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Posted on 08/26/2005 10:25:04 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.
The following links are self-updating.
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
She is UNBELIEVABLE
This that so typical of the lib loons??? IMHO....
"She is UNBELIEVABLE."
As far as governors are concerned, she's about as weak as they come. The ONLY time I hear her on the radio it's about LITTER. Yep, she says we should "keep Louisiana as clean as it is beautiful".
Was she serious? FGS, what a dolt.
Yup.
Geeze... I don't know. This is one of those things I've seen people talk about for a decade, I can't believe it will happen.
Perhaps we are about to witness a historic event.... one of those watersheds like 9/11, the Challenger, or Kenndy Assassination. While those happened suddely, this is one that will just build over time. Like someone posted, like witnessing a train wreck about to happen and not be able to do anything but watch.
YIKES!!!
Don't want to brag, but when we (3 counties in the Tampa Bay area) were evacuated due to Charley headed our way, the EOC did a masterful job.
Because of Pinellas being a peninsula and the fear that folks exiting the peninsula over the bridges would be stuck on the bridges because of backup in the mainland communities (Hillsborough and Manatee,) the evacuation was ordered in stages.
Not to say everyone had to obey it, or did. But it went very smoothly. Pinellas was evacuated first, then Hillsborough and Manatee.
The traffic issues that could have resulted from such a widespread evac were a nightmare, but all went smoothly.
I was impressed with the plan. That being said, I'm sure it was thought out way in advance, and they started the evac very early.
Luckily, for us, Charley turned and we didn't have to face the consequences of a cat 4 coming ashore at the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Routes out of New Orleans at the choke points:
To the northeast:
I-10 - 2 lanes eastbound
US 90 - 1 lane east
US 11 - 1 lane east
To the north:
Causeway - 2 lanes northbound
To the northwest:
I-10/55 - 3 lanes northwest to the split, then 2 lanes each (I-55 to Jackson, MS and I-10 to Baton Rouge), plus 1 lane north on old US 51 parallel to I-55 after the split.
US-61 (Airline Hwy) - 2 lanes northwest
River Rd/Spillway Rd - 1 lane northwest (a local road running through the river communities and across the wide spillway on the east bank of the Miss. River)
On the west bank of the Miss. River:
LA 18 - 1 lane to the northwest
LA 3127 - 2 lanes northwest
US 90 - 2 lanes west to Lafayette and I-49/I-10, but also drains Houma, Morgan City, and New Iberia
While some of those will flood earlier, others can have their inbound lanes converted to outbound, nearly doubling capacity, plus some have wide shoulders(until breakdowns start to block them.) IIRC, freeway capacity per lane is usually between 1500-2500 cars per hour, depending on speed. At 10 mph a lane should still move 1800+ per hour.
Ian... I know that you must be getting ready to tear down a relocate. I want you to know that this move of yours comes at a really bad time! LOL How long do you expect that you will be out of the loop ?
Not only was she serious Howlin...her whole manner was one of a mother skirting the issue of S-E-X with her 12 yr old daughter. It's real, it's there, it will happen, but let's kinda make it seem like a little afternoon excursion...
Still shaking my head...it could go down as one of the MOST inane liberal politician's comments of all time.
Folks.....make sure if you attend a house of worship tomorrow that praying about this is on the agenda.
A cat 5 in NO! It is almost unthinkable.
true
I remember a bad storm flooding Louisiana in the mid 70's, people hanging onto makeshift rafts had to fight off all the snakes that were looking for a high spot. The snakes turned out to be a big problem for them down there.
haven't seen her around here the past several days. Her last FR post was yesterday afternoon.
its possible....one saving grace is that when coming from the south there is a buffer of land....although marshy...and hurricanes weaken rapidly after landfall....so it would really take a cat 5 to do the catastrophic damage that is theorized...
latest recon:
948mb...the weakening has leveled. winds still well below what the pressure would indicate.
With Canes...it's got to happen sometime...OMG...praying for NO...and all it's residents... ;o( The Monster is coming....
What does she mean by "contraflow"?
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| Today's Discussion |
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Today's Discussion Posted: August 27, 2005 2:23 p.m.
A hurricane watch is now in effect for the southeastern coast of
Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. A hurricane watch will likely be issued later today for other portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical storm warning for West of Key West to the Dry Tortugas. Hurricane Katrina was centered near 24.5 north and 85.4 west as of 2:00 p.m. EDT Saturday. This is about 390 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with gusts to 140 mph, making Katrina a Category 3 hurricane. Katrina is moving west at about 7 mph. The minimum central pressure remains at 949 mb, or 28.82 inches. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the storm's center, while hurricane force winds have a radius of nearly 40 miles. MAXIMUM WIND GUST REPORTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA FROM KATRINA: MIAMI/TAMIAMI, FLORIDA: 81 MPH MIAMI, FLORIDA: 78 MPH FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA: 68 MPH BOCA RATON, FLORIDA: 65 MPH PORT EVERGLADES, FLORIDA: 92 MPH KEY WEST, FLORIDA: 74 MPH DRY TORTUGAS: 81 with a gust to 105 MPH RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE STORM ENDING 11 A.M. SATURDAY: HOMESTEAD, FLORIDA: 13.62" KEY WEST, FLORIDA: 9.91", MARATHON, FLORIDA: 7.89" While Katrina remains on a westerly track, a bend to the right may begin to occur later Saturday or Saturday night and a more to the northwest on Sunday, in the general direction of the central Gulf Coast. The storm's movement is being caused by an upper-level high pressure area centered over the southeast US. This high pressure ridge will split, with one part sliding westward and the other becoming a stronger extension of the Atlantic high. Weakness will result in the upper-level wind flow over the central Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday, and Katrina will be driven poleward into that weakness. Katrina remains a Category 3 hurricane and is appears to be going through eye wall replacement as minimum pressure has risen since Saturday morning. It has an outer eye wall at 50 miles in diameter and an inner eye wall that is in the process of reforming. We should see another drop in pressure later Saturday as the inner eye wall becomes better organized. Further intensification is likely, and Katrina should be a Category 4 hurricane by Saturday night or early Sunday, and could even reach Category 5 intensity. The hurricane will be moving into an area of very warm and deep waters and upper level wind shear will be low during Saturday and Sunday. The track and future second landfall for Katrina depends on how quickly the upper level high splits over the Southeast and how strong the upper level trough coming in from the northwest digs southwest. The most recent computer models show a consensus track over southeast Louisiana. One concern is that if the upper ridge remains stronger than expected then Katrina would continue on a westerly track longer and the overall track would shift to the west. Our latest thinking is that Katrina will make landfall Monday afternoon over extreme southeastern Louisiana. Conditions will begin to deteriorate later Sunday, well in advance of the storm, with tropical storm force winds reaching the coast later Sunday night and hurricane force winds reaching the coast later Monday morning or early Monday afternoon. In addition to the winds, which will be strong enough to down not only trees and power lines, but also bring down structures and make missiles out of debris. As the storm nears the coast Monday, a devastating storm surge will be pushed into the lower Mississippi Delta as the powerful southeasterly winds pile water into the area. The storm will also bring flooding rains well inland, and the risk for tornadoes north and east of the path of the center. Elsewhere in the tropics Saturday, a tropical wave along 39 west, south of 18 north, is moving west at 10-15 knots. A tropical low pressure system is now located near 20 north and 51 west; this is in an area with too much shear for development now, but as the shear weakens over the next 24-48 hours, the low could become a tropical depression. This low is moving northwest at 10 knots; no threat to land in the immediate future. Another tropical wave along 88 west, south of 19 north, is moving west at 15 knots. |
| Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean Links |
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so 57 hours to go at 7 MPH?one problem it should be picking up some speed as it moves towards the coast
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