Washington Post: Bush 49%, Kerry 48% - 10/30/04

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html ^ | 10/30/04

[Paraclete]

When we look back on this election, we will find that the MSM did everything possible to keep Kerry in the race.

Our local "red rag," the Des Moines Register has been doing this for years -- short changing the Republican vote.

[MichaelTN04]

Look at it this way.

Let's say there are 1,000 people in a poll.

To get results like this, Bush would get 490 votes, Kerry 480, and Other/Undecided 30.

The day before, it was 500 to 470 to 30.

Does anyone see the problem with this?

A move of 10 people one way based on a NEW sample means nothing.

[bjs1779]

Almost no undecideds left

Don't we need a poll on the illegal voters to get an accurate assessment?

[Pikamax]

yeah.

Oct. 30, 2004 -- It's closing close: Likely voters divide by 49-48 percent between George W. Bush and John Kerry in the latest ABC News tracking poll, a sharply divided electorate in a contest that looks increasingly likely to turn on turnout.

The race, in interviews Tuesday through Friday, is not meaningfully different from the 50-47 percent division in yesterday's four-day tracking result. Bush, for example, today is just two-tenths of a point shy of the 50-percent mark he reached yesterday.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=211909

[infohawk]

If there is a tendency for republicans too under-sample in weekend polling data, it would be for any weekend. The theory is that republicans are out doing things with their families, etc., while democrats spend more time at home. This would be no different on the weekend following the election. The Washington Post poll has been back and forth for some time. It swings toward Kerry and then back to Bush again. I'm actually pleased Bush is still up. He has a lead in almost every national poll. Even though its close in the polls, I'd rather be us. It may very well be that the polls won't show any significant movement either way. When the polls are averaged, the Bush lead has been a remarkably stable 2-3 points for some time now. I think Bush will go into the election somewhat ahead in the polls. The ground game will be very important. Bush could win big if the electorate produces "security moms" and "9-11 democrats."

[jennyjenny]

The turn out here is expected to be extremely high from what I have heard, even though Bush will win here big. People here seem to want to send an overwhelming message that they support President Bush.

[FreeKeys]

"Never give in"

Never give UP! Yes, it's good news, but you never know what kind of last minute "DUI discovery" the 'rats are going to come up with. Keep on keeping on...

The answer is ACTION!!   Do ALL your friends and contacts know who Kerry REALLY is?  Copy and email THIS  to everyone who still needs to find out.

[BP2]

Methodology for this poll:

This tracking poll is based on a rolling three-day sample. About 350 likely voters are polled each day.

10/29: 2,347 likely voters; 2,832 self-identified registered voters Oct. 26-29.

10/29: 2,047 likely voters; 2,488 self-identified registered voters Oct. 25-28.

First of all, this poll still has the initial affects of the missing weapons, which I think has turned now against Kerry.

Secondly, this poll does NOT measure reaction from the Bin Laden tape.

Need encouragement? Look here: Bush Never Behind In CNN Polls For October

[VadeRetro]

I just heard, within a ten minute period, John Mclaughlin (sp?) and Tucker Carlson both confidently predict a Kerry victory.

I meant people I talk to, personally. There's this funny disjoint between what is being sold right now and what people whom I know are buying.

[pissant]

Don't sweat it. Bush 44 states, Kerry 6+DC on November 2. Cheers

[COEXERJ145]

The race, in interviews Tuesday through Friday, is not meaningfully different from the 50-47 percent division in yesterday's four-day tracking result. Bush, for example, today is just two-tenths of a point shy of the 50-percent mark he reached yesterday.

So did they round down 49.8% or 49.3% down to 49%?

[dogbyte12]

It is a sign of what is happening. However, as we saw in 2000, the national numbers if close don't mean anything in regards to the electoral college.

You could lose 90 to 10% in states with 268 electoral college votes, but win 50.1% in states that have 272 and become president. What matters is the battleground polls especially in a close election. It actually depresses me that California is closer than it was last time. What that means is that Kerry is doing better in states other than California than Gore did. Kerry could win California with 1 vote for all he cares. Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin are what matter. If those 3 states are swept, it's over.

[rwfromkansas]

We are having prayer Monday at the college for Bush election.

I don't think the quickie fox poll is anything to worry about, nor is this one. This one is just the weekend effect.

Especially since the AP article says Kerry's own polls (from Ron Fourier) show a Bush surge.

[Antoninus]

FORGET THE POLLS! Do something instead:

Democrats for Bush Flyer -- Print it, copy it, distribute it

[JonDavid]

It’s more like President Bush 5-7 points. Take that to the BANK!! Look, Comrade Kerry is losing in Hawaii. Hawaii, which has gone only two, times Republican (Nixon & Reagan) since statehood. Kerry now has to send Al Gore, of all people, there to save him. Now what’s that tell you?

[Soul Seeker]

I think my tolerance for mood swings generated by polls is rapidly approaching an end.

Let's see-

Sunday
Monday
Tuesday

Three more days of polling hysteria. Should start a hourly countdown till its blessed end.

[saquin]

Don't believe it. Everybody I know is voting for Bush. He'll get over 60% on Tuesday. The socialists are just messing with us.

I think you're deluding yourself. I see this being a very close election, similar to 2000. The question is which way certain toss-up states will break. Bush voters should not be complacent. That would be an immense error. Turnout will be key on Election Day.

[embedded_rebel]

They have a heck of a lot to lose prestige(HaHa) wise after the shenanigans that STUPID Dan tried to pull with regards to
TANG.

[jennyjenny]

Kerry now has to send Al Gore, of all people, there to save him. Now what’s that tell you?

Yes, I believe it is good news when Al Gore is sent out to stump. I only wish they could have sent TaRAYza, but I heard she is still recovering from the hangover from the Red Sox victory.

[Krodg]

Don't believe it. Everybody I know is voting for Bush. He'll get over 60% on Tuesday. The socialists are just messing with us.

Cute reply...it's a shame no one will believe it!