Iranian Alert - November 10, 2004 [EST]- IRAN LIVE THREAD - "Americans for Regime Change in Iran"

Russia Plays Major Role in Iran's Foreign Policy

Russian Information Agency - Report Section
Nov 10, 2004

TEHRAN - "Russia plays an important role in Iran's foreign policy, and Tehran has always sought strategic and all-round ties with the Russian Federation," Iranian Vice President Reza Aref said at a meeting with St Petersburg Governor Valentina Matviyenko, reports the president's administration.

"By removing certain obstacles and defining their private sectors' realistic potentials the two countries will intensify bilateral cooperation," said Mr Aref.

The Iranian government's special headquarters that handle Russian-Iranian trade and economic relations demonstrates Tehran's interest in promoting bilateral ties, according to Mr Aref.

Mr Aref expressed hope that trade turnover between Russia and Iran would exceed $5 billion in the future through employing their potentials and exchanging expertise.

Mr Aref said Petersburg was a major cultural and economic centre in Russia and urged more intensive contacts between Russian and Iranian regions, above all, in the trade, scientific and cultural spheres.

On Wednesday, Ms Matviyenko is expected to hold meetings with the authorities of Isfaghan, Petersburg's twin town.

Friend and Foe

Center for Security Policy - Decision Brief
Nov 10, 2004

Washington, D.C. -- Throughout history, troops like those brave Americans currently liberating Fallujah have demanded the identity of people approaching their lines with the challenge "Who goes there: Friend or foe?" In the case of Tony Blair, the British prime minister whose esteemed stature in the Bush White House has been recognized by an invitation to be the first foreign leader to congratulate the President on his reelection in person, the answer might be "Both."

To be sure, Mr. Blair has amply demonstrated his friendship with America and its leader by his stalwart performance to date on Iraq. In the face of withering criticism at home, most especially within his own Labor Party, the PM has proven a worthy successor to Margaret Thatcher, the famed Iron Lady of 10 Downing Street.

Three of Mr. Blair's Wrongheaded Ideas

It would be a mistake, however, to permit our gratitude for such solidarity and our admiration for Mr. Blair's pluck to obscure the necessary clear-eyed assessment of certain of his other policy proclivities that are, if not actually hostile, then at least contrary to U.S. interests and ill-advised. Three items on (or behind) Mr. Blair's agenda during this week's state visit illustrate his other aspect, a side of the man of which Mr. Bush should be wary:

"Solving" the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: For some time, Mr. Blair has insisted that, as he put it last week, this issue is "the single most pressing political challenge in our world today." He has for months tried to parlay his high standing with George W. Bush into something the President understands quite well: political capital. The idea has been to expend it in such a way as to make U.S. policy track with that of the other notoriously anti-Israel members of the so-called "Quartet" - the European Union, the United Nations and Russia.

While Mr. Blair bided his time during the U.S. election crunch, he comes to Washington intent on cashing in. He will try to euchre Mr. Bush into agreeing to compel Israel to make sweeping territorial and other concessions to the Palestinians, without regard for the real and abiding danger posed to democracy's only real and reliable outpost in the Middle East. Such concessions have been met in the past with greater violence, born of the inevitable conclusion that the more terrorism is waged against Israel, the more Israel will be forced to accept the terrorists' demands. The fact that this strategy has not worked in the past and is wholly incompatible with the Bush-Blair policy approach in Iraq seems not to trouble the Prime Minister. It cannot be ignored by the President.

"Containing" Iran: The Prime Minister will also be seeking Mr. Bush's support for the latest in a series of unsavory diplomatic efforts undertaken by Britain, France and Germany and aimed at preventing Islamist Iran from realizing its ill-concealed nuclear weapons ambitions. The Associated Press reported on Monday that "a major breakthrough" was achieved in negotiations last weekend resulting in "a preliminary agreement at the expert level."

Unfortunately, it is absolutely predictable that this "breakthrough" - which Iran's chief negotiator said would, if approved by his government and its European interlocutors, result in "an important change in Iran's relations with Europe and much of the international community in the not-too-distant future" - will go the way of previous efforts to appease Tehran: In due course, it will be supplanted by fresh evidence that Iran continues to acquire nuclear weapons-related technology and capabilities. The United States has no interest in endorsing what amounts to political cover and protection for the further covert pursuit of such activities. Mr. Blair must be firmly if cordially told "Thanks, but no thanks."

"United States of Europe": One item that Mr. Blair may just as soon have go unremarked, but that should be taken up by Mr. Bush nonetheless is the damage the Prime Minister is doing to the Anglo-American "special relationship" by signing onto a European Constitution largely dictated by the French and Germans. Although John Kerry and his ilk would have us believe the recent Franco-German animus over Iraq was a product of President Bush's diplomatic shortcomings in the run-up to the war, actually something far bigger was at work - bigger even than the bribes Saddam paid his French and German friends through the Oil-for-Food scam.

France's Jacques Chirac and Germany's Gerhard Schroeder make no secret of their determination to build a united Europe that will be at least diplomatically and economically a rival to American power and an insurmountable obstacle to its exercise. This goal animates the policies Paris and Berlin are applying in every arena and the French and Germans seek through an appalling new constitution to create institutions, bureaucracies and assorted policy mechanisms to assure conformity on the part of Britain and the heretofore pro-American "New Europeans" recently added to the EU.

The Bottom Line

The European Constitution is neither in America's interest nor that of a sovereign and independent Great Britain - the nation that has for so long proven to be an important and valued friend to this country. The fact that Tony Blair has been obliged to submit the document to a referendum offers hope that his people will repudiate it and, in so doing, improve the chances that this relationship will remain special, indeed - and an especially necessary bulwark against the sorts of evils that will arise were we foolishly to sacrifice Israel to, among others, a nuclear-armed Iran.

Nuclear fissures in Iran

By Safa Haeri

PARIS - Although Iran and three European powers have reached a preliminary agreement over Tehran's controversial nuclear program, the ball is in Tehran's hands, where the final decision will be taken.

"An intense debate is raging among Iranian ruling clerics over the issue of nuclear programs. On the one hand you have the so-called ultras, most of them sitting in the most powerful but shadowy League of Islamic Associations, that has recently changed its status to the Party of Islamic Associations, pushing hard for emulating North Korea by ending talks with the Europeans, getting out of both the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] and the Non-Proliferation Treaty [NPT]," a source told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity during a short stopover in a European capital.

"On the other, there are the so-called pragmatists, led by Hojjatoleslam Hasan Rohani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme Council of National Security [SCNS] and the regime's senior negotiator with both the IAEA and the European trio, namely Britain, France and Germany, warning the other side that if Iran does not show flexibility in satisfying the demands formulated by the IAEA and the Big Three, one might expect catastrophe, specially now that George W Bush has been re-elected comfortably as president of the United States," he added.

After the weekend's talks in Paris, the Europeans are optimistic that they can get Iran to reach an agreement that will avoid it being referred to the United Nations Security Council and avert the risk of sanctions over its nuclear program. Iran has to be persuaded to suspend its uranium-enrichment program indefinitely as a way to ensure that it does not use the technology to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran has insisted that the suspension be no longer than six months and has sought assurances that it will not be asked to permanently revoke its right to have a nuclear-energy program.

According to the pragmatists in Iran, if the Europeans do not get satisfaction, they will side with Washington - which wants the issue to go before the UN - and in a situation where Iran has no friends, apart perhaps from China, the face the risk of sanctions.

In one of their proposals to Iran last month, the European trio offered a package of "stick and carrots", including a light-water research reactor, fuel for the reactors under construction with Russian assistance and possible investment in Iran's future nuclear-powered electricity plants against Iran's firm pledge to suspend indefinitely uranium enrichment and related activities, such as reprocessing uranium and building centrifuges used to enrich it, proposals that Tehran rejected, stressing that "the right to master the sensitive nuclear fuel cycle, including enrichment, is our legitimate right that we shall never give up".

"We will not accept any constraint. It is us who will decide on the duration [of a suspension of enrichment] and we will keep it in place for as long as we want," noted Elias Naderan, a conservative lawmaker. "We have mastered the full nuclear fuel cycle and this project has reached the point of no return. The Europeans must now recognize this fact as a red line."

Ironically, it appears that the ultras are after a "catastrophe scenario", hoping that in the event of harsh sanctions or even an attack on its nuclear facilities by the US or Israel, the population, now massively against the regime, would fall in line behind the ruling mullahs and their nuclear ambitions.

"The final word must come from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the regime. But so far he seems either undecided or incapable of taking sides. Although he himself reiterates that Iran is not after nuclear weapons, stressing that such arms are banned by Islam, by reading his mouthpieces in conservative-controlled newspapers like Kayhan or Jomhouri Eslami, one gets the impression that he is for the North Korean option," the source explained to Asia Times Online.

Last week, Khamenei repeated that Iran, because of its "religious jurisdictions", was not after nuclear arms, and taking a cue from his "directives", several lawmakers at the conservative-dominated Majlis, or parliament, announced a plan aimed at banning the production of nuclear weapons.

According to Hoseyn Moussavian, Iran's chief negotiator with the Big Three, the preliminary agreement worked out in Paris during a marathon 22-hour session could be finalized "in the next few days", but then it would have to be confirmed in the capitals of the concerned parties.

"We had 22 hours of very difficult and complicated negotiations, but we reached a preliminary agreement at the expert level, with the Europeans accepting eight out of 10 proposals we presented, including the one that says the time of suspension of enriching uranium must be decided by Iran," Moussavian said, adding that the four countries must now ask their governments to approve the accord.

If approved, the deal - of which few details are known - would stop the Vienna-based IAEA's board of directors from sending Iran's case to the Security Council.

The US, alongside Israel and some European nations, accuses the Iranian ayatollahs of being in the process of building atomic weapons by diverting nuclear technologies for nuclear-powered reactors they have under construction with the assistance of Russia.

"If this [preliminary agreement] is approved by all four parties, we will witness an important change in Iran's relations with Europe and much of the international community in [the] not-too-distant future," Moussavian said without elaborating.

On October 20, Rohani and foreign affairs ministers from Britain, France and Germany reached an agreement in Tehran stipulating that Iran would suspend uranium enrichment and sign the additional protocol to the NPT, a clause that allows international nuclear inspectors to visit all Iranian nuclear projects and sites without restriction, but refused to stop other related activities, such as reprocessing uranium or building centrifuges, insisting its program was intended purely for the production of fuel for nuclear power generation. Uranium enrichment is permitted under the NPT, to which Iran is a signatory and which is being enforced by the IAEA.

However, a source told the official Iranian news agency IRNA in Paris that the talks remained deadlocked as the Iranian side did not accept the European proposal for an indefinite suspension of uranium enrichment, while the European side was not satisfied with Tehran's guarantee that it would never use nuclear technology for military purposes.

"Following difficult discussions, the two sides have achieved considerable progress towards a preliminary agreement on a joint approach to the questions," a French foreign-affairs spokesman told journalists.

To give Europe a firm sign that Iran is not trying to produce an atomic bomb, a weapon that Israel says would be used to attack the Jewish state, some Iranian lawmakers announced on Monday that they were collecting support for a draft bill banning the production of nuclear weapons.

Legislator Mahmoud Mohammadi told the US news agency The Associated Press that the bill could be presented to the Majlis next week, adding that the draft was prompted by a religious verdict by Khamenei.

"Ayatollah Khamenei's verdict is clear," Mohammadi observed. "So why not make the production of nuclear weapons illegal under Iranian law?"

But the idea was criticized by radical newspapers controlled by the conservatives. "Iran is a member of the NPT. Our leaders have reiterated that we are not using nuclear technologies for military purposes. But this bill runs against all our logic since it looks like confirming the views of our enemies making wrong accusations against Iran," wrote the evening daily Kayhan.

Safa Haeri is a Paris-based Iranian journalist covering the Middle East and Central Asia.

Iran bars showing of 'insulting' photos in Paris

AFP - World News
Nov 10, 2004

TEHRAN - Iran has blocked four local photographers from exhibiting some of their work in Paris after certain pictures were deemed to be "against Islamic values and mocking the image of Iranian women."

Sources close to the dispute said Tehran's state-run Museum of Contemporary Art had been due to support the photographers by paying for the packing and shipping of their work so it can appear at the Paris Photo exhibition at the Carrousel du Louvre from November 11-14.

"When the museum sponsors the works it has certain authorities," a spokesman for the museum, Farhad Badpa, told AFP.

"The works that were against Islamic values or mocked the image of Iranian women were omitted. Other works by these artists that did not insult Islamic values were sent to the exhibition."

The four photographers are Shadi Ghadirian, Ramin Haerizadeh, Yalda Amiri and Arash Hanai.

"The museum has offered me no explanation," complained Ghadirian, whose photos feature women clad head to toe in the traditional chador with housekeeping objects - such as pots, kettles and irons - for a face.

"These pictures are reflecting me as an Iranian woman," she asserted. "How can I insult and ridicule my own sex? I do not show anything that crosses the red lines like faces or flesh in my work."

This year the Paris Photo exhibition features 105 galleries from 16 countries.

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Russia Plays Major Role in Iran's Foreign Policy

Friend and Foe

Nuclear fissures in Iran

Iran bars showing of 'insulting' photos in Paris

'Blast' in Isfahan ammunition plant