Iranian Alert - April 29, 2005 - The final day of the EU3/Iran negotiations: what will happen?

Today, the final day of the EU3/Iran negotiations – what will happen next?

DoctorZin

Later today the EU3 will have to decide what to do with the Iranian proposal to maintain a small uranium enrichment program. What the EU3 decides will show with whom they have cast their lot.

So what will they choose to do? There are four likely scenarios.

One scenario is that Iran decides to give up its uranium enrichment program. They would only agree to this if they believe they can hide their program and thus buy time to produce the bomb in secret. This is very unlikely.

Another scenario is that the EU3 may refuse Iran's request to permit a smaller enrichment program. This would result in Iran leaving the negotiations and resuming its uranium enrichment program. This would lead to the EU3 forwarding the case to the UN Security Council. This would be the best scenario, but also unlikely given recent statements coming out of Europe.

Another scenario is that the EU3 will agree to Iran's proposal and thus lead to a major crisis in U.S. EU3 relations. This also is unlikely.

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is that the EU3 will find a way to postpone the negotiations until after the Iranian Presidential elections, June 17. The EU3 have been promoting the idea that if former Iranian President Rafsanjani wins the election in Iran, he will be someone that they can negotiate with. This is a scenario that Rafsanjani would of course welcome.

This is a nightmare scenario for Iranians seeking real democracy in Iran. They have been hoping to take advantage of this unique opportunity to have the world’s attention on their June 17th Presidential election. They have been preparing to show the world that they consider the regime to be illegitimate, by refusing to participate in an election where the regime chooses the candidates. They have also been hoping for U.S. and international support like that which recently helped the people in the Ukraine and Lebanon replace their governments.

Buta postponement of the negotiations would likely shift the focus of world attention on the June election from it’s legitimacy to whether the "pragmatic" Rafsanjani can become Iran's "legitimate" leader. This is the obvious choice the European press has been promoting and likely mirrors their government's position.

This would keep the EU3 from having to abandon its trade partner and cheap oil supplier. Instead of speaking of Iran's human rights violations, lack of a free press, and lack of real democracy in Iran, they can focus on the need for a Rafsanjani led Iran.
This is the most likely scenario. I hope I am wrong.

If this happens it will be a major setback for the people of Iran and the U.S. The best time to stage major demonstrations in Iran would be either around the election or a few weeks later on the “9th of Tir,” a date when many bloody anti regime demonstrations have occurred in the past. The hot summer months are the ideal time for such demonstrations. The winters in Tehran can be bitterly cold. If the people of Iran don’t receive the support they need this summer and they are once again brutally crushed by the regime, the opportunity to support a popular regime change in Iran may have passed. The U.S. may have little choice but to act militarily.

Let’s hope the EU3 doesn’t try to rescue the regime. We will know which option they chose very soon.

"Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is that the EU3 will find a way to postpone the negotiations until after the Iranian Presidential elections, June 17. The EU3 have been promoting the idea that if former Iranian President Rafsanjani wins the election in Iran, he will be someone that they can negotiate with."

Sadly, I think you may be right, Dr.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1392862/posts

"This is a nightmare scenario for Iranians seeking real democracy in Iran.... They have been preparing to show the world that they consider the regime to be illegitimate, by refusing to participate in an election where the regime chooses the candidates."

I'm afraid the europeans are looking for any way to hang on to the business deals they currently have with the regime......the Iranian people be damned.
And how short-sighted of them (once again) not to realize that helping the Iranian people achieve a democratic gov't and getting rid of the regime would open up Iran to all sorts of new business opportunities that would benefit the europeans and the Iranians.

Iran's top director lauded in London

BBC News
Apr 29th, 05

A major retrospective of Iranian film director Abbas Kiarostami's work has started in London, focusing attention on one of cinema's most unconventional filmmakers.

In addition to showing a series of Kiarostami's films, the month-long celebration will include an exhibition of his photographs, poetry readings, art installations and theatrical productions throughout the city.

It is a wealth of material for a director whose work, though beloved of international critics, is little known by mainstream audiences both in his home country and abroad.

However, Farhad Hakimzadeh, chief executive of the Iranian Heritage Foundation which has helped organise the festival, told the BBC News website it is the perfect time to celebrate a filmmaker whose work has universal appeal.

"He doesn't just address local issues, unlike many Iranian directors," he says.

"If he wants to talk about the way a woman deals with modernity in society he will examine the problems they encounter, regardless of whether they are Iranian or not.

"His films are never just about issues specific to Iran, which is why his work travels so well."

Censorship clashes

Born in Tehran in 1940, Kiarostami obtained a degree in fine arts and worked as a designer before joining a youth organisation called Kanun, establishing its film department and directing his first film, Bread and Alley, in 1970.

After several productions which delighted international critics and infuriated Iranian censors, he won the prestigious Palm D'Or at Cannes for his 1997 film Taste of Cherry, the poignant tale of one man's attempts to press a stranger into helping him to commit suicide.

Unlike many Iranian filmmakers who fled following the 1979 Islamic revolution, Kiarostami has stayed in Iran, often saying he felt he made his best work in his native country.

But this has led to clashes with Iranian film censors. The director's work has not been shown officially in his native country for 10 years.

Despite increasing international acclaim, Mr Kiarostami also found himself an unwitting victim of tightened US immigration laws following the 11 September attacks, after he was denied a visa to attend a screening of his 2002 film Ten at the New York Film Festival.

"I feel this decision is somehow what I deserve," he said sardonically at the time.

Low budget creativity

Without access to big Hollywood budgets, Kiarostami has become a major proponent of digital video, arguing that its relative cheapness and flexibility allows him more creative control as a director.

He also uses mainly non-professional actors in his films, arguing they create "fiction more realistic than reality".

Ten, which follows the story of a female divorcee taxi driver in Tehran and her conversations with various fares, including her son, a prostitute and an elderly woman, is a classic example. Simply and starkly shot, in concentrates on the interaction between driver and passenger.

"I wanted to see if it was possible to make a whole film using just two points of view," he told the BBC shortly after the film's release.

Engaging the audience

Geoff Andrew, programmer for the UK's National Film Theatre and author of a book on the film Ten, argues that the director's low budget, no frills approach allows him to concentrate more on challenging the audience.

"Kiarostami works with ordinary people, with simple ideas about what it means just to be alive or happy," he told the BBC News website.

"He deals with universal and simple questions we all have to cope with, but in a fresh way."

Andrews acknowledges that audiences experiencing Kiarostami's work for the first time may find his work confusing, even frustrating, but he says people observing it at the exhibitions should put aside their expectations.

"He does divide people, because he makes such idiosyncratic and unconventional films," he says.

"But his films are not depressing or bleak or so intellectually challenging they are impenetrable, they deal with simple topics.

"He just encourages the audience to think."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/4489271.stm

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Top News Story

Today, the final day of the EU3/Iran negotiations – what will happen next?

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran: