Posted on 05/28/2005 5:00:39 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
Top News Story
Why Europe Is Wrong on Iran
Amir Taheri
During his visit to Washington last week, Britain’s Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told his American interlocutors that the European Union’s initiative on Iran, of which his government is a part, was heading for an impasse. But when asked what the next move should be, all that Straw had to say was: Keep talking until after the Iranian presidential election.
The Europeans said a similar thing last year when talks on Iran’s alleged nuclear ambitions had hit another brick-wall. At that time the advice was to keep talking until after the Iranian parliamentary election. Well, that election took place without producing any evolution in the Iranian position except that the Islamic Republic may now be a year closer to the “surge capacity” it needs to become a nuclear power.
The latest round of talks, slated to continue until after the Iranian presidential election, is equally likely to produce no change in Tehran’s position. Tehran will continue to use the talks as a diplomatic smokescreen while driving a wedge between Europe and the United States.
Nevertheless, it would be wrong to blame Iran for this state of affairs. The leadership in Tehran is acting in accordance with its own agenda that is aimed at securing the technological and industrial base that would enable Iran to develop a nuclear arsenal if and when it so decides. The creation of that “surge capacity” is a key element in the Islamic Defense Doctrine as approved by Khamenehi in the mid-1990s.
The Europeans are victims of their own delusions. Their policy on Iran is based on a logical contradiction and a number of illusions.
The contradiction is this: They assume that Iran has been lying about its nuclear program for two decades, and invite the Iranians to stop lying. But to do that, they would first have to admit that they had been lying. The Europeans are asking Iran to stop doing what Iran insists it is not doing at all. Thus to satisfy the Europeans Iran must first do what it says it is not doing and then stop doing it in a verifiable way. Remember the conundrum about the liar who says that, all his life, he had told nothing but lies?
What about the European illusions?
One such is Straw’s belief that the results of the Iranian presidential election will have an impact on Tehran’s position. “We have to wait and see who wins,” he told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
What Straw ignores is that we already know who the winner is. He is a mid-ranking mulla named Ali Hussein-Khamenehi whose position as “The Supreme Guide” in the system created by the late Ayatollah Khomeini, gives him unlimited constitutional powers. Whoever wins the Iranian presidency next month will be little more than a member of Khamenehi’s vast entourage. Like all his predecessors, the future president will be part of a façade that hides the true decision-making mechanisms of the system. Any suggestion that a president of the Islamic Republic could overrule “The Supreme Guide” is too absurd to merit refutation.
The second illusion stems from the first. For over a year, Straw and his German and French colleagues have been talking to a certain Hassan Rouhani, a junior mulla with the title of secretary of The High Council of Islamic National Defense. By all accounts Rouhani is a bonviveur with a sense of humor. His friends say that, in his lighter moments, he makes a good imitation of the German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer.
But anyone with the slightest knowledge of how things work in Tehran would know that Rouhani has no decision-making powers even on procedural matters.
The Europeans have never been able to see any of the real decision-makers (known as tasmimgiran) in Tehran let alone engage them in negotiation. Rouhani and other facade officials who talk to the Europeans may honestly believe that Iran is not up to mischief if only because they do not know what is going on. Only those in the camarilla around “The Supreme Guide” have the full picture. The doors of that camarilla, however, remain shut to the Europeans.
The Europeans also ignore the messianic nature of the ideology that sustains the Islamic Republic. That ideology sees itself in a global competition with Western liberalism of which the European Union is one manifestation. Khomeinism’s ambition is to win that competition one day, and remold the global system on the basis of its vision. That ambition may seem laughable to outsiders who know that the Islamic Republic counts for little in the global balance of power. Some in the Tehran establishment also regard such ambitions as absurd. The truth, however, is that the system cannot act against its own nature.
The problem that the Europeans, among others, have with the Islamic Republic is not one of behavior, as Straw and his colleagues assume. The problem is with the nature of the Iranian regime.
Put in terms of practical power politics the problem is simple: The present global system is almost exclusively a Western creation. Francis Fukuyama’s theory of “the end of history” is true in the sense that there no longer is a major ideological challenge to the Western world, which is now opposed only by a few oddballs such as North Korea, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, and Cuba. The Khomeinist regime sees itself as the successor of the late Soviet Union as the principal challenger of the West’s global domination.
Talleyrand once said that there are powers that will not stop because they do not know how; they stop only when they are stopped. The experience of the past three decades shows that this is true of the Islamic Republic.
Hamid-Reza Asefi, the Foreign Ministry spokesman in Tehran, has already dismissed the package of concessions that the Europeans and, to a lesser extent, the Bush administration, have offered Iran, as “a joke.” He is not being frivolous. Almost half a century of Cold War with the USSR teaches at least one lesson: Your adversary will stop doing whatever it is that you don’t like only if you stop him. If you cannot, he won’t stop. Why should he?
If Iran has decided to get the bomb, it is not going to stop because Straw talks to a junior mulla. Nor would the promise of investment and trade persuade them to change course. As for the threat of “referring” them to the United Nations, then above-mentioned Asefi has already described it as “laughable”.
The European initiative is not only useless but could also be dangerous. By fostering Tehran’s illusion that the Islamic Republic could take the major powers for a ride, the European initiative strengthens the hands of those in the camarilla who believe, or pretend to believe, that their war of attrition against a “corrupt, cowardly and moribund West” is winnable. There are many ways of dealing with the Khomeinist challenge. The European imitative, now heading for another failure, is the worst.
- The NY Times reports that Nicholas Burns, under secretary of state for political affairs, also have a "second track" paralleling diplomatic initiatives on Iran's support for terrorism and its nuclear program. He said the administration was "taking a page from the playbook" on Ukraine and Georgia."
- Times of India reports that Iran's hard-line Guardian Council has approved a bill forcing Iran to develop nuclear technology, including uranium enrichment.
- BBC News reports that Iranian TV as saying, "Foreign broadcasters, including Persian-language radio stations based abroad, were attempting to affect the outcome of the election."
- Reuters reports that Iran as saying "The United States and Israel represent the real nuclear threat to the world, not Iran."
- WorldNetDaily.com reports that the 200-mile "Iran Freedom Walk," organized by the Iran Freedom Foundation, concludes today.
- Reuters reports that Iran's former higher education minister, Moin, agreed to run for president, after having been banned.
- The Associated Press reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said it would be an "enormously dangerous" situation if Iran were to become a nuclear weapons state. "We're going to do everything we can to prevent that outcome."
- Iran Shahr Blog reports that Reza Pahlavi is calling on the people of Iran to boycott of the June 17 'elections.'
- Agence France Presse reports that the United Arab Emirates has told Tehran to free five crew members of a boat which Iran has held in the Gulf since early May.
- Iran Focus provides a MEK report on Mohammad-Reza Iravani, the deputy chief of VEVAK.
- Reuters reports that Iran says U.N. resolution demanding that militias in Lebanon disarm does not apply to the Hizbollah.
- Khaleej Times reports that Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf insists that Iran should not acquire a nuclear bomb.
- Iran Focus reports that nearly a thousand homeless people rounded off the streets of Tehran in the past five months had university degrees.
- Outlook India reports that Islamabad has agreed to guarantee security for the Indo-Iran gas pipeline.
- The Iranian Prospect reports the famous Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji is still on his hunger strike and getting worse. Reports Without Borders weighs in.
- WorldNetDaily.com reports that intelligence information asserts North Korea this year transferred components to Iran to assemble a plutonium-based nuclear warhead.
- Iranian.com says, "It’s Bush’s fault that Democracy spreads."
- Adnkronos International reports that a representative of Iran's Supreme Leader said,"Vote for Rafsanjani and we will have nuclear bombs."
- The Financial Times reports that Masih Alinejad who angered Iranian MP's for her story on financial corruption has now published a political novel.
- The Committee to Protect Bloggers suggests the first steps in anonymizing your blog.
- And finally, SMCCDI reports that a group of Iranian secularist activists have protested against the illegal holding of Islamic regime's ballot boxes on the US soil.
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Check out the other news items. There are many interesting reports today!!!
Nice post. Illuminating.
Nuke talks between Iran-EU is what the Mullahs want.
They do want to waste our time and achieve their objectives!
But of course. Only the Euroweenies can't seem to get it.
Iranian Nuke Facilities
I disagree.
Syria is a problem, but they are NOT the center of terror.
They are weak and just left Lebanon to the Iranians and Hezbollah.
Syria is so weak that Janes Defense Weekly expects a coop soon. The Iranians want to see a change there and are in a position to cause trouble there also.
Delusional.
There appear to be only two viable solutions; a military one or a violent internal one in the form of regime overthrow. Hopefully, for all concerned, it will be the latter - and soon.
Condi Rice herself said that Iran is the #1 terrorist nation in the world. Which is exactly correct. Syria is Iran's pawn, and Lebanon is Syria's pawn. Then you have Hezballah and Hamas, etc., that are paid by Iran. In an idealistic scenario, you eliminate Iran, then you also neutralize Syria and Lebanon. Which could help lead to peace in Israel. But you have the Saudis and their Wahabbi Islam and its strong connections to al-Qaeda.
Point is, you get rid of Iran, then you will have acheived an enormous victory. Though you still will have problems, no doubt about it.
Iranian Mullahs give OIL to Syrians for free to have them in their back wherever they go!
Syria is depended on Iran!
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Great information...thanks!
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