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Numerical Poll Analysis: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics - July to October, 2004.
Fox News poll, October 28-29, 2004 ^ | October 31st, 2004 | dvwjr

Posted on 10/31/2004 3:45:41 AM PST by dvwjr

Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last eight Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the October 27-28, 2004 poll which was released Friday. Also included was the recent Fox News October 28-29, 2004 one-time tracking poll which was quickly released on Saturday. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results labeled "Adjusted Numbers", for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column, it is just to show what would happen if the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals were "Zogby-fied".

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dvwjr; polls
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last eight Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the October 27-28, 2004 poll which was released Friday. Also included was the recent Fox News October 28-29, 2004 one-time tracking poll which was quickly released on Saturday. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation (from VNS exit poll data) results labeled "Adjusted Numbers", for comparison purposes only. No prediction is implied by this 'what-if' re-weighting column, it is just to show what would happen if the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals were "Zogby-fied".

Some comments have been made over the 'tightening' of the race by comparing the results of the last two Fox News polls conducted during the last few days. Most of the variance between the two polls is 'statistical noise', but there is enough of a change in the delta between Bush and Kerry in the Independents to show a trend towards Bush. The change in the Fox News poll released on 10/29/2004 [50% Bush, 45% Kerry, 0% Nader] and the Fox News poll released on 10/30/2004 [47% Bush, 45% Kerry, 1% Nader] is due to the change in the sample composition. The sample R/D/I splits had the Democrats go up by (+3%) and the Republicans go down by (-2.67%). Since Fox News/Opinion Dynamics does not re-weight by pre-set partisan affiliation percentages, the change in the sample composition in ONE day must be due to the inability to contact as many Republicans as the day before. I doubt that the change in the polling sample composition was due to either lack of enthusiasm about their party affiliation by Republicans. Bottom line: the underlying poll internals remained about the same, with more Independents beginning to favor Bush.

If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered or Likely voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations when their results are published.

Notes: In some cases polling organizations will have more than the three categories of partisan political affiliation (Rep/Dem/Ind). When such cases exist, those 'Others' have been added to the 'Independent' category for comparison purposes.



                     
                     
FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results   Republicans Democrats Independents N= Bush Kerry Nader Other Wont Vote
All polls Registered or Likely Voters                    
                     
July 20-21, 2004 100.0% 33.6% 38.6% 27.9% 900 RV 43.00% 42.44% 3.56% 10.44% 0.56%
August 3-4, 2004 100.0% 33.9% 38.0% 28.1% 900 RV 42.00% 46.00% 2.44% 8.89% 0.67%
August 24-25, 2004 100.0% 33.8% 36.2% 30.0% 1,000 LV 42.51% 43.83% 3.68% 9.51% 0.46%
September 7-8, 2004 100.0% 33.9% 37.5% 28.6% 1,000 LV 46.60% 42.80% 2.90% 7.30% 0.40%
September 21-22, 2004 100.0% 35.0% 37.7% 27.3% 1,000 LV 45.60% 41.80% 1.30% 11.10% 0.20%
October 3-4, 2004 100.0% 31.5% 39.6% 28.9% 1,000 LV 47.49% 45.00% 1.49% 5.51% 0.51%
October 17-18, 2004 100.0% 35.8% 36.6% 27.6% 1,000 LV 49.00% 42.00% 2.40% 6.60% 0.00%
October 27-28, 2004 100.0% 37.4% 35.1% 27.5% 1,200 LV 49.75% 44.75% 0.42% 5.08% 0.00%
Tracking - October 28-29, 2004 100.0% 34.8% 38.1% 27.2% 1,200 LV 47.42% 45.33% 0.58% 6.67% 0.00%
                     
                     




Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
National Polls
Partisan Affiliation Preferences
2004 Presidential Election



                       
                  Year 2000 Presidential weighting
                  Republican Democrat Independent
                  VNS calculated exit data
                  34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
      34.75% 38.08% 27.17%            
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 92.00% 9.00% 44.00% Bush: 47.00%     46.96%  
10/30/04   Favor Kerry 5.00% 86.00% 41.00% Kerry: 45.00%     45.82%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Nader: 1.00%     0.58%  
1,200 Likely   Other/UnDec 3.00% 5.00% 13.00% Other/UnDec 7.00%     6.64%  
3-day rolling   Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      37.42% 35.08% 27.50%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 92.00% 8.00% 45.00% Bush: 50.00%     46.94%  
10/29/04   Favor Kerry 6.00% 86.00% 44.00% Kerry: 45.00%     47.50%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% Nader: 0.00%     0.44%  
1,200 Likely   Other/UnDec 2.00% 5.00% 10.00% Other/UnDec 5.00%     5.12%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      35.80% 36.60% 27.60%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 91.00% 7.00% 51.00% Bush: 49.00%     47.43%  
10/18/04   Favor Kerry 4.00% 86.00% 33.00% Kerry: 42.00%     43.62%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 1.00% 3.00% 4.00% Nader: 2.00%     2.43%  
1,000 Likely   Other/UnDec 4.00% 4.00% 12.00% Other/UnDec 7.00%     6.53%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      31.52% 39.56% 28.91%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 93.00% 10.00% 50.00% Bush: 47.00%     48.98%  
10/04/04   Favor Kerry 4.00% 83.00% 39.00% Kerry: 45.00%     43.69%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 1.00% 4.00% Nader: 1.00%     1.41%  
1,000 Likely   Other/UnDec 2.00% 6.00% 6.00% Other/UnDec 6.00%     5.92%  
    Wont Vote: 1.00% 0.00% 1.00% Wont Vote: 1.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      35.00% 37.70% 27.30%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 91.00% 8.00% 39.00% Bush: 46.00%     44.91%  
09/22/04   Favor Kerry 3.00% 81.00% 36.00% Kerry: 42.00%     42.53%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 1.00% 1.00% 3.00% Nader: 1.00%     1.30%  
1,000 Likely   Other/UnDec 5.00% 10.00% 21.00% Other/UnDec 11.00%     11.27%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      33.90% 37.50% 28.60%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 94.00% 9.00% 40.00% Bush: 47.00%     46.43%  
09/08/04   Favor Kerry 3.00% 80.00% 42.00% Kerry: 43.00%     43.14%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 1.00% 3.00% 4.00% Nader: 3.00%     2.88%  
1,000 Likely   Other/UnDec 2.00% 8.00% 13.00% Other/UnDec 7.00%     7.55%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      33.76% 36.24% 30.00%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 87.00% 8.00% 33.00% Bush: 43.00%     42.18%  
08/26/04   Favor Kerry 7.00% 84.00% 38.00% Kerry: 44.00%     44.85%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 1.00% 1.00% 11.00% Nader: 3.00%     3.35%  
1,000 Likely   Other/UnDec 5.00% 7.00% 16.00% Other/UnDec 10.00%     9.62%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      33.89% 38.00% 28.11%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 86.00% 9.00% 33.00% Bush: 42.00%     42.06%  
08/04/04   Favor Kerry 7.00% 82.00% 44.00% Kerry: 46.00%     46.15%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 2.00% 1.00% 6.00% Nader: 2.00%     2.38%  
900 Registered   Do not know: 5.00% 8.00% 15.00% Do not know: 9.00%     9.42%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Wont Vote: 1.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%        
                       
                       
      33.56% 38.56% 27.89%       34.37% 38.86% 26.77%
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers   Adjusted Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 87.00% 8.00% 38.00% Bush: 43.00%     43.30%  
07/21/04   Favor Kerry 3.00% 80.00% 39.00% Kerry: 42.00%     42.28%  
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 3.00% 3.00% 4.00% Nader: 4.00%     3.55%  
900 Registered   Do not know: 7.00% 9.00% 17.00% Do not know: 10.00%     10.87%  
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Wont Vote: 1.00%     100.0%  
      100% 100% 100%   100%        
                       
                       


Source: Fox News poll, October 28-29, 2004 PDF file has date mistake.

Source: Fox News poll, October 27-28, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, October 17-18, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, October 3-4, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, September 21-22, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, September 7-8, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, August 24-25, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, August 3-4, 2004

Source: Fox News poll, July 20-21, 2004

It will be interesting to compare these Fox News/Opinion Dynamics internals as compared to other polls conducted during similar time periods. Look below at the Newsweek poll of October 27-29, 2004 of 1,005 'Registered' voters as compared to the Washington Post tracking poll of October 25-28, 2004 of 2,047 'Likely' voters and the Fox News poll of October 27-28, 2004 (dated 10/29/04) of 1,200 'Likely' voters. Now look at the Fox News tracking poll of October 28-29, 2004 (dated 10/30/04) of 1,200 'Likely' voters. Notice that the tables Fox News tables listed below show a bit more of a swing towards Bush in the preference of the Independents from the previous Fox News poll of October 27-28, 2004 when it was [45% Bush, 44% Kerry, 1% Nader] to the Independents in the current Fox News poll of October 28-29, 2004 of [44% Bush, 41% Kerry, 2% Nader]. The other tables listed below from the Washington Post tracking poll and the latest Newsweek poll during the overlapping polling dates show that the Fox News internals have fallen into line with the trends in the other two major polls shown.

Bottom line from the latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polling numbers, which agree with the trends in the internals of other major polling organizations: The Independents are just beginning to break for Bush...



Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers
WaPost   Favor Bush 92.00% 12.00% 47.00% Bush: 50.00%
10/28/04   Favor Kerry 6.00% 86.00% 48.00% Kerry: 47.00%
MOE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Nader: 0.00%
2,047 Likely   Other 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% Other: 1.00%
2004299   Neither 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% Neither: 1.00%
    Wont Vote 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%
    Do not know 1.00% 2.00% 1.00% Do not know: 1.00%
    99% 101% 100%   100%




      34.03% 36.22% 29.75%    
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers
Newsweek   Favor Bush 91.00% 9.00% 47.00% Bush: 48.00%
10/29/04   Favor Kerry 5.00% 88.00% 38.00% Kerry: 44.00%
MoE ±4.0%   Favor Nader 1.00% 0.00% 3.00% Nader: 1.00%
1,005 Registered   Other/UnDec 3.00% 3.00% 12.00% Other/UnDec 7.00%
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%




      37.42% 35.08% 27.50%    
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 92.00% 8.00% 45.00% Bush: 50.00%
10/29/04   Favor Kerry 6.00% 86.00% 44.00% Kerry: 45.00%
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 1.00% 1.00% Nader: 0.00%
1,200 Likely   Other/UnDec 2.00% 5.00% 10.00% Other/UnDec 5.00%
    Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%




      34.75% 38.08% 27.17%    
Poll Information   Demographics Republican Democrat Independent   Poll Numbers
FoxNews   Favor Bush 92.00% 9.00% 44.00% Bush: 47.00%
10/30/04   Favor Kerry 5.00% 86.00% 41.00% Kerry: 45.00%
MoE ±3.0%   Favor Nader 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% Nader: 1.00%
1,200 Likely   Other/UnDec 3.00% 5.00% 13.00% Other/UnDec 7.00%
3-day rolling   Wont Vote: 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Wont Vote: 0.00%
      100% 100% 100% Total: 100%





I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.

Hope this helps...



dvwjr

1 posted on 10/31/2004 3:45:43 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll analysis ping...


dvwjr


2 posted on 10/31/2004 3:47:04 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr
Nice job, as always...and soon my son, very soon..you will be able to sleep....(g)

BTW..sewriously, I'd encourage you , after the election, to turn your considerable statistical expertise to an analysis of how well the major polls did in predidcting the election..

3 posted on 10/31/2004 3:49:43 AM PST by ken5050
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To: dvwjr

Looks like the only time they polled more GOP and Dem was the previous poll. And Bush still wins 7 out of 9! This is looking very good.


4 posted on 10/31/2004 3:50:55 AM PST by Novel
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To: dvwjr

Thanks for the ping. Just as I suspected, underweighted GOP sample. Given the MOE, this is to be expected from one poll to another. It's unfortunate that the "weekend factor" has to come in so close to voting day. Maybe we could amend the constitution to move elections to Thursday!


5 posted on 10/31/2004 3:58:09 AM PST by Timeout (Just hours to go....before we sleep!)
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To: dvwjr

Good Job dvwjr, but what does this all mean comparatively and statistictly? Bottom line, is Bush safe? Does Skerry stand a chance?


6 posted on 10/31/2004 4:01:56 AM PST by dokmad
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To: dokmad

Things change in the last hours of a campaign. These Fox News/Opinion Dynamics number seem to indicate that the Independents are begining to split for Bush. Is Bush safe? Not until he gets 270 Electoral College votes on November 2/3! Does Kerry have a chance? Yes, but unless the the very LAST national polls (and battleground state polls) show that a massive voter turnout is going to go Kerry's way, then Kerry is drawing to an 'inside-straight'...

For Kerry it is possible, it is not probable.


dvwjr


7 posted on 10/31/2004 4:09:20 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr
OK. I have recalculated the numbers for Oct 30 using new assumption: equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats at 37.5% each and 25% independent. Here is what I got:

Bush 49%

Kerry 44%

Undecided 7%

Earlier today I also had recalculated the ARG poll result for yesterday, which according to them showed Bush 48%, Kerry 49% and Undecided at 4%. But they oversampling Democrats, so I calibrated using the same assumption as above (equal at 37.5%, and I at 25%). Here is what I got:

Bush 50%

Kerry 47%

Undecided 4%

My conclusion: we have to be really careful in reading the poll results...

8 posted on 10/31/2004 4:13:17 AM PST by paudio (CLINTON BOMBED BELGRADE WITHOUT EVEN BOTHER TO GO TO THE UN...)
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To: paudio

Here's hoping for a 2002-style result, in which the polls missed the fact that America is actually much more conservative than the pollsters, pundits and media bosses want us to be.


9 posted on 10/31/2004 4:18:31 AM PST by samtheman (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: paudio

Your re-weighting of the latest Fox News poll is close enough for government work :-)

Let me see at 37.5% R, 37.5% D, 25% I, that gives me...

48.92% Bush
44.07% Kerry
00.56% Nader
06.44% Undecided

This exercise works because the base sample was unweighted to begin with...

The ARG numbers can be crunched in the same way, however they were re-weighted before they were published, so you need to get back to the un-weighted numbers before we re-weight again. But anyway:

49.4% Bush
46.5% Kerry
01.2% Nader
03.0% Undecided


Ralph isn't going to make the 2.7% he got last time...


dvwjr


10 posted on 10/31/2004 4:25:18 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr
Your re-weighting of the latest Fox News poll is close enough for government work :-)

Uh-oh... Considering Republicans usually see government work in a negative manner, it means I have to be insulted... :-)

The exercise above only to show how poll results can easily change simply because of using different weight... In some cases, like in ARG numbers, it changes the order: from Kerry up 1% to Bush up 3%. I forgot that the ARG numbers had been weighted... Thanks!

11 posted on 10/31/2004 4:32:41 AM PST by paudio (CLINTON BOMBED BELGRADE WITHOUT EVEN BOTHER TO GO TO THE UN...)
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To: paudio
it means I have to be insulted... :-)

I'm sleepy... I meant I should feel insulted... :-)

12 posted on 10/31/2004 4:39:05 AM PST by paudio (CLINTON BOMBED BELGRADE WITHOUT EVEN BOTHER TO GO TO THE UN...)
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To: dvwjr

Andy Card was just on Fox & Friends and said the undecideds were breaking for the Pres 60/40


13 posted on 10/31/2004 4:47:56 AM PST by Seattle Conservative (Seattle Conservative)
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To: Seattle Conservative

Yeah, I can see that. The MSM have had us belived that the 'norm' is the undecideds breaking for the challenger. Not true. As some bloggers have shown, the score is 50-50, if not actually trending to the incumbent.


14 posted on 10/31/2004 4:51:39 AM PST by paudio (CLINTON BOMBED BELGRADE WITHOUT EVEN BOTHER TO GO TO THE UN...)
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To: dvwjr

You are very smart, and I am grateful for that, and all your hard work to post your results, and show us. Thanks again!


15 posted on 10/31/2004 5:13:50 AM PST by rose
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To: dvwjr

Thanks for the analysis, but frankly, I'm suffering with "poll fatigue". When President Bush is ahead, I worry about all those cell phone Kedward idiots and the massive Dem vote fraud machine (I'm reading Hugh Hewitt's book "If it's not close, they can't cheat"), and when we're behind, I worry even more. In the latter case, I worry about the future of our country, judicial appointments, cabinet appointments, and those gloating, coreless power-hungry Democrats. I agree with Mark Steyn that a sKerry victory would only prove American unexceptionalism and utter lack of core principles. So I fast and pray for the future of our country.


16 posted on 10/31/2004 5:31:59 AM PST by alwaysconservative (The future of civilization as we know it depends on President Bush getting re-elected)
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To: dvwjr

Amazing... Bush actually IMPROVED, relative to the partisan breakdown. What's up with Fox trying to dispirit the base?


17 posted on 10/31/2004 5:46:50 AM PST by dangus
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To: dvwjr

Thanks for this - it helped to see the difference in the demographics of who they polled.
Unfortunately, Fox & Friends (who seems to be leaning liberal this a.m.) didn't bother to say anything about the make-up of those who were polled over the past few days.
They just released a new one and the Pres is down another point from yesterday. I'm going to check their web site to see if it lists the demographics.


18 posted on 10/31/2004 6:16:13 AM PST by Seattle Conservative (Seattle Conservative)
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To: dangus

FOX IS MAKING ME ANGRY!


19 posted on 10/31/2004 6:19:57 AM PST by Darth Gill
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To: dvwjr; devolve


From the article/analysis:

Some comments have been made over the 'tightening' of the race by comparing the results of the last two Fox News polls conducted during the last few days. Most of the variance between the two polls is 'statistical noise', but there is enough of a change in the delta between Bush and Kerry in the Independents to show a trend towards Bush. The change in the Fox News poll released on 10/29/2004 [50% Bush, 45% Kerry, 0% Nader] and the Fox News poll released on 10/30/2004 [47% Bush, 45% Kerry, 1% Nader] is due to the change in the sample composition. The sample R/D/I splits had the Democrats go up by (+3%) and the Republicans go down by (-2.67%). Since Fox News/Opinion Dynamics does not re-weight by pre-set partisan affiliation percentages, the change in the sample composition in ONE day must be due to the inability to contact as many Republicans as the day before. I doubt that the change in the polling sample composition was due to either lack of enthusiasm about their party affiliation by Republicans. Bottom line: the underlying poll internals remained about the same, with more Independents beginning to favor Bush.

< snip >

Bottom line from the latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polling numbers, which agree with the trends in the internals of other major polling organizations: The Independents are just beginning to break for Bush...


There we go! Always love the concise "analysis for dummies" bottom line! :^D


To ALL Freepers and Lurker voters:

GO to the polls and vote for Bush. Take your friends with you to do the same. If you know any Zell Miller type Democrats that support Bush and they are voting for him, take them as well.

Vote EARLY to avoid the rush. If you wait until November 2nd, make SURE to go and vote!! And if you do wait until November 2nd, remember:

IGNORE ANYTHING IN THE MEDIA YOU HEAR (i.e., making a fast, early call in Florida for Kerry, etc.). WE CAN AVOID A REPEAT OF THE FLORIDA ELECTION DEBACLE OF 2000 THIS YEAR IF GOP TURNOUT IS STRONG, imho.


[Expletive deleted] !!!


20 posted on 10/31/2004 6:28:16 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (There is only one GOOD 'RAT: one that has been voted OUT of POWER !! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: dvwjr

Great job again, as always.


21 posted on 10/31/2004 6:37:59 AM PST by kesg
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To: dvwjr

The pollsters must be running into a fair amount of people who have already voted. I wonder if the answer "I already voted" would qualify you as a likely voter? I suppose to keep their methodology consistent, they would have to reject someone as a likely voter if they fail the criteria even if they have already voted.

I'm going to vote and am a volunteer in the 72 hours plan, but would not be considered a likely voter, by Gallup anyway. I wonder how many there are like me.


22 posted on 10/31/2004 6:48:56 AM PST by TomEwall
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To: Darth Gill

I swear that Rupert Murdoch is secretly a big-time Democrat, but a brilliant businessman who simply figured out how to gain the trust and marketshare of the 160 million conservatives out there.

Fox broke the DUI story
Fox is relentlessly negative on the polls, even routinely mischaracterizing them
Fox's Prime-Time lineup is 6 liberals, 1 conservative

AND GODDAMMIT, I WANT TO STRANGLE SCOTT PETERSON JUST TO GET HIS DAMNED TRIAL OFF THE F---ING AIRWAVES!

I AM SO DAMNED SICK OF SCOTT PETERSON!!!


23 posted on 10/31/2004 7:06:18 AM PST by dangus
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To: dvwjr
Saturday polls are full of bull. Over 20 million American's are busy watching their favorite College Football teams play on Saturdays and aren't going to interrupt their day to answer some pollster. A majority of the Democrats surveyed are either "girly Dems" or Friday night "Goth Udultschilds". Of course these Democrats, they do get a hold of, have to Google what University or College means in between stuffing their bowls. FOX News really should get out of the polling business because they continue to publish what they know is wrong. If one should take the number of Registered Democrats and Registered Republicans they will find that they are fairly equal, Dems have about 1% more. Take the Independents and they seem to favor President Bush by about 4-5%. That leaves President Bush leading 53.5%-54.5% and Kerry 45.5%-46.5% in a two way race. If one should include Switchable Party Affiliates then Bush runs away with it. It's as simple as that. These MSM Polls are playing the safe game by keeping it this close then will use some event as an excuse why they were so far off. Come Wednesday Bin Laden is their excuse.
24 posted on 10/31/2004 7:31:06 AM PST by tobyhill (The war on terrorism is not for the weak!)
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To: dvwjr; Jim Robinson

If you've ever thought of a FReeper of the Year award, dvwjr deserves it.


25 posted on 10/31/2004 7:37:58 AM PST by AmishDude (It's ZOTerrific.)
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To: dangus
Amazing... Bush actually IMPROVED, relative to the partisan breakdown. What's up with Fox trying to dispirit the base?

The problem with all these tracking polls is that their Friday and Saturday polling shows a marked increase in the number of Democrats in the electorate. Apparently there are more Democrats available via phone on Fridays and Saturdays (high school football in the heartland perchance?). It's not a conspiracy, just sloppy work.

As our intrepid correspondent has shown, when you adjust the party ID numbers, Bush actually had a better day polling in Saturday's poll than in Friday's poll.

Any move toward Kerry, whether actual or due to sampling, makes me nervous, because you just never know for sure. But I'd still guesstimate that Bush has a 2-3 point lead overall, and that there's no sign of any real slippage.

26 posted on 10/31/2004 7:51:23 AM PST by Numbers Guy
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To: Numbers Guy
That's the 64 thousand dollar question for all pollsters. What is the proportion of Republicans, Democrats and Independents this year. If the Republicans have finally approached parity (or above) with the Democrats in the general public, then the Bush re-election (from a 'popular' vote standard) is reassured. By the Dick Morris data-model standard - any nation-wide 'popular' vote victory margin of 0.70% or above will lead to an electoral college win for Bush, while anything below could lead to an EC tie or of course loss...

I also believe my theory even more strongly that when you are in the last two weeks of an election then the partisan affiliation self-identification of the Republicans and Democrats does NOT bounce around (how they vote might) so any polls that show a difference simply due to the R/D/I split variations should be suspect. Independents for Bush or Kerry I understand, liberal self-identified Republican for Kerry I understand, conservative to moderate self-identified Democrats for Bush I understand (think Ron Silver, Ed Koch) but these other cases the pollsters claim I do not...

Can't wait for the final results (victory!) and from the data-crunching perspective the detailed exit poll numbers from the new organization replacing VNS will be great to look at to see the composition of the American electorate. My hope is that this is the year that the Republican Party regains its status as the majority party as it was from the Civil War to the Great Depression...

dvwjr
27 posted on 10/31/2004 8:28:50 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: dangus

It's just not the Fox poll, most seem to show stability as the numbers for the base of Republicans and Democrats for Bush and Kerry. The Independents in most polls have been trending slightly towards Bush for the last two weeks (however these Fox News polls have shown the opposite until Friday) but if Fox has another poll out today we can look at that one and add to this thread...


dvwjr


28 posted on 10/31/2004 8:35:18 AM PST by dvwjr
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To: dvwjr

Top drawer as always. This is probablt OT, but I noticed that Zogby has it tied at 48% this morning. Given the already known biases involved, this is good news. Keep it up until Tuesday night (or Wednesday if there are lawsuits)


29 posted on 10/31/2004 8:41:22 AM PST by eddiebear
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To: dvwjr

You can really see the weekend polling effect coming in, doesn't it? Lots of Dem pickup. Internals show the same thing.


30 posted on 10/31/2004 8:58:51 AM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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