Posted on 01/03/2005 12:34:11 PM PST by Pyro7480
Scientists: Tsunami Could Hit West Coast
Tsunami scientists and public safety officials are closely watching an earthquake-prone nation with thousands of miles of crowded coastlines for signs of an imminent disaster. Indonesia? Japan? Try the United States.
Experts say the West Coast could experience a calamity similar to the one they have been watching unfold half a world away.
"People need to know it could happen," said geologist Brian Atwater of the U.S. Geological Survey.
Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast. They are a loaded gun that could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes — too fast for the nation's deep-sea tsunami warning system to help.
In fact, Atwater said there was a 9.0 earthquake under the Pacific more than 300 years ago that had devastating consequences. He and other scientists last year reported finding evidence of severe flooding in the Puget Sound area in 1700, including trees that stopped growing after "taking a bath in rising tide waters."
The danger rests just 50 miles off the West Coast in a 680-mile undersea fault known as the Cascadia subduction zone that behaves much like one that ruptured off Sumatra. The 1700 quake occurred along the Cascadia fault.
Scientists say a giant rupture along the fault would cause the sea floor to bounce 20 feet or more, setting off powerful ocean waves relatively close to shore. The first waves could hit coastal communities in 30 minutes or less, according to computer models.
Seattle; Vancouver, British Columbia; and other big cities in the region probably would be relatively protected from deadly flooding because of their inland locations. But other, smaller communities could be devastated.
And while buildings in the United States are far more solid than the shacks and huts that were obliterated in some of Asia's poor villages, few structures could withstand nearby tremors as powerful as those that occurred Sunday in Sumatra.
Moreover, such a quake would be way too close to shore for the nation's network of deep-sea wave gauges to be of any help.
Even in the case of quakes happening farther out in the Pacific or in Alaska, the U.S. warning system might not be adequate.
The network — which consists of six deep-sea instruments in Alaska, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii and near the equator off the coast of Peru — is thin and scattered, and at least two of the gauges in Alaska are not even reporting daily wave readings. Also, predicting where a tsunami is likely to come ashore cannot be done with the kind of precision seen in hurricane forecasts.
Eddie N. Bernard, who directs the network for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the six sensors are the "bare minimum" for adequate warning. He said there are plans to expand the system to 20 sensors in the next five years, including 10 gauges for the seismically active Aleutian Islands.
Whether the continental United States is vulnerable to tsunamis from Asian earthquakes is another question. Hawaii and parts of Alaska certainly are exposed, but whether earthquake fault lines in Japan and Southeast Asia are oriented in the right directions to send tsunamis all the way to the Lower 48 states is debatable.
As for the Atlantic Coast, a tsunami is considered extremely unlikely.
Some computer models suggest East Coast cities are vulnerable to a large tsunami if there were a huge volcanic eruption and landslide in the Canary Islands, off northwest Africa. But other researchers say such an event would happen only once in 10,000 years, and such a disruption is unlikely to occur all at once.
Never say never. Though it would take hours for a tsunami wave to get across the Atlantic, and the global seismic detection network would probably pick it up, I wouldn't bet lives on a one in 10,000 year chance.
If they could predict when, it would be a BIG help. I wouldn't mind seeing a gathering of Hollywood celebs at a posh resort on the coast at that time.
Well, if a tsunami hits the west coast of the U.S., it's a fair bet me and mine won't live to see another day. We're right on the beachfront and travelling inland on California's ridiculously crowded roads is a lesson in futility. Even if we had a full 24 hours advance warning, we wouldn't be able to get more than 10 miles in unless we walked...armed to the teeth.
Y'all have fun with that, California.
The Canary Island thing is unlikely, but if it does happen it will take out many East Coast cities. Even with hours of warning I doubt if you could evacuate these cities.
I wouldnt turn down a nice waterfront home at Myrtle Beach if the price was right. Hell your own home is more likely to burn down with you in it than a Tsunami. Too many ways for a person to die for me to worry about a Tsunami every 10,000 years.
Most of the West coast has high bluffs or cliffs, so a tsunami would only carry away structures down near the water.
It's always been known that California and the Pacific coast generally are earthquake prone. People take their chances because they like living there.
And considering that in California, it's against the law to be armed to the teeth, sounds like you're pretty well scrod.
Now what are the odds of winning a large lottery and, people play those odds to win????
Well, if that volcano is turned into bombing range, one could chip off and landslide that mountain into the sea little by little, taking a dollar in pennies, as it were. That way there'd be no tsunami, and there would be a good training ground for the bomber pilots.
I better get an ark ready.
Does CA have clearly marked "Tsunami Evacuation Route" signs along the coast roads?
It's been a while since I've driven along the PCH.
Do you remember the tsunami warning around 1977 in southern CA when there was a massive earthquake in Japan? We were living in Huntington Beach than.
That should be more than enough.
More likely to happen on the west coast, but could also happen on the east coast. I was reading though that the maximum height of the wave is limited by the depth of the water. They apparently believe that the wave could not get much higher than about 20 feet here in Central Florida.
Plus, I'm sure that when it does hit, the rest of the world will be offering lots of aid and support, right? Aren't they always there for us when we need them?
Blah blah blah... We could get hit by a meteor too.
This is the classic "it's a slow news day so lets scare the sheep" story.
A system is alrady in place.
See above.
He calculates that its flank could collapse the next time the volcano, Cumbre Vieja, erupts.
If so, that would send a dome-shaped wall of water up to 100 metres high racing across the Atlantic at 800 kilometres per hour, hitting the western coast of Africa and southern coast of England within a few hours.
Some eight hours after the collapse, the US East Coast and Caribbean would bear the brunt. Cities from Miami to New York would get swamped by waves up to 50 metres high, capable of surging up to 20 kilometres inland, according to Day's research.
While some researchers discount this, we have to remember that it is very difficult to make timeline predictions in matters such as this. Also, there are NO warning devices on the East coast, only the West coast.
Tsunami's are in ... comets are out ... global warming is on hold.
Or is it Tsunami's are in ... global warming is out ... comets are on hold?
I also heard from another source that the big East Coast thingie would start at the New England coast and go down to Miami. But what was interesting was that they said it would flood 20 km inland...I'd be wiped out; I live 7 miles inland.
Scientists: Tsunami Could Hit West Coast
A tsunami could possibly strike an ocean coastline situated on a hotbed of tectonic activity?
If it weren’t “scientists” making this outlandish claim, I would be very skeptical.
I disagree. One fart from Jerry Nadler while he swims in the Atlantic Ocean could take down Lower Manhatten.
El Nino's plotting with Road Rage and Shark Attacks to get back in the news.
Just make sure that Arnold and all of Hollyweird are on the beaches at the time.
seismic yes but I don't think there are any detection bouys in the Atlantic......
Its that...and more.
Its opportunistic scientists looking for Federal grant money. A frightened public will now ask their Congresscritters, "why aren't we looking into this???" Looking for votes, Congress will gladly give these scientists our money for more computer modelling, despite the fact that a safety system is already in place.
I think that a warning system is a good idea but as for me if I felt or heard of a quake I would immediately beat feet to higher ground not go out to the beach to see the pretty waves.
too bad......but by west coast they mean Washington, Oregon and maybe the tip of Northern Calif........most likely won't reach us in the BAy Area though I wouldn't mind a few breakers washing up to Pelosi and Boxer's front door.....
Muleteam1
If you had that kind of warning...why wouldn't you use bikes or motor bikes? Who would want to be stuck in their cars on those packed roads. Aren't bikes a good option with backpacks and money for supplies once you get to where you are going? I'm serious. Not being funny. I just wonder if you could take that route?
you are right on there.....most people don't realize that north of SF, the coastline is very rugged, cliffs, bluffs etc...all the beaches are SF and down......if a tsunami was big enough to get over many of those cliffs it would have to be over 100 ft plus
>>See above.<<
Yes. See my comment about being hit by a meteor.
This article is a task for professional worriers, with nothing better to do.
"Well, if a tsunami hits the west coast of the U.S., it's a fair bet me and mine won't live to see another day."
Get in a boat and go a couple miles out to sea -- the deeper the better.
Good point. I guess plenty of people in the earth sciences see financial opportunity in a Tsunami.
bump
Actually, I wasn't kidding...even here in WA, we have marked evacuation routes...because of the topography, some of them might be unusable with short notice situations, but at least some attention has been directed to the possibility.
LOL we bad, I was just thinking as long as Babs is sitting on the beach!
I haven't been down the whole coast, but Seattle should be protected by the Olympic Peninsula, Oregon is pretty steep, and so is Northern California. Of course there are exceptions, and a lot of people could get hurt, but it's nothing like as vulnerable as some coastlines.
"Well, if a tsunami hits the west coast of the U.S., it's a fair bet me and mine won't live to see another day."
Get some elephants.
Nawwwww. Ya think???
Oregon does.
You mean all those houses the lefty Hollywood types live in?
We (Central Oregon Coast) just had a bouy go off coarse and land way N. up in Washington due to a severe storm.
My thought has been would they be any good if a Tsunami came through? Or can they be knocked off coarse which renders null the info they provide.
Some of the waves could still come in on the Sound, is my understanding. It might cause some flooding at lower elevations. We are up in elevation far enough that I am not too concerned about the water where I live, though.
The reason I asked was I definitely remember seeing evac signs all down 101 this summer through WA and OR, but can't remember any after Brookings....was just a little curious.
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