Posted on 01/13/2005 12:20:47 AM PST by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Israeli think tank: Only U.S. can neutralize Iran
SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM Wednesday, January 12, 2005
TEL AVIV — An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would pose greater risks than benefits, a new report concluded.
The Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies said an Israeli attack on Iran would fail to either destroy all of its nuclear facilities or halt the program. The report said Teheran could retaliate by launching massive rocket and missile strikes on the Jewish state — from either Iran or Lebanon.
In 1981, Israeli F-16 multi-role fighters destroyed Iraq's nuclear reactor in a single bombing mission, said to have set back Baghdad's weapons program about a decade.
"An overall assessment suggests that risks involved in an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities outweigh the opportunities," the report, authored by Ephraim Kam, said. "An attack would have to take into consideration operational and other problems that are liable to impede success, while at the same time may spark an Iranian and international response, if only a limited one."
Kam, a reserve intelligence officer and regarded as a leading analyst on Teheran's strategic weapons programs, said a military operation to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities could exceed Israel's capabilities. He said such a mission could be conducted only by a superpower such as the United States.
[On Tuesday, Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash said Iran would need another six months to acquire full capability to enrich uranium, a major component in the assembly of nuclear weapons. Addressing a seminar at Haifa University, the military intelligence chief said Iran could produce nuclear warheads as early as 2007.]
Entitled "Curbing the Iranian Nuclear Threat: The Military Option," the report asserted that Israel has failed to locate all of Iran's nuclear facilities. In contrast to Iraq, Iran has built numerous underground facilities and could quickly reconstitute its nuclear program, the report said.
Israel must fulfill a range of requirements before considering a strike on Iran, the report said. The requirements include an "accurate intelligence estimate of the state of the Iranian nuclear program" and a determination that any attack would set back Iran's nuclear program for many years.
"Consequently, the conclusion is that Israel must permit the international community to make every possible effort to halt Iran's nuclear program by diplomatic means and to consign military steps to a last resort," the report added.
"If it transpires that following the attack the completion of the program is delayed by one or two years only, it is possible that the result does not justify the risks," the report said. "It will also be necessary to take into account that the circumstances will not permit a repeated attack on major facilities that were not damaged in the first attack or that were discovered later."
The report said any Israeli attack would also require coordination with the United States. Israeli warplanes on their way to Iran would probably enter U.S. military operation zones in the Gulf or Iraq.
"Coordination with the U.S. is itself problematic: there is no certainty that the American administration would agree to such coordination, which brings with it its own set of risks, and it is not certain it would favor a military operation against Iran," the report said. "Nevertheless, the possibility cannot be excluded that the administration would be interested in Israel doing the dirty work, in order to present it as an independent Israeli operation and thereby reduce the risks of association with this operation."
The report — in contrast to the assessment by Israeli military intelligence — said Iran appears to no longer depend on foreign suppliers for the acquisition of nuclear technology. Iran was also believed to employ engineers and scientists who could produce enriched uranium and plutonium.
"This means that even if several major Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked, such as the centrifuges facility for uranium enrichment in Natanz, Iran would be capable of constructing replacement facilities in a short time," the report said. "Furthermore, the possibility cannot be ignored that Iran has already secretly constructed additional nuclear facilities that have not yet been identified to back up those discovered."
The retaliatory options for Iran include the launching of its intermediate-range Shihab-3 missile and massive rocket attacks by Hizbullah from Lebanon. The report said Iran could also order mass-casualty strikes against targets outside Israel.
"Given the difficulties and risks involved in implementation of the military option, Israel must adopt the position that the major burden of dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat — by both diplomatic and military means — must be borne by the U.S. administration, and not by Israel," the report said. "In the final analysis, the handling of a problem of this magnitude must be the responsibility of a superpower and not a local country."
Iran Revolutionary Guards Commander: US presence a threat
Thu. 13 Jan 2005
Iran Focus
Tehran, Jan. 13 - In an apparent reference to the presence of US troops in Iraq, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Corps (IRGC) official called for Iran to mobilize its troops against the "dangerous Zionist threat".
Speaking to Revolutionary Guards and Iran's Bassij (paramilitary police) forces in Khuzestan on Tuesday Deputy IRGC Commander Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr said, "The Islamic Republic will not tolerate American presence in the region".
"The presence of this country('s forces) poses a dangerous threat to our nation's interests", Zolqadr said.
"The (Revolutionary) Guards cannot ignore their presence", he added.
At the meeting another IRGC veteran Kazemini called for Revolutionary Guards to counter US presence.
"America wants to prevent the spread of Islamic revolution in Iraq so as to break the Shiite crescent in the region, especially in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon", he added.
Iranian rape case woman pardoned
An Iranian woman sentenced to death for killing a police official she said had tried to rape her has been pardoned by the victim's family, officials said. The family of Behzad Moghaddam agreed to accept compensation instead of seeking Afsaneh Norouzi's execution.
Iran's Supreme Court overturned Mrs Norouzi's death sentence in July but she still faced a lower court's ruling.
The mother of three, whose seven-year case prompted a human rights outcry, is expected to be freed soon.
'Self-defence'
The decision by Mr Moghaddam's family to accept a "blood money" payment of $62,500 (£33,200) instead of seeking Mrs Norouzi's life brings the case to an end.
Norouzi's freedom will give new breath to women to find the courage to stand up for their rights and defend themselves
Lawyer and activist Sara IraniA judiciary official said the death sentence could not be brought against Mrs Norouzi, now 34, again.
She and her family were visiting Mr Moghaddam, an intelligence officer on the holiday island of Kish in the Persian Gulf, in 1997 when her husband was called away.
Mrs Norouzi said she had tried to defend herself with a knife when the officer attempted to rape her.
A court in Kish eventually found her guilty of murder and condemned her to death - a sentence initially upheld by the Supreme Court last year.
However, under pressure from women's rights activists and reformist politicians, the head of the judiciary finally ordered a review before the Supreme Court, which in July quashed the death verdict.
However, it ordered a new ruling from the Kish court, which could have led to a further sentence for Mrs Norouzi.
Vulnerable victims
Mrs Norouzi had refused to plead for mercy because she believed she had justly defended herself.
Women's rights activist and lawyer Sara Irani told The Associated Press news agency she welcomed the resolution of the case.
"Norouzi's freedom will give new breath to women to find the courage to stand up for their rights and defend themselves," she said.
In Iran, a married woman who is raped risks the death penalty for adultery if she cannot prove she was violated.
If she kills her attacker, she may also face the death sentence for murder.
2005 Thursday 13 January
Iran moves to ban advertising of foreign products
TEHERAN - Reuters -Iran’s parliament has taken initial steps to pass a bill, which bans advertisement of imported products as part of a campaign against Western cultural influence, newspapers said on Thursday.
Passed by parliament’s cultural commission, the bill prohibits advertisement of imported goods on television, public places and public transport.
It will become law after being passed by parliament and ratified by the Guardian Council, Iran’s legislative watchdog.
“According to the bill, the advertisement of foreign goods are banned in public places, on state media and buses,” the semi-official Iran newspaper said.
The ban also targets posters, billboards and public signs.
Cultural commission members were not immediately available for comment.
Since the 1979 Islamic revolution, conservatives have tried unsuccessfully to ban the sale of icons of Western culture such as Barbie dolls and Coca-Cola.
Colourful advertisements promoting everything from motor oils to luxury brand watches and perfumes have mushroomed in most major cities on billboards and buses.
Here is the original link to post 11:
Radio Free Europe
Bill Samii
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/347a2c5f-088a-408b-a632-d5fc64804671.html
Bill Gertz, Treachery: How America's Friends and Foes are Secretly Arming Our Enemies, Regnery, 2004, reveals how Iran has been conducting nuclear weapons work in secret since the '80's, has over three hundred (300) sites, and lies repeatedly, all while receiving aid from France, Germany, Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan.
So, Yahoo UK & Ireland blames Israel for "doubting"--
Doubt? I have no doubt about Iran--it's lying and stonewalling while feverishly stockpiling plutonium and enriched uranium.
The attack begins in five minutes.
Thanks, DoctorZIn, for your inspirational and tireless effort in moderating this forum. Thanks to The Christian Science Monitor (and the very nice Christa Case at the editorial desk) for its publication in an only slightly truncated form that still gets all of the jist of the point across. All submittals to the Letters department are limited to 200 words and I think we all know how it difficult it can be to refrain from venting for pages and pages.
Sincere Gratitude and Hoping for A Better World in 2005, TZIM
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