" - the thing "record" speaks for itself.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1240721/posts COPY AND SEND TO YOUR LIST.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH - HE WILL KEEP AMERICA SECURE; HE CARES ABOUT AMERICA AND AMERICANS!!

[okstate]

ARG isn't a partisan organization, as far as I know... but their sampling and likely voter "index" are exremely favorable to Democrats.

[TSchmereL]

Get out and vote for Bush!

Every vote for Bush in Ohio is very important.

If you are registered to vote in Ohio, spread the word.

[zbigreddogz]

Kucinich might lose? Your kidding me! I thought he was an Ohio equivilant of Jim McDermott and Charlie Rangel.

Is this a realistic possibility or just a pipe dream?

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

There was no allegation you were. We were just pointing out ARG's bias. They have been consistently 3-5 points off the rest of the pollster's numbers, favoring Democrats.

Exactly how they are doing it, I can't figure out, because they have the right DRI numbers from 2000 and their gender numbers follow the 2000 exit polling data. Other pollsters are using the same 2000 data and getting entirely different results.

[timbuck2]

Who was the last Repub to win the presidency, but lose in Ohio? Jeopardy music begins...

-T

[TSchmereL]

If Kerry doesn't win Ohio he will not be President.

Because of the very real potential to win Wisconsin, Bush can now lose Ohio and still have a reasonable chance for victory.

If Bush does lose Ohio, but brings in Wisconsin, he will have to swing FIVE Electoral Votes to win.

President Bush has four different scenarios through which he could gain these votes. The best bet right now looks to be Iowa's 7 Electoral Votes.

[okstate]

I think it's the way in which they identify likely voters (which is propreitary)....

For instance, Gallup had President Bush's numbers way higher than all other pollsters back in late July and August because supposedly they way they identify likely voters is favorable to Republicans. ARG is just the opposite.

Kind of the same thing how some pollsters push leaners differently, and how that really affects their numbers (i.e. Rasmussen and Zogby getting different results)

[wagglebee]

I want to see the polls from after Friday's debate, I think there will be a 5 to 6 point swing.