An unidentified resident in the town of
Batabano reinforces the roof of his house...
Posted on 06/10/2005 3:22:23 AM PDT by bd476
An unidentified resident in the town of
Batabano reinforces the roof of his house...
MIAMI - A tropical storm watch was issued Friday for central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, where residents are still recovering from last year's hurricanes. Arlene, the Atlantic hurricane season's first named tropical storm, was centered about 10 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba at 5 a.m. EDT. It was moving north about 8 mph, and could cross near or over western Cuba as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico early Friday, forecasters said.
Wind and rain extended 140 miles to the north and east from the storm's center.
Arlene had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm could drop as much as 5 to 10 inches of rain, and possibly cause flooding in western Cuba and tornados in southwest Florida and the Florida Keys, meteorologists said.
"This is going to be a major rainfall event before and ahead of the storm," said Trisha Wallace, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The Cuban government issued a tropical storm warning for the western province of Pinar Del Rio to the capital of Havana. A tropical storm warning was also in effect for the Dry Tortugas, a cluster of islands about 70 miles west of Key West that comprise a U.S. national park. Other than park personnel, there are no permanent residents.
The storm was not expected to develop into a hurricane before making landfall, Wallace said.
Hurricane season began June 1 and ends Nov. 30. Last season, Florida was struck by hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne; between them, the four storms damaged one out of every five homes in the state. The storms caused about 130 deaths in the United States and are blamed for $22 billion in insured damage.
...ARLENE TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO THE CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THESE WARNINGS MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT.
SOME COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N... 84.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/100840.shtml
The Accu-Weather forecast for Saturday, June 11, 2005, shows Tropical Storm Arlene will bring rain, thunderstorms and windy conditions to Florida and other portions of the Gulf Coast. At the same time, another storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the northern Plains and portions of the Midwest. A cold front will bring some showers to the northern Rocky Mountains. (AP Photo/Accu-Weather) Yahoo AP News Accu-Weather
Ping.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 100849
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
Arlene has a ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning...
with most of the associated convection in a poorly-defined band
northeast of the exposed low-level center.
An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found a broad and poorly-defined wind
center...A 1000 MB central pressure...and flight-level winds of 56 KT at 850 MB near the Isle of Youth.
How much of this wind is reaching the surface is questionable...as the convection in the area is somewhat isolated and the Isle of Youth reported 20 KT winds at 06Z.
However...these flight-level are strong enough to
justify increasing the initial intensity to
40 KT.
Arlene has turned to the left over the past 6 hr and the initial motion is now 340/7.
Water vapor imagery shows a large
mid/upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico...with a building ridge over the Western Atlantic and the Eastern United States.
This combination should steer Arlene generally North-Northwestward until it reaches the Northern Gulf Coast in 36-48 hr.
Dynamical models generally agree with this scenario...with some spread in both the track and speed.
The official forecast is down the middle of the
guidance envelope...calling for acceleration toward the
North-Northwest during the next 24 hr followed by some slowing as Arlene approaches the coast.
The new track is in best agreement with the UKMET and is shifted a little to the left of the previous forecast.
The intensity forecast remains problematic. On the strengthening side...large-scale models suggest the vertical shear should decrease somewhat during the next 24 hr as Arlene moves over the fairly warm waters of the loop current.
On the other hand...the broad wind structure and large amounts of dry air seen in water vapor imagery near Arlene both argue against strengthening.
The ships model calls for the storm to reach 45-50 KT intensity before landfall... while the GFDL calls for a 64 KT intensity at landfall.
The intensity forecast will compromise between the two models...calling for Arlene to reach 55 KT before landfall.
The forecast track and wind radii require a Tropical Storm Watch for the Northern Gulf Coast at this time.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 21.6N 84.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 26.2N 87.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 28.5N 88.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 31.0N 88.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 37.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/0600Z 42.0N 82.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
I might have to put down the umbrella in my Bermuda Rum swizzler...
__________________________________________________________
GMZ031>033-052>054-072>074-101200-
/O.NEW.KEYW.MA.W.0093.050610T1007Z-050610T1200Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
607 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY FL OUT 20 NM
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM
FLORIDA BAY
* UNTIL 800 AM EDT
* AT 604 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH OVER KEYS
ATLANTIC WATERS...FLORIDA BAY...AND GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS AS WELL AS OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY.
MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...AND
INCREASING WAVES. BOATERS...SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...
UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS SUBSIDE.
LAT...LON 2455 7961 2393 8050 2361 8173 2502 8185
2498 8226 2544 8256 2558 8201 2543 8159
2504 8149 2511 8090 2525 8020
Looks like it's going to be a rough weekend to be in Mobile.
}:-)4
Arlene has made the NNW turn...surf's up ping!
...Arlene emerging into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to the city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the Isle of Youth. These warnings may be discontinued later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Dry Tortugas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northern Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana to Indian Pass Florida. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area during the next 36 hr.
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm Arlene was located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 84.8 west...about 50 miles...80 km...north of the western tip of Cuba.
Arlene is now moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph ...16 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...Arlene will be moving away from western Cuba this morning...and will be moving across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and tonight.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 55 mph... 90 km/hr...with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area to the northeast of the center. Some additional strengthening is still possible during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles ...220 km to the northeast of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible during the next 24 hours across much of western and central Cuba...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches in the higher terrain of Cuba. General 3 to 5 inch amounts will be possible across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys over the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall associated with Arlene will likely begin to spread across the central and eastern Gulf Coast region later tonight.
Some coastal flooding is possible on the southern coast of western Cuba.
Isolated tornadoes may occur over portions of southwest Florida and the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...22.6 N... 84.8 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 55 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb/Avila
bump
Bermuda Rum Swizzle
2 ounces dark rum
1 ounce lime juice
1 ounce Pinapple Juice
1 ounce orange juice
1/4 ounce falernum
Shake with ice. Strain into a highball glass filled with ice. Garnish with a slice of orange and a cherry.
Note: If you don't have falernum, you "can" substitute grenadine, although it isn't quite the same thing.
Sounds good!
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
753 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
ALL GULF COAST RESIDENTS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEW ORLEANS
* UNTIL 900 PM EDT SATURDAY, JUNE 11 2005
* AT 604 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IMAGING INDICATED
THE PRESENCE OF A WEATHER CHANNEL SUV BELIEVED TO BE DRIVEN BY WEATHERMAN/TOUGH GUY JIM CANTORE...MOVING WEST AT 90 MPH ON I-10 JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE JIM IS HEADING BUT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING HIM AND WILL ALERT YOU TO ANY SUDDEN STOPS OR CHANGES IN COURSE. IF JIM CANTORE'S WEATHER CHANNEL SUV STOPS IN YOUR AREA QUICKLY FINISH BOARDING YOUR WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY
COASTAL RESIDENTS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KNOTS...AND
INCREASING WAVES. BOATERS...SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...
UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS SUBSIDE AND
JIM CANTORE HAS UNLASHED HIMSELF FROM THE LIGHT POST AND LEFT YOUR AREA.
That's terrific!
bump
:-)
LOL!
Ha! Well done!
It's only June 10 and this thing is going to come no where near us - but let me tell you I am already sick of hurricane season.
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