Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Jrabbit]

My husband just asked me the same thing.....wanted me to see if anyone knew what the heck that means!

[NautiNurse]

That's what I was wondering...did you hear him say it? Was on the streaming video.

[Tuxedo]

The latest from NHC suggest that the wind field is expanding. Interesting that a 939 mb pressure should equate to higher wind speed than 115 MPH. Not sure if that is due though to increased wind field though. Basically, it is getting bigger but not necessarily stronger right now. Starting to make the turn too it would seem.

[NautiNurse]

I thought he said there has never been a mandatory evacuation in the history of New Orleans.

[jeeperz]

The mayor said he hopes to have the legal authority for mandatory evac by morning.

[Jrabbit]

Exactly.....that's why my hubby asked. Never? That seems rather odd.

[Tuxedo]

There is a significant crime element in NO that is probably making the officials a little skittish about forcing everyone out. Maybe they are just banking on common sense right now prevailing.

[NautiNurse]

that's what I heard. go figure.

[fooman]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/tghur2.gif?

[NautiNurse]

Very good--thanks for bringing that over here.

[Jrabbit]

It's a nightmare for the poor souls that have nowhere to go.....shelters will be worthless won't they?

[bannie]

After looking at your graphic...is it self-righteous for me to ask why anyone lives there?

[alancarp]

I read that too, but let me add to the point from Accuweather (a snip from a copyrighted column, but I do this in the interest of public safety, of course):

"The central pressure of the storm now at 942 [at the time of that post] is the lowest pressure ever reported with a storm of winds of 115 mph. In a study of the last 10 years, all storms with pressures of 952 or lower had winds of 120 miles or more on TPC bulletins and the average was [125.1 mph] . The only storm I could find with a pressure of 950 and windspeed of 115 was Hugo, another storm i was ranting about when such things were getting reported since the true wind of the storm in landfall situations of tropical cyclones where pressures are falling, will be ramped up. It is my contention that there are higher winds, that the flight level winds are probably down at the surface though maybe not right under the strong winds. But with the pressures so low, the transfer of the wind to the surface is easier to occur."

[Ellesu]

The Mayor said he and his lawyers are considering a mandatory evacuation, he is trying to see if the hospitals and hotels can be exempt. He will announce in the morning, his decision.

[Ellesu]

The Mayor said he and his lawyers are considering a mandatory evacuation, he is trying to see if the hospitals and hotels can be exempt. He will announce in the morning, his decision.

[Jrabbit]

hmmm....ok, I guess that makes sense....except the hospitals and hotels will be under water, no?

[NautiNurse]

What does that mean for hospitals and hotels to be exempt? Exempt from evacuation or some charter that prevents it? This is amazing.

[highimpact]

It's a nightmare for the poor souls that have nowhere to go.....shelters will be worthless won't they?

The Superdome has 4 or 5 levels. Certainly the top three or four would be above the floodline (assuming the structure can hold up). Seating capacity is aroung 60,000 I believe, with room for thousands more on the outer concourses.

[skr]

Have been praying throughout the day and will be sending more petitions to Him.

[Termite_Commander]

I hope he can speed it up. With Katrina getting so dang big, it won't be long until the wind and rain starts, and that's going to be a nightmare to evacuate through.

Depending on where this lands, if he delays a mandatory evac, he could risk even more lives by having hundreds of people in gridlock as a Cat 4 storm rolls through.