Iranian Alert - May 9, 2005 - FrontPageMag.com has made a wrong turn on Iran!

Regime Change Iran ^ | 5.9.2005 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Top News Story

FrontPageMag.com: A Third Option for Iran - A Major Mistake!!

By DoctorZin,

I have long been a reader of David Horowitz's FrontPageMag.com. So I was surprised today their editors appear to have taken a wrong turn on Iran. Yesterday, they published a report by David Johnson, co-founder of the US Alliance for Democratic Iran and its Director of Operations.

The article entitled: A Third Option

for Iran suggests that the current thinking in Washington D.C. sees only two options: either appeasement of Iran's Islamic Republic or a military strike. On this I agree, and like David I believe that a third option is not getting the attention it deserves, more about this later.

But I was shocked to read that his "third option" involved support for an organization that the U.S. State Department has designated a "terrorist" organization, the MEK. The article was blatantly slanted towards the MEK, in exclusion of all other options.

Since I have been publishing all the major news on Iran for several years now, I am well aware of the various options in regards to the Iranian threat. I know most of the leaders of the Iranian expatriate community and there is little support for the MEK among them. I believe the MEK may have a place at the table in a future Iran, but a limited one.

I have also been aware of the massive campaign the MEK have been waging to legitimize themselves in the eyes of our government. I also understand the only way they will ever be in power inside of Iran is if the U.S. were to back them in an overthrow of the Iranian government.

It appears that is exactly what the MEK are seeking. David reported on the MEK's recent conference in Washington D.C. (attended by a few hundred Iranian, virtually all MEK supporters) saying:

[Their] plans for Iran remain ambitious. Mrs. Rajavi's [leader of the MEK] position as an interim president is planned to last for only six months after the fall of the current Iranian regime. At the end of her interim term, free and monitored elections would be held throughout Iran.

It appears the leader of the MEK is seeking U.S. help in replacing the Islamic Republic with herself as the new leader, for six months.

So who are the MEK? Here is the DiscoverTheNetwork.org's own report on the MEK:

• Islamist-Marxist terrorist group that seeks to topple the Iranian regime
• Served Moscow as a source of information on Iran during the Cold War
• In the early 1970s, murdered five American military technicians working with the Iranian army
• By the late 1980s, created a 10,000-strong fighting force in Iraq to aid Saddam Hussein ...
  

The MEK was founded in 1965 after a split in a Marxist-Leninist movement that had waged a guerrilla action in northern Iran. Its ideology emerged as a mix of Islam and Marx, with ingredients from the Iranian religious sociologist Ali Shariati, who advocated an "Islam without a clergy." The MEK, with KGB help, engaged in a campaign against the Shah and sent cadres to Cuba, East Germany, South Yemen, and Palestinian camps in Lebanon to train as guerrillas.

Yes, they have money (from places unknown), weapons and organization. Is David actually advocating that we "install" the MEK, even if only temporarily? The Khomeini regime was supposed to be a temporary regime.

It is important to ask ourselves, do we really want to replace the Islamic Republic with a Marxist/Islamic government?

If the U.S. wants to turn the most pro-American Muslim population against us, then we should attempt to install an MEK government in Iran. The Iranian people despise their government, but they also despise the MEK. Scott Peterson, Christian Science Monitor puts is this way.

Western diplomats and analysts agree that the MEK has very little support inside Iran itself. Though many Iranians take issue with their clerical rulers, MEK members are widely seen to be traitors, as they fought alongside Iraqi troops against Iran in the 1980s. ...

Among the Iranian population the MEK are a highly dedicated but small segment of the Iranian population. The Mullahs of Iran would love nothing more than U.S. support for the MEK. They recognize that the Iranian people will lose their trust of the U.S. if we partner with those the pro-American Iranians consider traitors.

So what is our alternative?

There is a real third option and it involves supporting the people of Iran in their own quest for a real democracy in Iran. This is the greatest fear of the regime. The Iranian people have been pleading not for military action but International support for their struggle for real democracy. The regime has seen the winds of change around the world and Middle East. They are worried. This is the reason the Iranian regime is so desperately seeking nuclear weapons technology. They want the International community to back off just as it has with North Korea. A nuclear Iran can suppress its own people with impunity.

For the U.S. Administration to abandon its support for democratic change and instead install an MEK government would not only destroy the trust of the Iranian people, but also the trust of Muslims throughout the Middle East that seek the same fundamental changes in their governments.

This summer, the people of Iran have the greatest opportunity in the 26 year history. The world will be watching in June when they have their so-called elections. The people of Iran will likely boycott what they consider to be an illegitimate election and go into the streets seeking real democracy. I believe the Bush Administration want to support the people of Iran in this way (see my article, Reading the Tea Leaves: Bush's Strategy on Iran).

The MEK will likely play a part in a post Islamic Republic, but they need to find their way in a real democratic government. I hope that FrontPageMag.com will rethink its support of the MEK.

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

• Dan Darling of Winds of Change.net has weighed in on FrontPageMag.com's article this weekend entitled: A Third Option for Iran, which support the MEK. We hope that the editors of FrontPageMag.com will rethink their position.
• The Scotsman is reporting Iran confirmed for the first time today it converted 37 tons of raw uranium into gas... before it suspended all such activities in November under international pressure. ... and added Iran has decided to resume some uranium reprocessing activities perhaps in the next two or three days.
• Al Bawaba reports that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said "The capitalists have forged dominance over the mass media and the press and there is no real democracy in the Western states."
• Iran Mania reports that an Iranian Presidential candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, was forced to cut short a speech when participants started to shout “It’s a lie“ when Karroubi repeated his pledge to pay those that vote in the coming election.
• Khaleej Times Online reports from Tehran's book fair and interviews the Hamas and Hezbollah reps.
• Dow Jones Newswires reports that Iranian hard-liners called for an end to nuclear negotiations with European powers.
• RIA Novosti reports that Iran is distancing itself from the scandal surrounding Russia's ex-nuclear energy minister.
• And finally, The Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal published a report on the current review of the NPT being held in NY City and concludes its current direction is "nuclear nonsense."

[DoctorZIn]

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

[DoctorZIn]

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

[JoeV1]

Re the MEK

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

[DoctorZIn]

But what if the enemy is also the enemy of my friends?

The MEK are despised by my friends inside of Iran who want a true democracy in Iran. Why must I support Marxist-Leninists?

[JoeV1]

But what if the enemy is also the enemy of my friends?

Perhaps we need to deal with our problems one at a time. If the MEK can help defeat the Mullahs, then our attention can be turned to assisting the free people of Iran to dispose of them.

The MEK are despised by my friends inside of Iran who want a true democracy in Iran. Why must I support Marxist-Leninists?

Are they more or less despised then are the Mullah's?

[genefromjersey]

Here's something that might be of interest: Fidel and the Mad Mullahs:

http://www.granma.cu/ingles/2005/enero/lun17/04iran.html

(I suspect,by the way, Cuba has been quite active in bioterror of late.)

They have also inked a contract with China quite recently.

[DoctorZIn]

The people of Iran hate the MEK as much or more than the regime. The MEK are considered to be traitors but most Iranians.

All the Iranian people need is our clear and aggressive support, just as we provided it to the people of the Ukraine to see an end of the Iranian government. But if we support the MEK the people of Iran will feel we either are too ignorant to help them or have betrayed them ourselves.

Why should we turn the pro-American freedom loving Iranians against us when we can support them in creating a real democracy in Iran?

[Realism]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Sure, that works well. Stalin, Saddam, Osama, etc.. Anyone else see a problem with this?

[persiandissident]

Political literature meets Mr. Tickle at Tehran book fair
Publishers from around the world pack annual literary festival

By Agence France Presse (AFP)

Tuesday, May 10, 2005



TEHRAN: Scooby Doo, where are you? If you're at Tehran's book fair and looking for something for the kids, you'll find the stand right next to Islamic Jihad's and around the corner from the stands of Hizbullah and Hamas. Iran's massive annual literary fest has something for everyone: Thomas the Tank Engine, interior decorating, Microsoft Windows programming, "How to Kill an Israeli" and Jean-Paul Sartre.

"We have a stand here every year," explained a young man at the Hamas booth, which featured T-shirts emblazoned with the portrait of their late spiritual leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, replica suicide bomber headbands and posters featuring mugshots of Palestinians who "blew themselves to bits."

The literary message, explained the Hamas rep, was that "they blow themselves up so others can have a better life."

The man at the Islamic Jihad booth was offering a history of Palestine pamphlet and a rather bloody CD-Rom on "Martyrdom-Seeking Operators."

Publishers from the United States are also represented at the packed book fair at Tehran's sprawling international exhibition center, albeit by their Iranian import agents, and drawing large crowds.

There are also other big names: MacMillan, Routledge, Oxford and Cambridge University Press, Penguin and Taschen.


They offer an array of books on architecture, academia and everything else that made it past the censors. Left out would be books deemed politically incorrect, any atlas that features Israel or any book, artistic or otherwise, that shows any female skin that isn't on the hands or face.

The event, which features books at heavily discounted and state subsidized prices, is hugely popular among young Iranians, who rarely have the chance or the finances to peruse what the international literary world has to offer.

Also represented are the cultural sections of most foreign embassies in Tehran, eager to promote books on anything and everything to do with their countries that made it through Iranian customs.

One stand had a real assault rifle on display. That was the Hizbullah booth - more of a multimedia experience - which was quite unique.

"Captured from the Zionists in Southern Lebanon," explained the movement's rep as he showed off the rusty rifle. "We've had a lot of people coming by, and nearly all our books have sold out after just two days." They may have a hard time competing with the more entertaining books in the foreign publisher section - especially with Britain's Mr. Tickle and the other much-loved Mr. Men stories. - AFP

[persiandissident]

NICOSIA [MENL] -- The Iranian opposition asserted that the Teheran regime has used Hizbullah to quell Arab unrest near the Iraqi border.

The Ahwaz Human Rights Organization reported that Iranian authorities brought scores of Hizbullah operatives to southeastern Iran to quell Arab riots that began on April 15. The organization said Arabic-speaking Hizbullah fighters attacked protesters in the Khuzestan province in late April.

"The Lebanese Hizbullah -- which is trained in Khuzestan -- appears to have been conscripted into the crackdown," the British-based group said in a statement. "Among those attacking demonstrators were Arabic speakers with distinctly Lebanese accents, according to reports on the ground."

This was the first time that the Iranian opposition reported the use of Hizbullah in quelling unrest in Khuzestan. Hizbullah was said to have been used to combat student demonstrators in 1999 and 2002.

---

[nuconvert]

From Dan Darling's reply to Frontpage Mag. article :

"But you ask anybody with any knowledge of the MEK from AEI, Heritage, Brookings, Carnegie, Hudson, RAND, Jamestown, ad infinitum whether or not the MEK should be the official US-backed Iranian opposition group, they will you down the line "No!" with more unanimity than you'll get on just about any other issue I can think of off-hand."

Thank you, Dan, for making that clear.

[F14 Pilot]

MEK is a marxist-Islamic terror group that has no support among any body in Iranian society.

I wonder if any one in Bush admin would listen to BS these people spread about MEK.

[F14 Pilot]

I think it is time to put an end to support for dictators in the mideast and else where.

We do not need some more again...

[Khashayar]

I am an Iranian and when it comes to people like MEK, I'd rather stay with mad Mullahs than lunatic MEK terrorists.

[Khashayar]

Pictures showing Poly-Technic University of Tehran students and professors sit-in to demand the release of Political prisoners

[AdmSmith]

WILL THE CONSERVATIVES DOMINATE IRANIAN POLITICS?

The men and women who wish to compete in the Iranian presidential election will begin registering on 10 May. After five days, the 12 members of the Guardians Council will begin to examine the applicants' qualifications. This is part of the Guardians Council's constitutional responsibility to supervise elections. This has always been a controversial process. Of the more than 200 people who registered in 1997, only four candidates were accepted. And out of the more than 800 people who registered in 2001, only 10 were accepted. Among the people rejected for elected office are veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, participants in the revolutionary struggle against the monarchy, and sitting parliamentarians. Human beings inevitably make mistakes, and it would seem that the vetting process for candidates is no different. However, the head of the Guardians Council, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, seems oblivious to this possibility. At the time of the 1998 Assembly of Experts election, Jannati said the council must only answer to the authority that appointed it -- the supreme leader -- if it made any mistakes in rejecting over half of the 396 prospective candidates. A few months later, Jannati described the people as orphans and the religious scholars as their custodians and guardians. "They are in charge of all the affairs of the people," he said.

Expecting perfection from humans is unreasonable. Expecting fairness and an absence of bias from state officials, on the other hand, is perfectly reasonable. It is therefore not clear why Jannati is involved with the team from the conservative Coordination Council for Islamic Revolution Forces that is selecting a final candidate for president, as reported in "Etemad," "Eqbal," and "Farhang-i Ashti" on 5 May.

Termed an "expediency committee" (shora-yi maslahatanji), its other members are Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani, Ali Meshkini, and Mujtaba Tehrani. Guardians Council spokesman Gholam-Hussein Elham denied Jannati's involvement with the conservative group, whereas Guardians Council member Mohammad Jahromi said the regulations do not prohibit Jannati's membership ("Kayhan" and "Eqbal," 5 May 2005).

Interior Minister Abdolvahed Musavi-Lari expressed concern that involvement of the person responsible for supervising the election in a specific political movement is neither in the individual's interest nor in society's ("Etemad," 5 May 2005). The interior minister also raised questions about Jannati's impartiality. Jannati's alleged involvement in the Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces only contributes to doubts about the Guardians Council's political inclinations. But it also shows that the conservatives are not as monolithic as some believe. The Coordination Council identified Ali Larijani as its presidential candidate in late April, but other conservative candidates have their own constituencies. There are reports that the conservative speaker of parliament, Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, has sent a letter to other conservative candidates -- Ahmad Tavakoli, Ali Akbar Velayati, Mohsen Rezai, and Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad -- asking them to withdraw from the race ("Farhang-i Ashti" and "Etemad," 5 May 2005). Only Tavakoli has done so. Larijani reportedly said that he would withdraw if it is necessary for maintaining unity ("Jomhuri-yi Islami," 5 May 2005). Velayati has refused to withdraw ("Sharq," 5 May 2005). Another conservative candidate, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, reportedly did not get the letter because he is doing well in opinion polls.

The presence of many candidates encourages public participation in the election, and the Iranian regime uses voter turnout figures to legitimize itself. Therefore, one would not expect conservative political organizations to discourage candidates.

In this case, however, the presence of many candidates would dilute the vote and reduce the percentage earned by the top vote-getters. This would normally not be much of a problem, but if Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani enters the race, there is a distinct possibility that he will be among the top two finishers although none of them will get the required fifty percent-plus of the votes. In that case, there is the possibility that Hashemi-Rafsanjani would win the second round. Hashemi-Rafsanjani has a reputation for doing what is politically expedient and pragmatic, and this has annoyed some conservatives. Indeed, several seminary lecturers from Qom allegedly issued a statement in which they criticized Hashemi-Rafsanjani and said the next president does not have to be a cleric ("Siyasat-i Ruz," 5 May 2005). The conservatives see him as too willing to give way on issues they see as important, such as social affairs and international relations. The conservatives therefore oppose Hashemi-Rafsanjani, as well as the pro-reform candidates, and although they already have a stranglehold on power in Iran -- through the Supreme Leadership, the Guardians Council, and the parliament - the conservatives want to make their domination complete by winning the presidency. (Bill Samii)

source: RFE/RL Iran Report Vol. 8, No. 19, 9 May 2005

[AdmSmith]

PROSPECTIVE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES BEGIN TO REGISTER.

Registration of prospective candidates for Iran's next presidential election is scheduled to begin on 10 May and continue for five days. The Interior Ministry will forward this information to the Guardians Council, which will screen the applications until 24 May. Individuals whose candidacies are accepted can campaign from 27 May until 24 hours before election day on 17 June. Iran's next president will play a key role in shaping that country's domestic political climate as well as its relationship with the rest of the world. Will incumbent Hojatoleslam Mohammad Khatami's successor be a conservative isolationist? A conservative who favors some liberalization of foreign policy and loosening the social reins? Or will the next president be a reformer eager to ease social restrictions and accelerate Iranian involvement with the rest of the world? An applicant's biggest initial hurdle is the Guardians Council. It accepted just four of the more than 200 applicants in 1997, and in 2001 it accepted 10 of 814 registrants. According to Article 115 of the Iranian Constitution, a presidential candidate must be of Iranian origin and have Iranian nationality, must be a resourceful administrator, must have a good record, must be trustworthy and pious, and must believe in the Islamic Republic's system and its fundamental principles. A more controversial aspect of the article on presidential qualifications is its assertion that the president must be a religious-political individual (rejal-i mazhabi-siasi). This vague clause leads to questions of whether or not the president should be a clergyman and also leaves it unclear as to whether or not a woman may serve as president.

The most controversial candidate is arguably Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani (no known website), who has yet to confirm his intention to run. The 70-year-old Hashemi-Rafsanjani was born to a pistachio-farming family in the village of Bahraman, and while studying in Qom he developed a close relationship with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Hashemi-Rafsanjani has served in most of the Islamic republic's top jobs, including parliamentary speaker followed by president (1989-97). He currently chairs the Expediency Council, which has powerful oversight authority over legislation, and is deputy head of the Assembly of Experts. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly opposes a new Hashemi-Rafsanjani bid for the presidency.

Hashemi-Rafsanjani hinted in a recent interview with "USA Today" that he could restore Iran-U.S. relations, but in interviews with Iranian media he has been highly critical of the United States ("RFE/RL Iran Report," 14 February 2005). In the 1980s, he advocated Iran's use of weapons of mass destruction, although he has since modified his comments on the issue and now says Iran has a right to use nuclear energy peacefully. He defends Iran's support for the Lebanese Hizballah and similar organizations, is hostile to Israel, and backs "martyrdom operations" (suicide bombings) against the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. According to a recent report that quotes an anonymous source close to Hashemi-Rafsanjani, he has a plan for restoring relations with the United States ("Al-Sharq Al-Awsat," 3 May). He also is said to have plans to support the Arab-Israeli peace plan proposed by Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdallah bin Abd al-Aziz. Hashemi-Rafsanjani reportedly intends to pursue President Khatami's reforms, which encountered opposition from entrenched conservative elements, and he reportedly wants to eliminate the system of Vilayat-i Faqih (Rule of the Supreme Jurisprudent).

Furthermore, according to the "Al-Sharq Al-Awsat" report, Hashemi-Rafsanjani purportedly wants to cooperate with the heretofore-shunned nationalist-religious forces in an effort to counter "an internal coup by some [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps] generals, radical commanders in the intelligence apparatus, and the religious seminary in Qom." Hashemi-Rafsanjani allegedly was prompted to act when he learned of a plan to destroy the centrist Executives of Construction Party -- which has voiced support for his presidential bid -- as well as reformist leaders, and his extended family.

The Reformers

Two prospective candidates enjoy the support of the reformist mainstream: Hojatoleslam Mehdi Mahdavi-Karrubi and Mustafa Moin. Karrubi (http://www.karroubi.ir) was born in 1937 in Aligudarz, Luristan Province. He is currently a member of the Expediency Council and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Karrubi served as parliamentary speaker from 1990-92 and again from 2000-04. He has also headed the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee and the Martyr's Foundation. Karrubi is a founding member of the Militant Clerics Association and currently serves as its secretary-general. Discussing the possibility of relations with the United States, he said: "We can enjoy relations with all countries of the world, apart from Israel, of course" ("Aftab-i Yazd," 21 April 2005). He continued: "With regards to America, I must say that the American statesmen should stop their current ways of interaction and approach vis-a-vis Iran. If this happens, then I will not be opposed to relations with America." Moin (http://www.moeen.ir) was born in 1951 in Najafabad, Isfahan Province, and holds a doctorate in medicine. He served as chancellor of Shiraz University from 1981-82 and has served on the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council since 1983. Moin has served a number of terms in the parliament (1982-84, 1988-89, and 1997-2001).

He was the culture and higher education minister from 1989-93 and served as higher education minister from 1997-2003. His candidacy is backed by the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mujahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization. Asked about his stance on relations with Washington, Moin said he advocates dialogue with the world and the United States is a member of that community ("Sharq," 10 March 2005). "We consider our national interests as the main basis, and we can have interactions with America as equals, and without any imposed preconditions, and while safeguarding our national rights and power," Moin said. He added that the United States must apologize to Iran and then offer compensation for "the moral, spiritual, and material damage they have inflicted on us."

Other prospective reformist candidates are Ebrahim Asqarzadeh, Mustafa Kavakebian, and Mohsen Mehralizadeh. Asqarzadeh was one of the students who stormed the U.S. Embassy in 1979.

Currently the head of the Solidarity Party, Asqarzadeh (no known website) announced on 22 April that he intends to be a candidate and expressed concern about public apathy and silence, as well as the appearance of "widespread militaristic ideas," the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported. "I wouldn't have entered a situation that I clearly know its outcome, were I not alarmed by the participation of military men and those in jackboots [in the presidential race]," Asqarzadeh said. "My motive for speaking to you and announcing my candidacy does not stem from my desire for power, but it is due to my concern for the current dangerous situation." Asqarzadeh said boycotting elections is pointless. Asqarzadeh's recent efforts to secure elected office have been largely unsuccessful. The Guardians Council rejected him as a candidate for the 1998 Assembly of Experts election, the 2001 presidential election, and the 2004 parliamentary elections. He was elected to the Tehran municipal council in 1999, but the Guardians Council does not vet candidates in council elections. Democracy Party Secretary-General Kavakebian (no known website) has suggested that nepotism is rife in the country's leadership and that senior posts should be opened to outsiders such as himself. "I, as a little man among the nation's children, intend to propound the new discourse, meaning that the elite have been kept outside the bounds of power for 26 years and feel compassion for the system [and] should find their place within the ranks of those in power," Kavakebian said recently ("Mardom Salari," 12 March 2005). Kavakebian said the country's senior leaders come from a group of just 2,700 people, and he noted that some officials have seven or eight different positions. Kavakebian said the government is inefficient because many of those in positions of power get there through "nepotism, cliques, and windfall-seeking." He said Iran has not fully realized "all aspects of religious government and Islamic values."

Mehralizadeh (http://www.mehralizadeh.ir) was born in Maragheh, East Azerbaijan Province, in 1956, and he holds a doctorate in economics. He was a founder of the Construction Jihad and in 1979-81 served as a regional commander in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Mehralizadeh served within the Ministry of Heavy Industries from 1985-90, was managing director of the Kish Island Development Organization from 1990-92, deputy for power plants at the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran from 1993-95, and served as managing director of the Shahed Investment Company from 1995-97. Mehralizadeh was governor-general of Khorasan Province from 1997-2001, and he has served as vice president and head of the national Physical Education Organization since 2001. Mehralizadeh's spokesman said on 26 April that the former has decided to be a candidate and will begin campaigning soon (Islamic Republic News Agency, IRNA, 26 April 2005). He had said months earlier that he would withdraw from the race only if the reformists settle on a joint candidate ("Farhang-i Ashti," 10 January 2005).

The Conservatives

There are several prospective conservative candidates, a development that reflects age-based and ideological divisions among this group. The Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces named Ali Larijani (http://www.larijani.ir) as its candidate in April, and parliamentarian Mohammad Reza Bahonar said the coordination council hopes to discourage Hashemi-Rafsanjani from seeking the presidency ("Sharq," 28 April 2005). Larijani headed Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting from 1994-2004, and he also has served as minister of Islamic culture and guidance, and as an official in the Islamic Revolution Guards Ministry. He currently serves as the supreme leader's representative to the Supreme National Security Council. His father was a prominent apolitical cleric, and his brothers are politically active. Larijani said on 31 March that he believes the United States wants to reopen its embassy in Tehran and that Iran should be careful, Fars News Agency reported. "America's threats are serious, though its war-mongering language is not real," he said in an earlier speech (Iranian Students News Agency, ISNA, 26 March 2005). "They want to weaken the Iranian government and wish to influence the will of the nation and our officials, so that we ourselves would satisfy their needs." In a 9 March speech in Kashan, Larijani argued that "making any concession on nuclear technology is tantamount to the biggest treason," Fars News Agency reported. He previously dismissed an Iran-EU agreement on the suspension of uranium enrichment as amounting to the exchange of a "pearl" for a "bonbon." Many of the more traditional conservatives back Ali Akbar Velayati (http://www.velayati.ir), who was born in Tehran in 1945.

Velayati is a physician who was foreign minister from 1981-97 and currently serves as an adviser to the supreme leader. He is also a member of the Expediency Council. Velayati has pledged to withdraw from the race if Hashemi-Rafsanjani enters the field. In 1997, a German court found Velayati, Supreme Leader Khamenei, Hashemi-Rafsanjani, and Intelligence and Security Minister Ali-Akbar Fallahian guilty for their roles in the 1992 assassinations of Iranian dissidents in Germany. Referring to that case -- as well as to the 1991 assassination in Paris of former Prime Minister Shahpour Bakhtiar -- in a 2005 interview, Velayati blamed unnamed parties who were trying to damage Iranian-European relations ("Etemad," 1 May 2005). With respect to current Tehran-London relations, he said, "Britain's role in the European Union is mainly as America's agent." Younger conservatives are divided among their preferred potential candidates: Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and Mohsen Rezai. Ahmadi-Nejad (http://www.mardomyar.com) became mayor of Tehran in April 2003. Ahmadi-Nejad is widely regarded as "unassuming and simple," as well as straight talking -- perceptions that have made him popular ("Sharq," 8 June 2004). Ahmadi-Nejad's political activism commenced shortly after Iran's 1979 revolution, with the Office for Strengthening Unity. He served as governor-general of Ardabil Province during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. Ahmadi-Nejad is now a member of the conservative Association of Engineers and a member of the central council of the Society of the Devotees of the Islamic Revolution. He said on 28 April that he will his announce his decision on his candidacy on registration day, IRNA reported.

The 43-year-old Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (http://www.ghalibaf.ir) headed the IRGC air force until June 2000, when he was selected to be chief of the national police force. Qalibaf is one of the 24 IRGC commanders who in July 1999 sent a letter to President Khatami, warning that if he did not act to quell student unrest, they would not stand by idly and would take matters into their own hands. Under his command, the previously unpopular police force improved its reputation by implementing the 110 rapid-reaction system, which made the force operate more efficiently; he has also made progress in eliminating the influence of political factions in the police. Qalibaf resigned from the police leadership in April.

In a 12 March speech, Qalibaf identified three areas on which he would focus: the economy, foreign affairs, and "social capital." Referring to the economy, he said, "The people's buying power has not seen suitable growth; we have even seen stagnation in certain areas." Turning to foreign affairs, he said, "Given Iran's outstanding geopolitical weight and the role which the country can play at the regional and global level, we have not properly tapped these capacities." And regarding the issue of "social capital," Qalibaf said, "In the area of protecting our social capital, we face challenges which make us lose our productive role in the fields of science, politics, economy, and wealth as well as our social identity."

Born in 1954 in Masjid-i Suleiman, Mohsen Rezai (http://www.farzandemellat.com) headed the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps from 1981-97, and he now serves as secretary of the Expediency Council. He has promoted himself as an independent conservative candidate. "I consider myself a new rightist and even more rightist than many colleagues," he said (IRNA, 26 March 2005). He has dismissed concern about his military background, suggesting that his critics are prejudiced or ignorant (ISNA, 13 April 2005). "My political ideas are rooted in my deep belief in democracy, and I left the military when I decided to take part in political activities," he said.

During the campaign, Rezai has been subdued on foreign policy issues, but he has expressed concern about U.S. regional ambitions since 11 September 2001. He also supports Iranian diplomatic efforts on the nuclear issue, but has expressed concern that Iran is conceding too much to Europe. Rezai said Iranian diplomacy during President Khatami's second term (which started in 2001) has been marked by submissive diplomacy, missed opportunities, and unilateral concessions in exchange for minimal financial returns ("Entekhab," 27 April 2003). However, Rezai has represented Iran in track-two diplomatic meetings in Cyprus. Seyyed Reza Zavarei (no known website) announced on 12 December that he would stand as an independent in the 2005 race, ISNA reported. A conservative, the 67-year-old Zavarei ran for president in 1997. He has served as a lawyer on the Guardians Council, served in the Interior Ministry, been elected to two terms in the legislature, and headed the deeds registration organization. Zavarei gave as reasons for his decision to run "God's will," the "country's conditions," and the need to resolve society's problems. If elected, according to Zavarei, his cabinet will not be chosen on factional grounds. Honesty and competence will be the determining factors, he vowed. Zavarei said Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini did not rule out relations with the United States and that Iran is not hostile to the American people but added, "We cannot have relations with America because their leaders have made the world hate America" ("Mardom Salari," 25 January 2005). He continued, "The problem is that they want to rule the world. Under such conditions we will not be blackmailed." Two women have expressed interest in bids for the presidency.

Zanjan parliamentary representative Rafat Bayat (no known website) declared in March that she wants to be an independent presidential candidate. Bayat also expressed confidence that the Guardians Council will approve a female candidate once a woman with the necessary managerial and executive qualities comes forward. Bayat decried the impact of factionalism on the political process and said student groups and independent figures urged her to run. Islamic Revolution's Women Society Secretary-General Azam Taleqani (no known website) announced on 30 April that she is considering entering the presidential race, IRNA reported. Her previous attempt to run for president was cut short when the Guardians Council rejected her candidacy.

Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani (no known website), a former vice president and five-term legislator who was born in Semnan in 1948, is secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and also serves on the Expediency Council. His position on the security council has given him a prominent role in Iran's nuclear negotiations with other countries. A conservative figure and member of the Tehran Militant Clergy Association, he is identified with Hashemi-Rafsanjani and does not appear to have an independent political base. Some observers see Rohani, who has been labeled a pragmatic conservative, as the choice of the moderate right. He has indicated little interest in running for the presidency, however. Honar-i Haftom movie studio manager Karim Atashi (no known website) said on 3 April that he intends to run in the presidential election, Mehr News Agency reported on 4 April. It is not clear who, if anyone, backs Atashi as a candidate. The Guardians Council's strategy on approving candidates remains a mystery. In some cases, it has chosen to limit public choice: In February 2004, it disqualified some 44 percent of prospective parliamentary candidates; in the 2001 presidential election, however, it allowed many candidates in an effort to encourage voter participation. (This also served to dilute the reformist vote and reduce the eventual victor's mandate.) The possibility exists that if Hashemi-Rafsanjani does enter the race no candidate will secure the required majority of the vote in the first round. This would require a runoff election between the top two vote-getters. (Bill Samii)
source: RFE/RL Iran Report Vol. 8, No. 19, 9 May 2005

[DoctorZIn]

To read today’s thread click here.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”