Fall in EU population forecast by 2050

Daily Telegraph ^ | 09/04/2005 | David Rennie in Brussels and Toby HelmDavid Rennie in Brussels and Toby HelmD Rennnie, T Helms

[ScaniaBoy]

The population of the European Union will fall dramatically by 2050, even allowing for the arrival of millions of immigrants, an official survey reported yesterday.

Deaths would begin to outnumber births across the EU in the next five years, it predicted.

A collapse in childbirth rates and increased emigration has already caused populations to start shrinking in several of the former communist countries of eastern and central Europe that joined the EU last year.

The survey by the EU's statistics agency, Eurostat, showed that by 2013 the population of Italy would start to fall, joined a year later by Germany and Slovenia and, in 2018, by Portugal.

The population of Britain will continue to grow, peaking in 2040, followed by 10 years of gentle decline. Eurostat estimates that, by 2050, the population will be 64.3 million, compared with 59.6 million today.

Overall, the total population of the EU is expected to rise by more than 13 million between now and 2025, although after 2010 that increase will be entirely the result of immigration.

By 2025, even net migration will not be able to counteract the falling fertility of the continent and by 2050 the population of the EU will be 450 million, a decrease of more than 20 million people from the peak.

There are rare exceptions: the populations of Ireland, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta and Sweden will continue to grow even after 2050, the survey says.

The research was commissioned to try to estimate the scale of the pensions crisis that Europe will face as its population ages dramatically.

Most governments fund retirement benefits from the taxes paid by those in employment and that system will come under intolerable strain as Europe becomes greyer.

Some countries, such as Spain and Italy, face having one in three citizens over retirement age.

The European Commission said it would be sending the data to national governments in the hope of urging them to carry out vital reforms.

Some countries have ducked serious reforms. Far from reforming, France, for example, has increased its pensions burdens, bowing to pressure to lower the retirement age for certain professions and trades, such as lorry drivers, after protests and industrial action.

[CzarNicky]

I guess I am one of the few who does not believe in the bogeyman of a muslim takeover of Europe. I base my prognostication on these facts. 1 immigrants to Europe within a couple generations have children at the same rate as the Europeans 2 birthrates the world over are falling. If European immigrants birthrates fall to European standards how will the muslims takeover that way? With more immigration you say? Fat chance of that happening when the main countries they draw immigrants from are near or below fertility replacement levels.

Europe's long term problem in 2050 will not be that it is swamped by muslims but that there won't be any muslims to do the jobs they won't do. This is why they are working overtime to stop peace and prosperity throughout the middle east. Peaceful prosperous democratic states do not export people and the Europeans will need other countries to export people or they will have to *gasp* make their own.

[Savage Beast]

Europe's on life-support.

[BobL]

"immigrants to Europe within a couple generations have children at the same rate as the Europeans"

I've heard that before, but I've never seen data to support it. What I do know is that the 4 largest cities in Holland now (I think), or very soon, will have immigrant (mostly Muslims) majorities in their schools. So, if the Muslims in Europe are reducing their birthrates, they seem to be taking their sweet little time about it.

Another thing to consider. Ask a Muslim when the Crusades took place, and he will say "yesterday". They have a score to settle with Europe, and they've figured out that the best way to achieve their goals is from the inside, through demographics. As far as I know, no immigrant group has ever tried to take over a country (or countries) by out-populating their hosts, but that is exactly what the Muslims of Europe are doing today. So trying to apply patterns that would fit typical immigrant groups simply cannot work here.

Finally, while it may be true that immigrants typically (usually quickly) adopt the customs of their host country - 2nd generation Muslims, at least in France, have pulled away. Their parents were more French than they are.

[righttackle44]

S-h-h-h-h-h-h. If they haven't figured all this out by themselves, it's fully possible they DON'T know what causes babies.

[Eurotwit]

I beg to differ.

Sweden, like Norway, has birthrates below replacement level. Any population growth is due to immigration, islamic or what not.

Cheers.

[CzarNicky]

So, if the Muslims in Europe are reducing their birthrates, they seem to be taking their sweet little time about it.

I've seen it in some of the articles posted here decrying the muslim "takeover " of Europe. I suppose if you went to the four largest cities in America and looked at the schools you would see that they have black majorities and therefore the blacks are going to "takeover" America. As for the muslim woman who does noting but stick her butt in the air and pray except for when she is on her back spitting out a kid is probably as accurate as the Irish woman who is always on her kness praying except when she is on her back spitting out a kid. It's a nice story foll of intrigue and suspense but it just isn't going to happen.

Another thing to consider. Ask a Muslim when the Crusades took place, and he will say "yesterday".

In any generation of muslims in the western world about 10-15% turn apostate and leave islam altogether. another 40% become muslims in name only giving lip service to the Religion of Peace but essentially ignoring it as much as European "Christians" ignore their own religion. Thus it falls to the remaining 50% or so to wage the imam's war of the cradle. there is no guarantee that they will want to play the imam's reindeer games. The muslims are left with one other option if they cannot get each and every muslim woman top breed 8 kids that is immigration from allahland. However, with birthrates dropping precipitously in the main countries Europe gets its muslims from, Tunisia for instance has a birthrate of 1.99 children per woman below even the developed nations 2.1 and well below the number a developing nation needs just to maintain parity, they are going to find that there will be no reinforcements to back them up in their conquest of Europe.

I remain firm in my contention that in 2050 Europe is not going to have a problem with being swamped by immigrants but that it will have to compete with other countries for the few immigrants available.

[Lexinom]

The Netherlands is the prototype for the future, it seems. It will be interesting to see what reforms they pass now that they seem to be stirring from their utopian slumber.

Fully concur with your analysis on the connection between Europe's predominant secularism and the death of their culture.

[BobL]

"they have black majorities and therefore the blacks are going to "takeover" America."

The last timet that I checked, blacks in this country called themselves Americans (Hispanics too, to a large extent). Try going to Europe and ask the Muslims of France if they consider themselves Frenchmen.

But more than that, in Europe there are no cookie-cutter suburbs for the whites to escape to. The cities simply end, and then you have farmland. But when you have a fertility rate of 1 child per women, it doesn't take long to run out of children.

I guess we'll just have differing viewpoints on this, and we'll pretend that the demographic changes that sunk the Serbs in the former Yugoslavia never happened.

[CzarNicky]

you can continue to believe fantasies. I will continue to watch data.

[BobL]

"I will continue to watch data."

I'm glad you'll watch the data. I'll make you a deal - when I find published data supporting my claim, I'll send it to you. You do the same if you find data on your side. Personally, I hope you're right, the last thing this country needs is bunch of mortal enemies across the Atlantic (we've pretty much got that with China on Pacific) - but I don't think this bunch will fade away as another typical immigrant group (although I do honestly believe that Hispanics in this country will fully assimilate - if the Democrats let them).