Posted on 10/30/2004 7:29:59 AM PDT by TFine80
There is only one reaction to this Bin Laden tape. It is not an endorsement of Kerry. It will not scare Americans into voting for Bush or Kerry. It is sign of weakness.
The Media is going to try to trick us in these next few days. In the guise of trying to speculate about the impact of these tapes, they are going to try to imply that Bush is failing in the War on Terror and that this tape is proof. We cannot allow this.
For months, many have predicted that Bin Laden wouldn't let Bush finish his term without an attack. Unless it comes in the next few days, he will have failed. This also is an ego issue for him, proven by the fact that he has shown the need to set himself parallel to Bush in this tape.
There are several key signs of weakness in this tape and the Assam tape. Signs that his propaganda is failing.
First, the first tape responds to the claim that Americans are "good people" and do not deserve to die. It answers this by saying that most Americans are vulgar and dirty and do not deserve any respect. This is necessary because many Muslims still are unwilling to support attacks against civilians in the US. The massive attention Al-Jazeera and other Muslim/Arab media has given to America in the last few years, albeit often anti-American, has finally educated the Muslim world about American life, our religiosity, and the large Muslim population here. This is also proven by the backlash and, at minimum, discomfort against the beheadings in the Muslim world.
Second, the fact that he is simplifying his "offer" or "bargain" is a major change. Go look at his previous letter to America: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/worldview/story/0,11581,845725,00.html His demands are much larger and even include our conversion to Islam. The media spin that Bin Laden is only criticizing our policies is another attempt to subtly imply that the problem is that Bush has inflamed the Muslim world. We all know that there is nothing we could do that could appease Bin Laden.
Third, something very interesting is happening in the Middle East that the US media is not reporting. I speak some Arabic and live in an Egyptian community in New York City. A fair number of Muslims and Arabs are actually hoping that Bush is re-elected because they believe that only in a second term does the President have the political capital to push for a Palestinian state (because of the power of the Jewish lobby according to them). Some of you may not be able to imagine this, but Bush might get it done (especially if Arafat dies) and he's said he wants to. This success would cut Bin Laden off, destroying his propaganda base.
Fourth, he is trying to cut off continued speculation in the Middle East that the Mossad or CIA did the 911 attacks. This conspiracy theory, while indicting the US and Israel, saps his strength. This is why he now takes credit for the attacks and proves he exists. It is still possible that he didn't have that much command and control in the attack. There is no reason to maintain this simply to inflate the threat from terrorism.
Fifth, he is on the DEFENSE on the freedom issue. The reason he has to repeat that his Caliphate nonsense = freedom is because the Muslim world knows it's a lie. Look at Iran. Believe me. Very few people want this. This is PROOF of the success of Bush's Iraq dialectic. The world doesn't realize it yet, but by toppling Saddam we have put ourselves on the right side of history, with the Iraqi people and against the tyrannical governments in the Middle East. We just need to communicate this MUCH better.
Sixth, the leeching off of the Israeli issue shows that he knows that his support in the Muslim world is not so strong and is not based on his agenda. Originally, this was not his issue at all and he actually disdained the PLO. If the Taba attack in Egypt was Al-Qaida, which it probably was, it indicates this as well. To be honest, and Freepers need to understand this, many Palestinians -- although many do support terrorism -- do not support Al-Qaida because they know it hurts their own efforts to achieve a state and because many Palestinians live in the United States. Many Palestinians are outraged at the Taba bombing, but Bin Laden may be trying for more support in the other parts of the Muslim world that are so focused on this issue.
If he had been able to complete an attack earlier, he might have been able to maintain Islamic support (that's why I was so worried of an attack during the Iraq War). Now it's too late and I think he knows it. We may have already won in the grand scheme of history; the world just doesn't know it yet.
ONE LAST THING, FREEPERS... Quit the discrimination against Arabs and Muslims. 'Nuff said.
Interesting essay, you have made some good points. I agree about the excessive Arab bashing. We shouldn't stoop to that level.
I disagree.
"Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda. Your security is in your own hands and each state which does not harm our security will remain safe."
OBL's statement is a direct threat to the people in the states carried by Bush in the election. The implied meaning is that the people in the states which go for Kerry will be safe.
This is a DIRECT threat, is it not?
It's discrimination to not like the people who want to kill you and your children? I don't trust or like muslims or arabs, period,deal with it.
I think that translate into nations, not states in the US sense. Plus, it is refering to what he believes are the US threats to Arab 'security'... Israel and Iraq...
He's basically changing his propaganda from Saudi Arabia (regime) issue to the Israel/Iraq issue. This issue is not as a grandious and represents a retreat.
Hudna.
Kerry is Osama's man, Bush is mine.
I just mean racism gets you nowhere... Discrimination in certain senses (racial profiling) is justified. And I'm not talking to all Freepers, just a few.
In my opinion, there is no other way to interpret it. I've yet to see a single pundit hit on this main theme of the tape. All we got over the last 15 hours is "who's it going to help". I'll draw my own conclusions and prepare accordingly without the help of the media.
I agree that this tape was as sign of weakness. It was very odd in how subdued it was. No "volcanic eruptions of rage and horror" unleashed on America. I think you were looking at a basically defeated person who had all of the cockiness taken out of them.
I agree that the tape is a sign of AQ weakness. We are kicking their tails and osama knows we are going to get him sooner or later. He is basically crying "uncle" in terrorist speak when he offers a truce for leaving them alone. We left them alone and they hit us hard on 9/11. If we leave them alone now they will rebuild their strength and come at us harder next time. Now is the time to hammer these people, not let up on them. The primary thing they want is to kill all the Jews without US interference. That isn't going to happen, so it is impossible to make peace with this vermin.
Really good post.
Good analytical summation that many of us would not have seen.
I agree. OBL thinks he can divide the country by this threat, and advance his own "Finlandization" of the United States. He doesn't understand us, though. We are not Spain, we don't give in to this type of extorsion.
Don't be fooled by OBL's tactic. This is a hudna.
"A hudna is a tactical cease-fire that allows the Arabs to rebuild their terrorist infrastructure in order to be more effective when the "cease-fire" is called off."
I sure hope the activity involved in getting his video tape out, helps to disclose his whereabouts.
What I'm seeing here is OBL attempting to soften us up. Basically, to get the American people to say, "Oh, he's not so bad" and then, of course, to create more dissent and protest that the war on terror isn't really necessary. This is much more dangerous to us than a straightforward bombing. We're good people, wanting to believe others are also good, honest, caring, reasonable, etc. He's evil, not stupid, and he can clearly see how utterly and stupidly responsive the right is to the left's badgerings.
With all the stuff we've given the left over the years - hence our current troubles plus the culture war - it's even more important that we stick to our guns, turn OFF and STOP LISTENING to the left, override their objections, and just get the job done.
Thx.
Good analysis, and I think you've raised some interesting points.
However, another aspect that also makes it clear that this is a sign of weakness is Muslim military history itself. In Spain, during the Reconquista, the Muslim rulers would often ask for "truces" after they had lost a battle or if they didn't feel they had sufficient forces to keep on fighting. In reality, however, these "truces" were nothing but periods in which they could rearm, and were usually broken as soon as they were capable of attacking again. It was a useful tactic until the Spanish leaders realized that it was pointless to arrange these "truces," even though in that case, their Muslim counterpart was not just a shadowy terrorist.
So I would say that it definitely shows that he is weak. We have rounded up lots of AQ members at the middle-management level, cut off many of his funding sources, and have been busy rooting out his networks here and in Europe. Unfortunately, the fact that his "leadership" is so clearly weakened may simply lead to more freelancers, but on the other hand, we're catching up with a lot of them, as well.
They are not one and the same. The first is merely a result of place of birth, parentage and other factors beyond anyone's control. Arab-bashing is racism (or xenophobia) period.
The decision to follow a murdurous pedophile is a conscious one -- like choosing to be a skinhead or a satan worshipper. Any human being who can reason can determine, even if brought up in this evil political philosophy, that this is evil itself and choose to walk away from it.
That decision is certainly subject to scrutiny and attack.
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