Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html ^ | 10/30/04

[JonDavid]

More like a -10 for Comrade Kerry.

[ambrose]

Remember what happened in Spain?

[NittanyLion]

It’s an MSM poll. It’s bogus. Now with new OBL tape out, The Democrats, with the MSM going along, will have to really cook the poll numbers.

I don't believe it's bogus. I suspect this is a 2-3% race in favor of Bush. If that's the actual population, then whether you hit it dead-on or are 1-2% off is a matter of luck.

[jennyjenny]

I can't find anyone who still thinks it's going to be close. I sure don't.

Well, we can't either, but we're in Indiana. We can't find one person here willing to admit they are voting for Kerry. It wouldn't surprise me if Bush won by close to 30 points here.

[MOgirl]

Hello,

I was our today in our GOP MO GOTV Drive. A number of people asked us (I was paired with another volunteer) how we thought it looked. I answered them that IMO, looking at national polls at this point is useless. There are states that President Bush has locked up (regardless) and the same goes for Kerry. The battleground state polls are the ones to now look to for an indication of the final EV count.

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[embedded_rebel]

The MSM is trying very hard to keep the DU types from being discouraged.

[Callahan]

Yep. These numbers reflect the Kerry/MSM assault over the past week. Theoretically the Bin Laden tape will cancel this surge out. Notice that Lurch is still behind even with the lib media carrying his water.

[TonyInOhio]

From the Kerry Spot, for all of the poll worriers:

Had a short conversation with Obi-Wan Kenobi, longtime GOP operative, today. Talked about the bin Laden tape, and his analysis echoed much of what you had seen elsewhere - this makes terrorism THE issue of the election, and Bush is now likely to win in something approaching a landslide.

It's worth the read.

[JonDavid]

I still have faith that Americans are fighters.

[Gustafm1000]

According to abcnews.com bush was .2 away from being at 50% today and that today's results were only negligibly different than yesterday's... only slight changes...

[IndependantVoter]

This is just the result of the explosives stories pushed from Monday on....I expected it to be worse frankly...the key here is that the Osama story is just getting to the public this weekend...Ron Fournier at AP just reported that the democratic insiders are saying that their polls show a bump for Bush and so does the republican pollsters....this makes the last few days centered on terrorism which is good for the Pesident...those tracking polls show the damage done by the news cycle on the explosives story....now we begin to see the polls going up to a nice lead....see Kerry Spot and read AP's report...just relax and let the story play out the explosive story lasted from Monday till yesterday and now the Osama story will be from Friday till Tuesday....this is good they shot their load to soon ...

[Lucas McCain]

I just heard, within a ten minute period, John Mclaughlin (sp?) and Tucker Carlson both confidently predict a Kerry victory.

[finnman69]

I bet most of this was completed before the OBL tape was out.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

You hit the nail on the head. Turnout is everthing! Also....I'm amazed at how many Freepers do not get the electoral system. The polls do not count, good or bad. Kerry can win New York and California by six million votes, and if he can't put together 270 "state" electoral votes, he is up the creek without a paddle. So, in all the "battleground states", please get your butts out to the polls. I wish I could do more, but I have already voted early.

[VadeRetro]

I'm in a West Virginia town with a Democrat mayor, a Democrat judge, and a Democrat sheriff. They pretty much ran the rack on us in the local elections last time even as the state went for Bush. I don't see lots of Kerry enthusiasm here.

[Darkwolf377]

Hasn't it occured to everyone that these polls are so volatile because they are random samplings of how people feel at the moment? I'm not saying they don't matter, but look at the RCPolitics listing of polls--they're awash in Red (Bush) leads. The trend is far more important than these up and down numbers.

[oceanview]

what is amazing to me is that the media has been able to carry Kerry this far. He is a terrible candidate, an extreme northeast liberal, trash talked the US military post Vietnam, had no consistent positions on the national security, has a nutcase for a wife, etc. He ought to be down 15% in a post 9-11 america, but he isn't. It tells you how close our country is to the tipping point.

[dawn53]

Am I wrong in thinking that a head to head national poll has no significance at all this late in the game?