Posted on 10/30/2004 2:04:40 PM PDT by Timeout
Not much. The electorate has changed post 9/11. States like NJ and HI have been affected more than most, but just because they're 15% further right than 2000 doesn't mean other states have been impacted in the same manner. 5-7% is possible, but in my estimation unlikely. Bush has consistently polled 2-3% higher than Kerry, and I think that's where it'll finish.
As big as the weapons story was, any Kerry gain would have registered almost immediately.
This is just the weekend effect. Nothing more.
Some things lag....but nothing that big if it were going to make an impact.
Good work.
Tucker Carson is a joke.
I'm encouraged by at least three things today:
1) The Newsweek poll
2) An AP reporter dropped a little bomblet in the middle of his article, writing: "As Bush and Kerry crisscrossed Midwest battleground states, a new poll [Newsweek] showed the president moving ahead of Kerry in the popular vote, and DEMOCRATS SAID THEIR PRIVATE SURVEYS HINTED AT MOMENTUM FOR THE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT". Now, ask yourself, why would a Kerry insider leak something like that? It tells me things must be pretty grim for them.
3) Obi-Wan's use of the word "landslide". Ordinarily a campaign plays down expectations and certainly doesn't reveal "landslide" indicators based on just a couple of days' polling. This (in my view) is an astonishing comment at this stage of the race.
I think something's up...something below the radar.
Regardless of the poller, Kerry's numbers never put him ahead. The Times story was a gift, especially the timing.
Bin Laden endorsed Kerry. Again, a gift.
It is the media combined with the extreme level of anti-bush hatred by a significant minority that has propelled Kerry this close.
Is he the guy on Crossfire? If he is, he is the reason I don't watch that show.
At this point, tracking polls are nonsense. We've gotten our October surprise, people have made up their minds. Kerry always goes up on the weekends anyway. I'm thinking about just staying off FR and TV until Tuesday night.
Bush has this wrapped up, people. Feel good.
i just heard Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracke predict that Bush will win... they think OBL tape does nothing to help Kerry...
Mathematically possible, but we know it doesn't work that way. For instance, recall that in 2000 the popular vote and electoral votes were both hair-raisingly close, although they broke different ways. That's the baseline to use in looking at this race.
Bush is polling better than he did in 2000 in state after state, including such blue states as Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. He's having little trouble holding his own solid red states, although Kerry is throwing all he has against Florida and Ohio, narrowly won by Bush last time.
That "state after state" business is the key. Any truly national trend won't be confined to just two or three states. When Bush Senior was in trouble in the '92 contest, one heard much in the late days about his "electoral strategy." It didn't work. Too many states toppled to Clinton. Unless the shift is truly regional rather than national, or too tiny to register, a shift in the popular vote will be magnified rather than suppressed in the electoral vote.
The rounded 49.3 down. All of these polls follow rounding rules. It sounds like Bush really had 49.5 or so yesterday which rounded up to 50.
Of course you are right, I was just showing an extreme example of the issue. If the race is within 2 points nationally, the electoral college is up for grabs.
Advise from Jay Cost at Horserace blog:
Polls to watch this weekend:
Gallup
Time
Pew
Strategic Vision
Quinnipiac
Mason-Dixon
Battleground
Polls to avoid this weekend:
Zogby
ICR
TIPP
Rasmussen
Survey USA
Democracy Corps
ARG
Newsweek
Any poll you have never heard of
Regarding #2, the only problem is that yesterday's Dem conference call with reporters said just the opporsite -- that polls were moving Kerry's way. And in fact, that's exactly what we've seen from Zogby, Ras, ABC/WaPo, and Fox.
Can't take what they whisper to reporters as the truth. The dems are experts at planting misinformation.
I'm not panicking, but we just have to take everything with a grain.
Advise = advice (Sorry for the error)
Kerry could have anywhere from 47.5 to 48.4
so, it could be as close as 1 point, or as far as 1.9
since there are 2347 LVs, this is roughly:
2347 x .486 = 1141 people yesterday's results
2347 x .484 = 1136 people today's results
we're talking about FIVE PEOPLE....
and note from ABC:
Highly prized moveable voters -- those who say they haven't definitely made up their minds -- divide now by 47-36 percent in Bush's favor. Because they're a small group -- eight percent of all likely voters -- that's not a meaningful change from yesterday.
Bush is still ahead in moveables...
Well, yeah, but why would you think Kerry could sweep all 3?
Bush will win Florida.
Give him the other states already in his column and add:
New Mexico
Iowa
and Hawaii.
That's all he needs for 270. No Wisconsin, no Ohio, etc. I'm not saying he won't take any of those midwest states...just that he can pretty easily do it without them.
The LA Times has a good electoral calculator. [click on the map].
--------------------
Speaking of which, does anyone know when exactly the Cheney Aloha rally is? That should be something to see!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.