Posted on 09/20/2005 2:24:22 PM PDT by TitansAFC
How do you see it playing out?
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
What will the final tally be?
I'll post my thoughts later. Just want to get a feel from fellow Freepers.
The recent numbers for santorum looked exceedingly grim.
Sure would be nice to unseat Byrd, I think it's possible.
Every close senate race except Colorado broke in favor of republicans last time.
I wouldn't expect the same to hold true this time, unless something drastic changes. I am suspecting that a lot of the decline in poll numbers recently reflects disaffection of the base with the GOP. Unless the current Administration and Congress starts acting remotely conservative on a variety of issues, I don't expect a lot of enthusiasm for getting out to the polls in 2006.
There's NO race in Oklahoma...did you perhaps mean Ohio?
Good GOP chances in NJ and Wash..because of all the Dem scandals...voters in one of the states might just take it out on the Dem candidate..
Democrats were hoping to knock off Mike "Gang of Seven" DeWine, but all their top-tier choices have passed, which means he probably is a strong favorite for re-election. Paul Hackett, however, is rumored to still be in contention.
Yes, Hoeven (not Hoevel) will probably run, and will be the prohibitive favorite to win if he does.
The GOP can and likely will take one of the Great Lakes States: Minnesota.
Ohio (not Oklahoma) would be in play if the Democrats had a highly visible candidate. DeWine may get a scare but is likely to win.
Santorum isn't dead and buried, but I wouldn't sign a long-term lease in Washington if I were him.
We are unlikely to pick up Florida, depending on the nominee. The nomination process has been horribly mishandled by the GOP and we're likely to come out of it with a badly battered and weakened Harris as a candidate. Pity; missed opportunity.
Jeffords's seat is almost certain to go to Bernie Sanders.
Byrd is not an inevitable winner; the state may be renamed after him but many West Virginians are honestly getting embarrassed by the old Klansman. Capito has a decent shot if she runs.
Yes, there is a dark horse race where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset: Maryland (Sarbanes open). As Mfume and Cardin duke it out with each other, Lt. Gov. Steele has an excellent chance if he runs, which I predict he will.
The final tally will be somewhere between a wash and GOP +2.
Any other questions?
Why Republicans ever think they have a chance in NJ, I have no idea. And there are precious few candidates in Washington capable of knocking off Cantwell. Rossi might've been able to do it, but he passed.
I'd cheerfully bet at even odds that the Democrats win both races.
There was a rumor that Lott might not run again...that would make Mississippi an open seat, but one the Republicans should be able to hold.
ping...
I think you meant Ohio.
I don't honestly think Ohio is in play. I think DeWhiner is relatively safe, assuming he doesn't step on his weenie between now and the election.
The Dems in Ohio are a perfect example of disarray. I mean Bubba Bob Taft got elected twice here.
NJ is trending more Dem every year, true, but many are suburban..and many vesytiges of Reagan Dems..everydecade or so, the voters get disgusted with the level of corruption and incompetence in the state Dem party, and take out their anger on the next Dem who is running.. In1976, I think it was....virtual unknown Jeff Bell came within a whisker of beating Bill Badley..and then there was Whitman's waxing of Florio..
Hoeven will not run, because serving in a do-nothing Senate under a weak president who will probably be succeeded by a Democrat isn't an attractive prospect.
Can the GOP take one from the Great Lakes states: Michigan, no. Wisconsin, no. Minnesota, yes, because there isn't an incumbent.
Oklahoma in play? God, I hope not. And I would guess not.
Santorum dead? No, but it will need to be a very well-funded and very aggressive campaign. And he'll still need some luck.
Florida trending GOP? I don't know. Can we beat Nelson? Yes, though it won't be easy and a bloody primary won't help.
Can we win Jeffords' seat? No.
Byrd an inevitable winner? No. At his age, some voters will seriously consider whether he can go another round.
He's also made quite an ass of himself. Finally, Bush did very well in W.Va. last year. Capito has a 1 in 3 shot if she runs against Byrd. In the unlikely event Byrd retires, Capito runs and wins.
Dark horse upset for GOP? Conceivable in New Mexico if Pfeiffer (sp.?) runs a flawless, well-funded campaign and hits HARD on immigration. Otherwise, no.
Final tally: GOP loses Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and probably Montana. Rats may, at best (for GOP), lose Minnesota, Florida and West Virginia. Best guess,
net GOP loss of 2. (Sorry.)
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play? NO
Is Santorum already dead and buried? YES
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?NO
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?NO
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?NO
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?WV
What will the final tally be?Do not know
Montana isn't proving as fruitful for the Democrats as they'd like. I saw a recent poll putting Conrad Burns at 51% against his possible Democratic rivals.
1) Declining poll numbers are substantially a result of pollsters not polling hurricane hit areas, which are Bush states. Ignore them. Check Rasmussen's results.
2) Chaffee in Rhode Island is safe. He stays left of GOP center, but he always votes for a GOP Majority Leader, and that is the most important vote any senator casts.
3) Santorum is not safe. He is also not dead.
4) Nelson in FL is a good candidate and hard to beat.
It's an off-year election. If the GOP retains both houses, it is a big victory, even if we lose a Senate seat or two.
Why is no one drafting Rudy to run against Hillary for her Senate seat?
That's gotta take the cake for the stupidest post of the day. Were you hibernating during last Spring when all that legislation came out of the Senate? I thought the Dems were the doom and gloomers. Some of you so-called "conservatives" have as big a rain cloud following you as any liberal. Guess that's why I'm a neo-conservative. Don't forget your umbrella bub.
Byrd will leave feet first; Santorum is toast.
Will Hoevel run in ND?
I don't know, but I hope so.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Kennedy will most likely take Minnesota. Butler in Michigan is a long shot against Stabenow, he needs fundraising. No way GOP can win Wisconsin
Is Ohio REALLY in play?
No.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
No, he can be saved, but it will will cost a lot of money, and I personally would like to see Rove take over his campaign.
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
I don't know about trending, but I would say it's doubtful that Harris could beat him. Rep. Foley maybe could win if he wasn't forced to spend all his money to beat Harris in a primary.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Not sure, but probably not. I think the Lt. Governor of Vermont (R) just declared like yesterday, but I haven't seen any polling. But I think a well funded candidate has a chance seeing as how Sanders is independent.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
No, but it is going to be harder than it should be. Capito is a good candidate and one would think that the more WV really knows about Byrd, the less they will want to vote for him.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
I think Steele in MD is too good to be called a dark horse, but Cardin is a worthy challenge. Butler in Michigan perhaps, or maybe even a challenger to Cantwell in WA. The real dark horse would be the guy running against Chaffey in the GOP primary beating him and then winning the general election, but that horse is so dark I can't see it.
What will the final tally be?
Worst case: GOP loses PA, MT, TN (Frist's seat now) and one of MO, RI, or WY. All dems hold GOP -4 (less than 10% chance of this). GOP STILL HAS MAJORITY.
Best Case: Santorum pulls the miracle off, GOP gains MN, WV, MD, ND and one of WA, MI, VT, or FL. GOP +5 (TAKE THAT RINOS)
Most likely case: Santorum goes down, Chaffey wins, Kennedy takes MN for pubs, Burns holds on in MT, Nelson wins in FL, Stabenow holds MI, Cantwell reelected in WA, Byrd wins in WV, Pub candidate holds TN, Hoeven wins ND, Socialist Bernie wins VT (we'll count him as a dem), Nelson keeps NE, and Steele beats Cardin for the MD seat, giving us: GOP +2
I don't see the GOP gaining more than 3 or losing seats in 2006.
Yes MN is possible. Real weak Democrat feild. Very strong probable challenge in Mark Kennedy
Good analysis....Dems have many more seast to defend, and if they follow Dean's advice of spending on every race, they'll dilute their resources..
"Will Hoevel run in ND?"
I have no idea. If he does run, I expect he will unseat Kent Conrad by a slim margin.
"Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?"
The GOP is a slight favorite to take Minnesota, where Congressman Mark Kennedy will probably face Hennipen County District Amy Klobuchar. In Michigan, former Detriot Councilman Keith Butler is interesting and unconventional, but whether that amounts to competitive remains to be seen. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin looks to be safe.
"Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?"
I think you mean Ohio. Yes, it's in play because Senator Mike DeWine is posting dangerously low approval ratings. Luckily, no first-tier Democrats are interesting in running. Former Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who was almost elected Congressman from a heavily GOP district recently, is thinking of running.
"Is Santorum already dead and buried?"
Not yet, but if he keeps up his blundering, he will be. His bloopers include: claiming that employed mothers are motivated to work by laziness instead of economic need, claiming that the people of Boston were personally responsible for sexually abusive priests, supporting the crappy CAFTA treaty in a state with a history of protectionism, and implying that New Orleans disaster victims deserved what they got. The slogan "Apologize now, it will save time later" applies to him very well. Incidently, it's a mistake to say that his opponent, state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., is being mistaken for his father. In Pennsylvania, it's well known that Bob Casey, Sr. is dead.
"Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?"
Florida is remaining with the GOP rather than moving towards it. Bill Nelson can definitely be defeated, but whether Katherine Harris is the candidate who can do it is another question entirely.
"Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?"
With Governor Jim Douglas not running, only if Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie is the nominee. And it looks like he will run. However, even with Dubie as the nominee, it'll be difficult to defeat "Independent" Socialist Bernie Sanders.
"Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?"
Not if Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito runs. In fact, if she is the candidate, I predict she will win a narrow victory over the visibly aging Byrd.
"Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?"
I see a couple of possibilities. Michigan, which I've already mentioned, could produce a surprise. In New Mexico, I don't rule out Santa Fe Councilman David Pfeffer upsetting Jeff Bingaman. In New Jersey, growing Democratic infighting over Jon Corzine's successor once he's elected Governor gives RINO Tom Kean, Jr., the son and namesake of a beloved ex-Governor, a shot. And unless you count Sen. Lincoln Chafee as a Republican (which is questionable, in spite of his formal affiliation), Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey is worth watching.
"What will the final tally be?"
Too soon to say. Incidently, races in Washington state and Maryland also provide the GOP with pickup opportunities. A victory in Maryland by Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele would be cause for celebration even if Democrats do well in other races next year.
Burns at 51? Lousy number for a GOP incumbent, especially a fairly senior one, in a supposedly red state. Of course, Burns should win if he doesn't have a strong opponent, but he does, I believe.
Also, from what I've heard, he's stupid and a lousy debater, etc.
"stupidest post of the day ..." blah blah blah ...
You'll have to do a lot better than that, "Fan."
Maybe your time is better spent watching the Mighty Ducks.
Go back to your couch, kick back with a cold one and chips,
and fantasize about Bush's powerhouse presidency. I just don't see it. Maybe someone of more talent than you can point it out to me. If they do, I'll be glad to admit it.
If the question is Ohio, not Okla., yes, I'd say DeWine might be in trouble. A squish cannot turn into a leader overnight. The state party has real problems, and the Rats will pour more money into this race, if there's a good candidate, than you can imagine. And unfortunately, as we learned, Ohio is a closely divided state.
From what I've read, the Democrats are divided among candidates, so who Burns will face is still up in the air. His 51% isn't bad when you consider his opponents are in the thirties below him, and the polls have been fairly consitent up until now. Burns was supposed to be in for some real trouble (and he still might) but as of now, it's not panning out.
Sorry, folks!
The question should read:
"Is Nebraska REALLY in play?"
Not Oklahoma.
Actually, both races appear to be in play. Maria Cantwell of Washington posts lackluster approval ratings and hasn't made much of an impression. Her opponent, Mike McGavick, is even more wealthy than she is and has polled well in recent match-ups.
In New Jersey, all bets are off until Jon Corzine is elected Governor and appoints a successor. Congressmen Bob Menendez, Robert Andrews, and Frank Pallone all STRONGLY want to be appointed to the seat, and have strong factions of support within the party. Corzine won't be able to please all of them. And the GOP candidate, state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., is the son and namesake of a beloved former Governor who could take advantage of any rift in the Democrat ranks.
Like I said, I'd cheerfully bet at even odds that the Democrats keep both seats. This means that if the GOP takes either one, I lose. Are you taking me up on it? How much are you willing to lose?
Probably not, which is a pity since the right candidate (yes, I'm looking at you, Rep. Osborne!) could knock off Nelson, but Stenberg will have a tough battle and will probably lose.
My guess is yes. I think the odds are 60/40 that he'll run.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Minnesota is a pure toss up.
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
Not this election cycle, no. In part that's because there's no Senate election in 2006.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
Yep..
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Yes, but probably not next year, and almost certainly not with Harris as the nominee.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Yes, but it won't be next year. Governor Douglas could do it, but he's not running.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?
In my view, yes. But that's a minority view, especially around here.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
Hmm.. Nebraska definitely. Also New Jersey.
What will the final tally be?
If the election were held today it'd be a wash. Dems pick up Pennsylvania and GOP picks up Minnesota.
Because he doesn't want the job. He's probably dreaming about Ablany or Washington D.C.
He would more likely succeed Pataki than be elected to a national office. He can't get support from cultural conservatives for the latter.
I once had high hopes that Jeanine Pirro would, at least, make the race against Hillary Clinton competitive. But so far, her campaign has gotten off to a stumbling start. I'm starting to wonder if she even wants the job.
Any Ohioan who loves freedom and believes in smaller government and votes for dewine, deserves what they get.........
Good analysis, but I think you're overstating our chances of pulling off the upset in NM and understating our chances in WA and especially MD.
Rudi can win in NY. He won the mayorship, he can win a senate seat. He's doing the party a disservice by not erasing Hillary.
There are a little over 5 million registered dems in NY to a little over 3 million pubbies. That's not counting over 300,000 Conservatives that have little use for either party. Rudi's career in government has always been in the executive branch. He doesn't want to be a legislator, or take the chance of losing another race for a job he doesn't want.
Why do you think he dropped out of the race in 2000? I know his father died from prostate cancer, IIRC. Nevertheless, most men with it die from something else. It was a convenient excuse, IMHO.
Absoluely magnificent and prescient analysis. GOP +2 it is.
Your scorched-earth attitude is of no help. DeWine is a sissy. The Rats are thugs. To me, that's a real difference.
Actually, I think he dropped out for two reasons. He had prostate cancer and his ex wife was poised to hit him with embarrassing details of divorce during the campaign.
Both those items would not obstruct a Senate run. As for the disparity in party registration, he won the mayor race of NYC and that's the source of most of the Dem disparity.
He can win in NY. He can erase Hillary. He's doing a disservice to the party by not erasing her.
Click on the banner and click on articles on the left-hand toolbar. Read the long endorsement by Pfeffer of Bush's re-election.
He has aspects of David Horowitz and Zel Miller in his conversion--NM's preponderantly Dem, and he's an ex-.
Bingaman is a wholly-owned subsidiary of PAW, NARAL, NEA, et al.
Domenici said he couldn't put ANWR on the energy bill "because we wouldn't be standing her if we did."
And Bingaman was standing next to him. If NM dumped Bingaman, Americans could pay less at the pump before the next election for that senate seat.
And immigration? Read Pfeffer's position--to the right of that life-long Republican he endorsed for re-election.
He even endorsed the Minutemen's work, rather than slander them with "vigilantes".
Intelligent, principled positions vs Bingaman's leftist ATM.
Hardly.
If an elected official refuses to represent the best interests of his or her constituents, only a fool would continue to support that officeholder.
Same holds true for an unelected candidate.
And please don't start with the "any vote not for a repub is a vote for a democrat" nonsense. It just isn't true.
dewine has proved himself unworthy.
That's because DeWine is a spineless, cowardly RINO POS who's been lobotomized by Beltway libs.
He campaigned as a "Rush Limbaugh" guy but legislates like a "Lincoln Chafee" loser.
Will Hoevel run in ND?
Hoeven will run, and I'm guessing will win by a close margin.
Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?
Yes. We likely will win Minnesota. The MN GOP has already rallied around one very strong candidate, and the Dem primary is getting bloodier every day, and none of the candidates are first teir. Why this is the case, I couldn't tell you, but it is. Let's hope the dems don't get their act together. If they don't, we'll destroy them. If they do, then we'll probably still win, but it'll be tougher.
Is Oklahoma REALLY in play?
You mean Ohio? Since there is no race in Oklahoma? If you mean Ohio, no. DeWine will be easily re-elected. The Governor's mansion...that's a different story unfortunately. And in some ways, deservedly so.
Is Santorum already dead and buried?
No. He's still sitting on a pile of cash, and Casy Jr. has a glass jaw. But it's gonna be tough.
Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?
Probably not. But I wouldn't write it off yet. I sure wish Galligher would run for Senate. If he could beat Harris the primary, he'd trash Nelson. I actually think Harris could have beaten him, but all the negavite publicity about people worrying about her isn't helping. Still, I wouldn't write it off, but I'd put it in the 'leaning Dem' category.
Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?
Jim Douglas maybe, maybe could have won it. Now, it is possible, IF the D's run a candidate. Which actually is possible, from what I understand. But this is the equivilant of a triple bank shot. I wouldn't put money on it.
Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be
renamed after him in the next ten years?
No. Heck, I think if we can even force him to run a real campaign, he might drop dead. I AM NOT WISHING FOR THIS, merely observing that he is really old, and not in great health. He might not run at all if Capito runs. And I think he'd be only slightly above 50/50 if he does.
Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?
Michigan. Butler, while he has no name ID and is given litte chance, is extremely charismatic, and has won as an R in the most D city in the country (Detroit). I wouldn't bet on it, but if there was an unexpected race to turn our way, this would be the one.
That is, assuming you consider Maryland with Steele a real contest and not a long shot, which I don't. I think it's 50/50.
What will the final tally be?
GOP +1, possibly 2 or 3 though. Worst case is -1. I'd say win ND, MN, lose RI (which wouldn't be a real loss, who'd really care?), Penn & one unexpected (such as Talent or Burns) is the worst realistic case. Best realistic case would be win at least 3 of WV, MN, ND, NE, FL, ML, and lose nothing.
That's actually not true. DeWine's voting record is fairly conservative. Nowhere near Chafee.
He might not be the strongest conservative voice in the Senate, but he's no Chafee. He's not even a Voinovich.
if Voinovich can get easily reelected, DeWhine can too.
It all depends on if he separates himself from Taft and how soon he does it.
but my guess right now is that he will get re-elected with about 55-60% of the vote when the time comes.
You mean, freedom and smaller government?
Whether DeWine himself believes in freedom and smaller government is quite irrelevant. I'd vote for Senator Karl Marx on the GOP ticket before I'd vote for Senator Ayn Rand on the Democratic ticket... because a senator is just one vote out of 100. What's important is who the Senate majority is, because that majority decides what's brought to a vote, and controls (and chairs) every single committee. I'd never vote for a conservative Democrat for the Senate, because even if my Senator is conservative, Patrick Leahy is not, and I don't want him to chair the Judiciary Committee. Even if my Senator is conservative, Joe Biden is not, and I don't want him to chair the Committee of Foreign Relations.
I don't care if a candidate for the Senate wants to cut spending in half... if he's going to vote to make Robert Byrd the chairman of Appropriations, he doesn't get my support.
| Senator | Party | 2004 | 2003 | LifeTime |
| Mike DeWINE | R | 68 | 85 | 82 |
| George VOINOVICH | R | 76 | 83 | 79 |
Both are pretty wimpy. If anything, DeWine has balked on some high-profile issues especially galling to lovers of personal freedom—e.g., supporting the Big Darby Wildlife land-grab at the behest of treehuggers.
Yes, and so we've been told over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and »smack!« uh, sorry...
My point is, we've had the majority now for 10+ years! Where has it gotten us...smaller government? ...more freedom?
What's important is who the Senate majority is, because that majority decides what's brought to a vote, and controls (and chairs) every single committee.
So far, with the gop in charge, I'm underwhelmed.
If neither of the major party candidates believes in constitutional government I'll vote for someone who does.
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