Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html ^ | 10/30/04

[franklog]

The media are jiggling the numbers to keep it close without a doubt. Insiders are confident. Internal polling on BOTH sides is very, very strong for the President.

If they thought they had ANY chance of winning this election, they would have sent Edwards to HI as a counterpunch to Cheney, not Gore. It just doesn't happen that way.

Think about it. Kerry and Edwards are going where they think they can depress the depth of the President's landslide the most. They're out of "win" mode and into "lessen the landslide mandate and save the party" mode.

Another point: Where are the electable surrogates? Kerry has ROCK SINGERS - not statesmen - out on the trail with him. Anyone who will EVER be running for another office in their lifetime is ducking and running for cover from this train wreck. Didn't McAuliffe used to be on TV every day? Where is he now? The DEMS are a lot of things, but they're not stupid as politicians ("Policy Makers" is another story). They're in CYA mode right now, praying for a left wing media miracle but setting it up so they can blame Kerry and only Kerry for the humiliating defeat.

That said, anything can happen and everyone should be doing everything humanly possible to GOTV, but for Kerry to win everything has to happen.

[finnman69]

Bush is up 3 in Ohio. And not according to some interactive tracking poll.

[airborne]

Lets take a poll.How many Freepers are sick of polls?

Bush Lead Widens Among Likely Voters -- Newsweek [Large lead published by Newsweek and Reuters?

Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

CT-4 Poll: Shays (R) 47, Farrell (D) 42

Just released FoxNews Poll Bush: 47, Kerry 45 (likely voters)

ABC Poll: Bush-Kerry Race Closing Close (ABC suggests little change in last night's numbers)

Kerry and Bush Remain Tied (American Research Group Poll)

[finnman69]

ARG has a 40% Rat sample to 45% GOP.

and FYI, Bush has never had a lead in the ARG poll. NOT ONCE.

Tells you about the ARG polls.

[finnman69]

ARG has a 40% Rat sample to 45% GOP.

and FYI, Bush has never had a lead in the ARG poll. NOT ONCE.

Tells you about the ARG polls.

[dogbyte12]

I see a 269-269 tie if Kerry takes Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Bush takes Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, and Kerry takes New Hampshire. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities here.

Of course if Bush ekes out Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it will be a rout.

Gosh I hope that Kerry in Michigan is a sign of kerry losing the state.

[COEXERJ145]

ARG has a 40% Rat sample to 45% GOP.

35% GOP, 40% Rat

[Bommer]

Its the Post; which means Bush is up by 5-6 points!

[finnman69]

right

[puroresu]

If Bush was that close to 50%, why did they round his number down to 49%?

[gswilder]

Yes, the ebb and flow of polls. That's all it is. Since Mid-August, Bush has been up or tied in over 60 national polls. Some by as many as 14 points, averaged around 7 for September, and around 3 for October. In how many polls has Kerry been ahead since Mid-August? (2-3) How big has Kerry's lead been in these 2-3 polls? (1-2 points) How long has Kerry's lead lasted in these 2-3 polls (a couple of days - week at most).

Where are Bush and Kerry campaigning mostly? Gore 2000 states. Sending Dems to Hawaii this last weekend would been like the republicans having to goto LA or SC this weekend. Every poll (EVERY POLL) shows Bush leading Kerry 15-20% on who to best handle the war in Iraq and the war on Terror. Now what issue is at the top of the list for voters? Now it is even more front and center with OBL's video.

Yes, the ebb and flow of polls. Gotta take them all together and as just one indicator. Ebb and Flow. Bush has been bobbing up and down ON the surface. Kerry has been bobbing up and down BELOW the surface.

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

The popular vote is meaningless at this point. The electoral college breakdown indicates a comfortable lead for Bush.