Posted on 09/20/2005 2:24:22 PM PDT by TitansAFC
"Will Hoevel run in ND?"
I have no idea. If he does run, I expect he will unseat Kent Conrad by a slim margin.
"Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?"
The GOP is a slight favorite to take Minnesota, where Congressman Mark Kennedy will probably face Hennipen County District Amy Klobuchar. In Michigan, former Detriot Councilman Keith Butler is interesting and unconventional, but whether that amounts to competitive remains to be seen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin looks to be safe.
"Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?"
I think you mean Ohio. Yes, it's in play because Senator Mike DeWine is posting dangerously low approval ratings. Luckily, no first-tier Democrats are interesting in running. Former Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who was almost elected Congressman from a heavily GOP district recently, is thinking of running.
"Is Santorum already dead and buried?"
Not yet, but if he keeps up his blundering, he will be. His bloopers include: claiming that employed mothers are motivated to work by laziness instead of economic need, claiming that the people of Boston were personally responsible for sexually abusive priests, supporting the crappy CAFTA treaty in a state with a history of protectionism, and implying that New Orleans disaster victims deserved what they got. The slogan "Apologize now, it will save time later" applies to him very well. Incidently, it's a mistake to say that his opponent, state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., is being mistaken for his father. In Pennsylvania, it's well known that Bob Casey, Sr. is dead.
"Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?"
Florida is remaining with the GOP rather than moving towards it. Bill Nelson can definitely be defeated, but whether Katherine Harris is the candidate who can do it is another question entirely.
"Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?"
With Governor Jim Douglas not running, only if Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is the nominee. And it looks like he will run. However, even with Dubie as the nominee, it'll be difficult to defeat "Independent" Socialist Bernie Sanders.
"Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?"
Not if Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito runs. In fact, if she is the candidate, I predict she will win a narrow victory over the visibly aging Byrd.
"Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?"
I see a couple of possibilities. Michigan, which I've already mentioned, could produce a surprise. In New Mexico, I don't rule out Santa Fe Councilman David Pfeffer upsetting Jeff Bingaman. In New Jersey, growing Democratic infighting over Jon Corzine's successor once he's elected Governor gives RINO Tom Kean, Jr., the son and namesake of a beloved ex-Governor, a shot. And unless you count Sen. Lincoln Chafee as a Republican (which is questionable, in spite of his formal affiliation), Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey is worth watching.
"What will the final tally be?"
Too soon to say. Incidently, races in Washington state and Maryland also provide the GOP with pickup opportunities. A victory in Maryland by Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele would be cause for celebration even if Democrats do well in other races next year.
Burns at 51? Lousy number for a GOP incumbent, especially a fairly senior one, in a supposedly red state. Of course, Burns should win if he doesn't have a strong opponent, but he does, I believe.
Also, from what I've heard, he's stupid and a lousy debater, etc.
"stupidest post of the day ..." blah blah blah ...
You'll have to do a lot better than that, "Fan."
Maybe your time is better spent watching the Mighty Ducks.
Go back to your couch, kick back with a cold one and chips,
and fantasize about Bush's powerhouse presidency. I just don't see it. Maybe someone of more talent than you can point it out to me. If they do, I'll be glad to admit it.
If the question is Ohio, not Okla., yes, I'd say DeWine might be in trouble. A squish cannot turn into a leader overnight. The state party has real problems, and the Rats will pour more money into this race, if there's a good candidate, than you can imagine. And unfortunately, as we learned, Ohio is a closely divided state.
From what I've read, the Democrats are divided among candidates, so who Burns will face is still up in the air. His 51% isn't bad when you consider his opponents are in the thirties below him, and the polls have been fairly consitent up until now. Burns was supposed to be in for some real trouble (and he still might) but as of now, it's not panning out.
Sorry, folks!
The question should read:
"Is Nebraska REALLY in play?"
Not Oklahoma.
Actually, both races appear to be in play. Maria Cantwell of Washington posts lackluster approval ratings and hasn't made much of an impression. Her opponent, Mike McGavick, is even more wealthy than she is and has polled well in recent match-ups.
In New Jersey, all bets are off until Jon Corzine is elected Governor and appoints a successor. Congressmen Bob Menendez, Robert Andrews, and Frank Pallone all STRONGLY want to be appointed to the seat, and have strong factions of support within the party. Corzine won't be able to please all of them. And the GOP candidate, state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., is the son and namesake of a beloved former Governor who could take advantage of any rift in the Democrat ranks.
Like I said, I'd cheerfully bet at even odds that the Democrats keep both seats. This means that if the GOP takes either one, I lose. Are you taking me up on it? How much are you willing to lose?
Probably not, which is a pity since the right candidate (yes, I'm looking at you, Rep. Osborne!) could knock off Nelson, but Stenberg will have a tough battle and will probably lose.
My guess is yes. I think the odds are 60/40 that he'll run.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Minnesota is a pure toss up.
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Not this election cycle, no. In part that's because there's no Senate election in 2006.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Yep..
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Yes, but probably not next year, and almost certainly not with Harris as the nominee.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Yes, but it won't be next year. Governor Douglas could do it, but he's not running.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
In my view, yes. But that's a minority view, especially around here.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
Hmm.. Nebraska definitely. Also New Jersey.
What will the final tally be?
If the election were held today it'd be a wash. Dems pick up Pennsylvania and GOP picks up Minnesota.
Because he doesn't want the job. He's probably dreaming about Ablany or Washington D.C.
He would more likely succeed Pataki than be elected to a national office. He can't get support from cultural conservatives for the latter.
I once had high hopes that Jeanine Pirro would, at least, make the race against Hillary Clinton competitive. But so far, her campaign has gotten off to a stumbling start. I'm starting to wonder if she even wants the job.
Any Ohioan who loves freedom and believes in smaller government and votes for dewine, deserves what they get.........
Good analysis, but I think you're overstating our chances of pulling off the upset in NM and understating our chances in WA and especially MD.
Rudi can win in NY. He won the mayorship, he can win a senate seat. He's doing the party a disservice by not erasing Hillary.
There are a little over 5 million registered dems in NY to a little over 3 million pubbies. That's not counting over 300,000 Conservatives that have little use for either party. Rudi's career in government has always been in the executive branch. He doesn't want to be a legislator, or take the chance of losing another race for a job he doesn't want.
Why do you think he dropped out of the race in 2000? I know his father died from prostate cancer, IIRC. Nevertheless, most men with it die from something else. It was a convenient excuse, IMHO.
Absoluely magnificent and prescient analysis. GOP +2 it is.
Your scorched-earth attitude is of no help. DeWine is a sissy. The Rats are thugs. To me, that's a real difference.
Actually, I think he dropped out for two reasons. He had prostate cancer and his ex wife was poised to hit him with embarrassing details of divorce during the campaign.
Both those items would not obstruct a Senate run. As for the disparity in party registration, he won the mayor race of NYC and that's the source of most of the Dem disparity.
He can win in NY. He can erase Hillary. He's doing a disservice to the party by not erasing her.
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