Posted on 09/20/2005 2:24:22 PM PDT by TitansAFC
How do you see it playing out?
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
What will the final tally be?
I'll post my thoughts later. Just want to get a feel from fellow Freepers.
The recent numbers for santorum looked exceedingly grim.
Sure would be nice to unseat Byrd, I think it's possible.
Every close senate race except Colorado broke in favor of republicans last time.
I wouldn't expect the same to hold true this time, unless something drastic changes. I am suspecting that a lot of the decline in poll numbers recently reflects disaffection of the base with the GOP. Unless the current Administration and Congress starts acting remotely conservative on a variety of issues, I don't expect a lot of enthusiasm for getting out to the polls in 2006.
There's NO race in Oklahoma...did you perhaps mean Ohio?
Good GOP chances in NJ and Wash..because of all the Dem scandals...voters in one of the states might just take it out on the Dem candidate..
Democrats were hoping to knock off Mike "Gang of Seven" DeWine, but all their top-tier choices have passed, which means he probably is a strong favorite for re-election. Paul Hackett, however, is rumored to still be in contention.
Yes, Hoeven (not Hoevel) will probably run, and will be the prohibitive favorite to win if he does.
The GOP can and likely will take one of the Great Lakes States: Minnesota.
Ohio (not Oklahoma) would be in play if the Democrats had a highly visible candidate. DeWine may get a scare but is likely to win.
Santorum isn't dead and buried, but I wouldn't sign a long-term lease in Washington if I were him.
We are unlikely to pick up Florida, depending on the nominee. The nomination process has been horribly mishandled by the GOP and we're likely to come out of it with a badly battered and weakened Harris as a candidate. Pity; missed opportunity.
Jeffords's seat is almost certain to go to Bernie Sanders.
Byrd is not an inevitable winner; the state may be renamed after him but many West Virginians are honestly getting embarrassed by the old Klansman. Capito has a decent shot if she runs.
Yes, there is a dark horse race where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset: Maryland (Sarbanes open). As Mfume and Cardin duke it out with each other, Lt. Gov. Steele has an excellent chance if he runs, which I predict he will.
The final tally will be somewhere between a wash and GOP +2.
Any other questions?
Why Republicans ever think they have a chance in NJ, I have no idea. And there are precious few candidates in Washington capable of knocking off Cantwell. Rossi might've been able to do it, but he passed.
I'd cheerfully bet at even odds that the Democrats win both races.
There was a rumor that Lott might not run again...that would make Mississippi an open seat, but one the Republicans should be able to hold.
ping...
I think you meant Ohio.
I don't honestly think Ohio is in play. I think DeWhiner is relatively safe, assuming he doesn't step on his weenie between now and the election.
The Dems in Ohio are a perfect example of disarray. I mean Bubba Bob Taft got elected twice here.
NJ is trending more Dem every year, true, but many are suburban..and many vesytiges of Reagan Dems..everydecade or so, the voters get disgusted with the level of corruption and incompetence in the state Dem party, and take out their anger on the next Dem who is running.. In1976, I think it was....virtual unknown Jeff Bell came within a whisker of beating Bill Badley..and then there was Whitman's waxing of Florio..
Hoeven will not run, because serving in a do-nothing Senate under a weak president who will probably be succeeded by a Democrat isn't an attractive prospect.
Can the GOP take one from the Great Lakes states: Michigan, no. Wisconsin, no. Minnesota, yes, because there isn't an incumbent.
Oklahoma in play? God, I hope not. And I would guess not.
Santorum dead? No, but it will need to be a very well-funded and very aggressive campaign. And he'll still need some luck.
Florida trending GOP? I don't know. Can we beat Nelson? Yes, though it won't be easy and a bloody primary won't help.
Can we win Jeffords' seat? No.
Byrd an inevitable winner? No. At his age, some voters will seriously consider whether he can go another round.
He's also made quite an ass of himself. Finally, Bush did very well in W.Va. last year. Capito has a 1 in 3 shot if she runs against Byrd. In the unlikely event Byrd retires, Capito runs and wins.
Dark horse upset for GOP? Conceivable in New Mexico if Pfeiffer (sp.?) runs a flawless, well-funded campaign and hits HARD on immigration. Otherwise, no.
Final tally: GOP loses Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and probably Montana. Rats may, at best (for GOP), lose Minnesota, Florida and West Virginia. Best guess,
net GOP loss of 2. (Sorry.)
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play? NO
Is Santorum already dead and buried? YES
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?NO
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?NO
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?NO
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?WV
What will the final tally be?Do not know
Montana isn't proving as fruitful for the Democrats as they'd like. I saw a recent poll putting Conrad Burns at 51% against his possible Democratic rivals.
1) Declining poll numbers are substantially a result of pollsters not polling hurricane hit areas, which are Bush states. Ignore them. Check Rasmussen's results.
2) Chaffee in Rhode Island is safe. He stays left of GOP center, but he always votes for a GOP Majority Leader, and that is the most important vote any senator casts.
3) Santorum is not safe. He is also not dead.
4) Nelson in FL is a good candidate and hard to beat.
It's an off-year election. If the GOP retains both houses, it is a big victory, even if we lose a Senate seat or two.
Why is no one drafting Rudy to run against Hillary for her Senate seat?
That's gotta take the cake for the stupidest post of the day. Were you hibernating during last Spring when all that legislation came out of the Senate? I thought the Dems were the doom and gloomers. Some of you so-called "conservatives" have as big a rain cloud following you as any liberal. Guess that's why I'm a neo-conservative. Don't forget your umbrella bub.
Byrd will leave feet first; Santorum is toast.
Will Hoevel run in ND?
I don't know, but I hope so.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Kennedy will most likely take Minnesota. Butler in Michigan is a long shot against Stabenow, he needs fundraising. No way GOP can win Wisconsin
Is Ohio REALLY in play?
No.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
No, he can be saved, but it will will cost a lot of money, and I personally would like to see Rove take over his campaign.
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
I don't know about trending, but I would say it's doubtful that Harris could beat him. Rep. Foley maybe could win if he wasn't forced to spend all his money to beat Harris in a primary.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Not sure, but probably not. I think the Lt. Governor of Vermont (R) just declared like yesterday, but I haven't seen any polling. But I think a well funded candidate has a chance seeing as how Sanders is independent.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
No, but it is going to be harder than it should be. Capito is a good candidate and one would think that the more WV really knows about Byrd, the less they will want to vote for him.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
I think Steele in MD is too good to be called a dark horse, but Cardin is a worthy challenge. Butler in Michigan perhaps, or maybe even a challenger to Cantwell in WA. The real dark horse would be the guy running against Chaffey in the GOP primary beating him and then winning the general election, but that horse is so dark I can't see it.
What will the final tally be?
Worst case: GOP loses PA, MT, TN (Frist's seat now) and one of MO, RI, or WY. All dems hold GOP -4 (less than 10% chance of this). GOP STILL HAS MAJORITY.
Best Case: Santorum pulls the miracle off, GOP gains MN, WV, MD, ND and one of WA, MI, VT, or FL. GOP +5 (TAKE THAT RINOS)
Most likely case: Santorum goes down, Chaffey wins, Kennedy takes MN for pubs, Burns holds on in MT, Nelson wins in FL, Stabenow holds MI, Cantwell reelected in WA, Byrd wins in WV, Pub candidate holds TN, Hoeven wins ND, Socialist Bernie wins VT (we'll count him as a dem), Nelson keeps NE, and Steele beats Cardin for the MD seat, giving us: GOP +2
I don't see the GOP gaining more than 3 or losing seats in 2006.
Yes MN is possible. Real weak Democrat feild. Very strong probable challenge in Mark Kennedy
Good analysis....Dems have many more seast to defend, and if they follow Dean's advice of spending on every race, they'll dilute their resources..
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