Reminder-Ohio CD-2 election on Tuesday (Hackett needs to be made an example of)

[johnmecainrino]

Hackett is two faced, he attacks bush calling him a chicken hawk, sob, and the biggest threat facing america even greater than al queda then uses his image in a campaign commercial.

I have seen republicans being duped by this guy. He is a personal injury frivolous trial lawyer in the mold of John Edwards. His lawsuits even put John Edwards to shame. Just because he is for gun rights doesn't mean he is a conservative dem. Quite the contrary he is a tax hiking trial lawyer that is also for gay marraige and against any abortion restrictions.

He is for raising social security taxes.

A Hackett win would spur on many more John Kerry types in the coming years.

[ncountylee]

Hackett is the new DU poster boy.

Hackett help threads: Contribute, Volunteer or Phone Bank; 5 days left

Please donate to Paul Hackett if you can!

[SC33]

I was under the impression that he was a long-shot at best.

[GoBucks2002]

Well, the MSM is doing their best to make it seem like he is the favorite. They have aided and abetted his cloaking of his image as a moderate to conservative war veteran. Schmidt was too tame to hit back and expose him for the lying fraud that he is.

I still think it is going to be a good win for Schmidt. Check my blog for my predictions and experiences with the Schmidt team.

[SC33]

I just hate how the MSM is trying to portray him as representative of all our soldiers.

[johnmecainrino]

Special elections in the middle of the summer are tricky. Turnout can be very unpredictable.

Race must be close because the national gop put in 500,000.

Some leaked polling has the race at 5 points.

[uscabjd]

Which way?

[johnmecainrino]

5 points for Schmidt but that she had lost some of her lead.

The gop 2 to 1 advantage in this district doesn't mean this seat is safe.

It is a special election in the middle of the summer.

No incumbent

Race isn't a presidential election where party line vote would be more predictable. Perfect example is Bush won the congressional seat which includes Crawford by 64 percent the same as he won this ohio district by but in the Crawford district Chet Edwards a liberal dem won by 3 percent.

Dem candidate has gotten much more press coverage.

[johnmecainrino]

Correction Bush won the crawford texas congressional district with 64 percent, meaning he won the congressional district by 30 percent 64-34 about. He also won the ohio congressional district getting 64 percent winning by 30 points over Kerry.

Ohio rural counties tend to vote differently for congressional races too.

Last year Bush won Allen county 2 to 1 and a dem challenger won that county.

Trouble spots for this district are the eastern poor portions like portsmouth and the western portion of the district which includes some eastern cincinnati wards.

Schmidt will need a big margin in Clermont county her home base to put her over the top.

[libs_kma]

He is a long shot. The MSM is giving this all they have to make it sound like he has a chance.

They are beat and they know it. Remember, southern Ohio is the GWB part of Ohio. The DUmmie part of Ohio is Cleveland and the northern part.

[litany_of_lies]

I think it's crazy to trust a poll from this district, because it's all about turnout (predicting who is a likely voter, and how likely), because it's so spread out, and because it depends so much on where you were actually able to make contact with people.

The first point above (turnout) is the biggest. It was something like 12%-15% in the primary. If Hackett somehow gets Dems to show up in force (like a third), and the GOP doesn't get above its primary numbers, he can pull off the upset, even with a 2-1 GOP registration advantage.

As to the substance of your fears about how dangerous Hackett is (link is to a collection of blogposts and cartoons on the 2nd District race), I couldn't agree more. He's making Der Schleikmeister look like an amateur.

[DrDeb]

I just posted the following comment on another thread:

I do live in Ohio's 2nd Congressional District (Clermont County) and I will be voting for Schmidt on Tuesday . . . In the meantime, I'm/we're taking nothing forgranted -- hubby and I had taken off the next two days to celebrate our 25th wedding anniversary; however, we plan to spend at least half of our time volunteering for the campaign!

And you're right, Clermont County is the key . . . If turn out is high in Clermont County, Schmidt wins; if not . . . !

[GoBucks2002]

Ohio rural counties tend to vote differently for congressional races too.

Your Allen County factoid is fine, but it is an unusual exception. Even in the district in question, Bush won all of the other 10 counties easily-- and the Republican incumbent won all of them, too.

Oh, and BTW, all the other counties in that district are rural, too. In fact, Allen County has Lima, the largest city in that district. The argument could be made that Allen County is the LEAST rural in that district.

Here's another BTW, Rob Portman actually ran *ahead* of President Bush in this district. No sane person expcets Schmidt to put up Portman numbers, especially due to the low turnout, but 64% (Bush's number) is more reasonable.

I can't believe the number of Freepers who have suddenly decided the MSM is treating this race fairly and the lefty blogs are paragons of truth-telling.

[GoBucks2002]

Special elections in the middle of the summer are tricky. Turnout can be very unpredictable.

Just so you know, the MSM has never reported one rather significant FACT about this district: Jean Schmidt received more votes in the primary than the ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC FIELD did.

[balch3]

I gather that the RATS are trying to hang the Coingate thing on Schmidt, and also trying to smear her campaign manager with some kind of sexual innuendo. FWIW. I'm not in the district, but have been following it pretty closely.

[GoBucks2002]

I gather that the RATS are trying to hang the Coingate thing on Schmidt, and also trying to smear her campaign manager with some kind of sexual innuendo.

Coingate is one of them. They also say she is "a career politican in the mold of Bob Taft" and are tying her to every scandal that has ever been mentioned in Columbus. One Hackett ad show a headline from 1998-- years before she was elected to the statehouse! But don't expect Schmidt or the MSM to bring that up!

The sexual innuendo is especially rich. They found out his e-mail nickname from his AOL account, because a message they sent was bounced back. Then, someone went on a BDSM website and created a profile in the same name as his AOL screen name. Then, the profile was "taken down" hours after the allegations surfaced in the blogosphere.

The MSM, to their credit, is not touching this with a 10-foot pole.

[conservative_2001]

I think Schmidt will win, but it won't be by as much as some expect. That would probably be the best result. If Schmidt produces a poor showing it opens the way for a conservative to defeat her in the 2006 primary.

It's disgraceful that the most conservative district in the state can't do better than force us to choose between two tax-hikers. I expect the Democrats to nominate that kind of candidate, but I have higher hopes for Republicans.

[GoBucks2002]

I hope it goes down like you say it will. We CANNOT let Hackett win, because it will spur an avalanche of Dems posing as moderates getting into office on the back of a President they actually despire.

[bushisforpeace]

You're right. There are going to be some disappointed Democrats Wednesday morning.

[eraser2005]

It's disgraceful that the most conservative district in the state can't do better than force us to choose between two tax-hikers

Excuse me while I put my flak jacket on first.... But I think that there actually do need to be some tax hikes put in place. The federal budget has gone from an $80 billion surplus in 2000 to a $567 billion dollar deficit in 2004. 2005 is still looking to turn in a $500 billion deficit. That's an improvement, but not much of one. If you eliminated all nondefense, non homeland security discretionary spending, you'd still have a $150 billion deficit for 2004. You'd have to cut medicare spending in half or eliminate medicaid to balance the budget. Bush's plan never gets us closer than a $474 billion deficit, according to CBO's latest projections. That's PATHETIC.

Spending needs to be cut back and controlled more carefully, but it won't be enough - with the economy strong, we should be able to pull in enough taxes to cover ourselves and stop borrowing from China. What happened to fiscal conservatives who cared about this?