Posted on 10/31/2004 12:29:13 PM PST by anonposter
So what did the Bushies see that others did not?
Despite a wall of pundits conceding Kerry to Michigan, despite 37 of 40 polls tracking Kerry with comfortable margins, the Bushies still believed. They stepped up their Michigan efforts in these final weeks. And now, two days before Election Day, there it is in black and white: Kerry and Bush in a dead heat for Michigan according to The Detroit News and Zogby polls.
While the Bush Team won’t tell you directly, their Michigan faith seems to center on three factors: turnout, minorities, and multi-state strategy.
On turnout. Conventional wisdom says Republicans win when turnout is low; Democrats when turnout is high. Nonsense, says RNC chair Ed Gillespie. “We believe high turnout is good for us,” he said Friday. “My mentor was Haley Barbour, and he taught me that if we can get out our base of families, cultural conservatives, etc. we can win elections.” This would seem to vindicate the massive ad buying by Bush in conservative West Michigan – initially seen as a sign of weakness by a candidate unsure of his base. Instead, the strategy may be driving more people inclined to vote Republican to the polls. In black and union Southeast Michigan, on the other hand, the Bushies may be counting on low turnout for Kerry, who has inspired little passion among key Democratic voting blocs.
On minorities. Perhaps the Bushies see what The Wall Street Journal reported Friday: “Fresh support among traditionally Democratic Jewish and African American voters may have helped tighten races in normally Democratic New Jersey and Michigan.”
Seeking to exploit an opening among culturally-conservative blacks – one poll recently put 18 percent of black voters in Bush’s column – the president reportedly met with 26 African-American leaders, including ministers, politicians, and Don King, during his Pontiac stop last Wednesday.
And while Bush only received 19 percent of the Jewish vote versus Gore/Lieberman in 2000, there is evidence the politically active ethnic group is responding to Bush’s Mideast message. A poll, taken by the liberal American Jewish Committee this summer, gave Bush 25 percent of the Jewish vote, and Jewish Republican activists like Moe Freedman, founder of Detroit’s “Jews for George,” say there has been a noticeable rise in support since then.
On a multi-state strategy. “Michigan is not a state that I think Democrats wanted to be spending their resources or the candidates time in the final days of the race,” says Bush senior strategist Matthew Dowd. Indeed, if Kerry loses Michigan, he cannot win the country.
So by forcing Kerry to defend traditionally-Democratic turf like Michigan, Republicans are better positioned to battle him in states like Florida and Ohio. And, of course, there’s the added bonus of even winning Michigan – a blow to Kerry that would ensure a second Bush term.
FWIW, I was at the Bush Rally at the Pontiac Silverdome last Wednesday and I was surprised at the Jewish turnout. They were even out front handing out bumper stickers, posters and selling "Jews for Bush" t'shirts......... Good for them, maybe they can get thru to the NY Jewish community
ok i'm home now...2 more days...and then it's all over!! Felt food to make those calls.
oops...I must be hungry...I meant good...not food...
I am from a small town in Saginaw Co. My brother live there and alway vote for the rats.
I talk to him about the election. ----He does not like Kerry and mad about the Rats treatment of Gephardt------He stated you can not trust that %^#$$ man. ---most people will vote for Bush in this union town, and always votes Rat--
I think they will be there. The marriage amendment is on the ballot and I think that will bring a lot of people out that might otherwise sit it out.
I know...my husband is a member of UAW...he says most of the people are breaking rank with the leadership. I called a few union people tonight and I think the marriage ammendment is going to bring out the Christians and that will break it towards Bush...
The Catholic volunteer effort is immense. DOMA will lead Michigan into sealing the blowout Tuesday night. Deo Gratias!
"...and I think the marriage ammendment is going to bring out the Christians and that will break it towards Bush..."
Who can argue with the Queen? You are right on! And beautiful too.
Arkansas
Georgia
Kentucky
Michigan
Mississippi
Montana
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Utah
This means big conservative turnout.
That's right...I'm the Queen, that's why...I have that saying on a T-Shirt...lol...I only wish. I really think Michigan will go for Bush. Maybe it's wishful thinking. I won't let myself think any other way. I snuck over on DU this afternoon for about 30 seconds. Man they are a depressing bunch. Swearing, name calling, filth! And that was just their pet names to each other!
The Polish Catholics are upset with Kerry (Kerry did not mention Poland in debate as part of force in Iraq). The Jewish community is upset because Kerry's strongest supporters in Michigan are Arab-American's -- which raises concern about the security of Israel.
Then the African-American ministers are pushing against gay marriage -- trying to get people to vote for a Ban on Gay Marriage. But Kerry is in favor of Gay Marriage. These African-American ministers know right from wrong, and there not enthused into whipping up the vote for Kerry (his immorality is a factor).
Add this up, and Michigan might be a surprise with Pennsylvania. New Jersey is in play, as well as Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
There are not enough resources to try to hold ground or gain ground in all these areas, and focus on Florida and Ohio.
Sean Connery once said he would never make another James Bond film, but he did. It was called something like Never say Never Again.
The big M of Michigan and Momentum seems to be swinging to Bush in a number of places.
But the awful thing is that I had a Kerry flier and a DOMA flier on my car after Mass today.
I wish it had been a Bush flier, but I have to say that there are more Bush stickers on cars than Kerry in the parking lot.
Thank you SO MUCH for making the effort to make those calls! I am really appreciative of folks like you who are making the extra push. God bless you!
Aw, thank you for that nice encouragement...That gives me strength for tomorrow...God bless you...
Haley was not alone. He was co-chair with a lady named Evelyn McPhail, another great American.
Grab some co-Q 10 and B complex and GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I remember lefletting cars for Right to Life in church parking lots during mass, we'd get the mass schedules and hit as many as we could the couple of Sundays before the election. Sadly, one priest called the cops on me and my two kids, but we'd left before they got there.
Bill
Yes, make those calls. We are doing them out here in CA. Just in case a Bush landslide depresses voter turnout of Dems here in CA. If you guys can win Michigan, we have a chance.
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