Posted on 10/18/2004 8:10:20 AM PDT by drangundsturm
Bush: 49% Kerry: 45%
Those are some good numbers considering the weekend polls prefer the whinny dems
Oh, no, this is awful. Kerry is killing us! It's over, it's over, wait...oh, Bush up four. Hmmm.
True, weekend polls are better for the rats.
This is good news!
However, I thought Zogby had it tied again...hmmmmm.
I guess Rasmussen will have to break the tie in the tracking poll wars, then, sometime in the next 45 minutes. Please note that Rasmussen calls more people than Zog and TIPP combined, so he tends to have less swing every day from statistical noise.
I notice Zogby has undecideds at nine percent.
I believe this is a net gain of +1 for Bush over the last few days. Overall trends looking good. I suspect we will see some really good state polls coming out by the end of the week.
This is good, closer to the magical 50%. This is a poll of likely voters, usually the undecideds will go for the challenger, so 50% is the promised land.
This may be more accurate than Gallup's 8% lead, but with most of the polls showing 3-6% leads for Bush, at least 4% seems likely. That's a landslide, folks.
And Kerry had his big chance to get his message to the voters with the three debates--and he blew it, or at least failed to capitalize on it. He will have a very difficult time turning the tide from here on in.
I want to see more of this MSM Kerry Mo!
But Zogby must be correct. After all, he has no bias and neither does his client, Reuters!
49% with nader in the race is already the promised land, but of course it's way too close to be comfortable. You would have to believe that 100% of the undecideds go for kerry, a statistical impossibility. He might get 70%, but not 100%.
Rasmussen and Zogby have a very close methodology. Only difference is the way they ask questions, Rasmussen is automated, Zogby has live operators. But other than that, they are identical to how they shape and form their polls.
As often as not, at the last minute, the "undecideds" go for the incumbent party in national races. ("Better the fool you know.") As they did in 2000. In regional races they usually go for the challenger.
I agree. Whatever he gained from debates (if anything) will be a distant memory by the end of this week. The race is returning to the 5-6% bush lead that was in effect before debate 1.
The state polls, which lag by about a week from the tracking polls, should start turning dramatically against kerry by the end of this week. The MSM will then turn on kerry for blowing what they feel was an obvious opportunity to unseat Bush. Dem faithful will be putting in calls to Dr. Kavorkian by this coming monday.
That is correct, there is a mistaken assumption that in presidential races the undecides got to the challenger....Decidedly untrue
They have been early the last few days...I wonder why the late reporting today??
Rasmussen has it tied at 47 today. Go figure.
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