Posted on 01/11/2005 12:17:59 AM PST by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Iran may resume uranium enrichment in March
10 Jan 2005 13:32:47 GMTSource: Reuters
By Parisa Hafezi
TEHRAN, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Iran may resume uranium enrichment -- which can be used to make atomic bombs -- in March if talks with the European Union fail to yield satisfactory progress, a senior Iranian security official said on Monday.
Even if the talks go well, Hossein Mousavian told Reuters Tehran was only prepared to extend until June the enrichment freeze it began in late November in an effort to disprove U.S. accusations it is seeking nuclear weapons.
"The outcome of the talks will have a great impact on Iran's decision," said Mousavian, a member of Iran's nuclear negotiating team with the EU and head of the foreign policy committee on the Supreme National Security Council.
"If the talks end without any result, March itself could be the date for resuming enrichment.
"If the outcome is really fruitful ... and develops in a direction of comprehensive and strategic cooperation between Iran and Europe, there will be a chance of extending the suspension for three more months."
Tehran has consistently said its freeze on nuclear work was voluntary and would last only a matter of months. But the possibility enrichment could resume as soon as March is likely to concern Washington, which has given only lukewarm support to the EU initiative to engage with the Islamic state.
Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons but agreed to freeze sensitive atomic work, including uranium enrichment, last year to avoid referral to the United Nations Security Council, where it could have faced economic sanctions.
Led by Britain, Germany and France, the EU is trying to persuade Iran to give up work that could be used to make atomic warheads in return for a package of incentives including trade deals and help with a civilian nuclear programme.
WON'T SCRAP FUEL CYCLE
Iran-EU working groups dealing with economic, security and technological issues are due to complete the first phase of the talks by mid-March.
But Mousavian said Iran would never scrap its nuclear fuel cycle work and was only prepared to give "objective guarantees" that it will not divert nuclear fuel into bomb making.
"If the Europeans' problem is the fuel cycle, then negotiations are useless," he said.
"But if they are concerned about us building nuclear bombs, we are fully prepared for a comprehensive arrangement to give all assurances that Iran will not seek nuclear bombs."
Tehran says it needs the nuclear fuel cycle to feed atomic reactors for generating electricity to meet growing demand.
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency which has been investigating Iran's nuclear programme for the past two years, said last week the jury was still out on Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Russia has said it will finish building Iran's first atomic reactor in the southern port of Bushehr next year.
Fuel for the plant is supposed to be supplied by Russia. But Tehran is baulking at the price Moscow wants to charge it for returning the spent fuel to Russia to prevent Iran reprocessing it into weapons-grade material.
"This fuel is becoming very expensive for us and by this the Russians are encouraging us to become more and more independent and produce our own fuel," Mousavian said.
US and Iraq All Set for Strike against Syria. Israel Is Braced for Hizballah Second Front
DEBKAfile Special Military Report Updating DEBKA-Net-Weekly 188
January 11, 2005, 2:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
US warns Syria to keep its newly-purcahsed Kornet AT-14 anti-tank missile out of Iraq
Last Sunday, January 2, US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage performed his last major mission before stepping down in favor of Robert B. Zoellick, whom incoming secretary Condoleezza Rice has picked as her deputy. (Zoellick, currently trade representative in charge US world trade, served as deputy to secretary of state James Baker in the Reagan and Bush Sr. administrations.
This mission took Armitage to Damascus with nine American demands.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources published those demands for the first time in its last week’s issue:
To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .
1. Start repealing Syria’s 40-years old emergency laws.
2. Free all political prisoners from jail.
3. Abolish media censorship.
4. Initiate democratic reform.
5. Speed up economic development
6. Cut down relations with Iran.
7. Announce publicly that the disputed Shebaa Farms at the base of Mt. Hermon are former Syrian territory. This would cut the ground from under the Lebanese terrorist Hizballah’s claim that the land is Lebanese and must be “liberated” from Israeli “occupation.”
DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report that the Iran-sponsored Hizballah’s attack on an Israeli convoy patrolling the disputed Shebaa Farms sector, killing an Israeli officer, on Palestinian election-day, Sunday, January 9, was addressed as much to President George W. Bush as to the new Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas as a foretaste of what it has in store.
8. Hand over to US or Iraqi authorities 55 top officials and military officers of the former Saddam regime, who are confirmed by intelligence to be established in Syria and running the guerrilla war in Iraq out of their homes and offices.
(An address, telephone number and cell phone number were listed beside each name).
But the punchline was in the last demand.
9. Syria had better make sure that none of the Kornet AT-14 anti-tank missiles which it recently purchased in large quantities from East Europe turn up in Iraq. US intelligence has recorded their serial numbers to identify their source. DEBKAfile’s military sources add: Because he cannot afford to buy advanced fighter planes and tanks, Assad purchased massive quantities of the “third generation” Kornet AT-14 anti-tank weapons.
Just in case any are found in Iraq, General Casey, commander of US forces in Iraq has already received orders from the commander-in-chief in the White House to pursue military action inside Syria according to his best military judgment.
Number 9 therefore incorporates a tangible threat. The American general has the authority to launch military action against Syria as he sees fit and without delay if Damascus continues to meddle in Iraq’s affairs.
DEBKAfile adds:
The Syrian ruler protested to Armitage that he is doing everything he can to hold back the flow of guerrilla fighters and weapons into Iraq. As proof, he ordered Syria’s chief of staff General Ali Habib to establish a forward command center on the Syrian-Iraq border to oversee efforts to control border traffic on the spot.
The fact is that General Habib is one of the few Syrian officers which the Americans have trusted. He commanded the Syrian units dispatched to Saudi Arabia in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq and made friends with the US commanders and officials conducting the war, including vice president Dick Cheney and the then head of joint chiefs of staff, Colin Powell. However, even Habib’s old American buddies do not rule out the possibility that he was posted to the border not to restrain the traffic but to take command of Syrian units posted there and prepare them for the contingency of an American military offensive.
Assad and General Habib are both aware, according to our sources, of the near carte blanche handed down to General Casey to pursue military action against Syria as and when indicated by US military requirements in Iraq.
In this regard, DEBKAfile’s military sources note four important points:
1. It will not take place before President Bush is sworn in for his second term on January 20 or Iraq’s general election ten days later.
2. The Americans will not start out with a large-scale, orderly military offensive, but rather short in-and-out forays; small US and Iraqi special forces units will cross the border and raid bases housing Iraqi guerrillas or buses carrying them to the border. If these brief raids are ineffective, the Americans will upscale the action.
3. The Allawi government will formally request the United States to consign joint Iraqi-US forces for action against Syrian targets, so placing the US operation under the Baghdad government’s aegis. In other words, Iraq will be at war with Syria without issuing a formal declaration.
4. It is fully appreciated in Washington, Baghdad and Jerusalem that intense American military warfare against Syria could provoke a Hizballah backlash against Israel. Damascus may well activate the Lebanese Shiite group to open a second front on Israel’s northern border. The Syrian ruler is expected will tolerate a certain level of American low-intensity, low-profile action. But, because of his reluctance to strike back directly at American or Iraqi targets, he will field the Hizballah – and not just for cross-border attacks but to galvanize the terrorist cells it controls and funds in the West Bank and Gaza Strip into a stepped-up offensive against Israeli targets. These Palestinian cells have proliferated over the years, particularly in the Fatah and its branches, encouraged by Yasser Arafat’s cooperative pact with the Hizballah which remains in force after his death.
Therefore, the key Middle East happening in the coming weeks will be US military strikes against Syria. The election of Mahmoud Abbas as Palestinian Authority chairman, his invitation to the White House, the formation of the Sharon-Peres government coalition - albeit on very shaky legs, and the talk of imminent Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations, will prove to be no more than sideshows of the main event.
EU to resume trade talks with Iran
11/01/2005The EU said Tuesday it will resume trade talks with Iran this week after Tehran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, but the bloc vowed to keep up pressure in areas of concern including the Islamic state's nuclear plans.
Talks on a trade and cooperation agreement, suspended 18 months ago, will resume Wednesday, but in parallel EU negotiators will restart political talks on key issues including human rights and weapons of mass destruction.
"The resumption ... is a clear signal of our wish to work with Iran," said EU external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner.
But while underlining hopes for the talks, she made it clear that the 25-member bloc's relations with Tehran are "an important element of a wider package" which is linked to continuing adherence to commitments it has made.
"Iran can look forward to a richer relationship with the European Union, as long as the international community can be confident that Iran's nuclear programme is not being developed for military purposes," she said.
The Iran-EU trade talks, which were launched in December 2002, were suspended in mid-2003 amid mounting tensions notably over Tehran's refusal to allow snap inspections of its nuclear facilities.
The resumption follows the confirmation of Iran's suspension of its uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities by the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
But tension remains notably because Tehran has agreed to maintain the suspension of its uranium enrichment activities only as long as the EU trade talks continue.
Iran maintains that its nuclear program is strictly civilian and peaceful and that it is not developing atomic weapons.
But the United States wants the IAEA to take Iran to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions for what Washington says is a covert nuclear weapons program.
The EU commission underlined that the trade talks, which are expected to involve negotiating sessions roughly every two months, are aimed at agreeing a "first generation" trade accord with the Tehran government.
This would not give Iran any preferential access to EU markets, but would confirm its trade relations on the basis of those applying to all other World Trade Organization (WTO) members, EU officials said.
They underline that trade links with Europe are important for Iran: the EU represents 30 percent of its trade with the rest of the world, and 40 percent of its imports.
The trade talks will start Wednesday, and will be followed Thursday by the resumption of political talks notably including discussion on four key areas of concern for the EU.
These are human rights, regional security in the Middle East, support for terrorism and proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), officials said.
And officials made it clear that, while there is no direct link between the two trade negotiations and the political talks, problems in key areas of concern could lead to a new suspension of dialogue.
This could include any review of the IAEA's position. "If there was a substantial change in the assessment of the IAEA, we would have to consider what the implications would be for the negotiations," said one official.
The EU is also not forecasting how long the talks on a trade accord will last, saying it is an "open-ended process." "It will take as long as it takes to get a good agreement," said the official.
"But it is not a good idea to set artificial timelines," he added.
Removal of the MEK from the US terror list will not be taken as a positive step by pro-Democracy groups in Iran.
lol
Lots and lots of activity going on. This is going to get interesting. Remember, it's like a game of chess.
LOL, I don't feel rucky, but sometimes I feel punky!
BUMP
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