Rep. Ernest Istook Trails Gov. Brad Henry By Only 8 Points In Latest Poll

The Hill ^ | September 22, 2005

[Clintonfatigued]

Istook finished the strongest but would not win, according to the poll. In that race, Henry would beat Istook 44 to 36 percent.

[Clintonfatigued]

Istook has made a very good record in Congress, and has the potential to be the Mark Sanford of Oklahoma.

"A pig is a pig no matter who's pigpen it's in." Ernest Istook, 1992.

[Coop]

Istook finished the strongest but would not win, according to the poll.

I can't believe the Hill published this sentence without a smiley face somewhere around. Is it April 1st?

An incumbent manages a whopping 44%, and they're saying this poll shows Istook can't win. O-tay 'Panky!

[Clintonfatigued]

Good point. An incumbent polling only 44% is in trouble.

If Istook does run, word has it that Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin will succeed Istook in Congress.

[PhiKapMom]

My prediction is that Ernest will beat Henry. The Coburn grassroots people are anxious to oust Henry and are already offering to volunteer.

Ernest was there for Dr. Tom when he ran and you can take it to the bank that a lot of us on the Dr. Tom bandwagon will be there for Ernest. The so-called powers said that Dr. Tom would lose to the Dem Carson and he won big. If all of us in the grassroots get out working for Ernest like we did for Dr. Tom, then Henry who received 43% of the vote in 2002 will be history.

BTW, Ernest is the person who single handedly stopped Bill Clinton from getting the fancy office in NYC and Bill had to move to Harlem for his office. He was the Chair of the subcommittee that received the Clinton request for the big fancy offices and made sure it didn't happened.

Rumor is that our Lt Governor Mary Fallin will be in the race for the 5th District Congressional seat which would be AWESOME! She would be a great addition to the Congress.

Rumor has it that the announcement will be coming shortly! Was on a conference call about his decision several weeks ago and everyone was very positive about him running. The folks from SE Oklahoma were very excited to have another conservative running for Governor.

[PhiKapMom]

How about October 3rd and 4th for two announcements. Might as well add more to the rumor mill -- State Rep and Speaker of the House Todd Hiett for Lt Governor.

This gives us a strong ticket here in OK!

[AuH2ORepublican]

"An incumbent polling only 44% is in trouble."

---

As a general rule, yes. I don't think Brad Henry got more than 44% last time, but was able to win by a nose because a conservative third-party candidate ran very strongly, especially in rural areas. Ernest Istook would be a strong candidate, but we must recall that his potential Senate race was not viewed positively by many pundits in 2004, partly because, as a Mormon, he may be vulnerable in heavily Baptist rural areas.

I still think that former Senator Don Nickles would be our strongest candidate to beat Henry (especially since our other really strong candidate, former Congressman J.C. Watts, decided against running).


"If Istook does run, word has it that Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin will succeed Istook in Congress."

---

Is she a good conservative? We can certainly use more conservative women in Congress. In any event, the district is very Republican (although not nearly as Republican as before 2002 redistricting) and suburban Oklahomans are not about to elect a Democrat.

[PhiKapMom]

See my replies in #4 and #5. This may be a rumor from the Hill but will be a fact on 3 October and 4 October -- two announcements and two great candidates. Logo for Istook is awesome.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I hope you're right and Istook beats Henry and sweeps Hiett into office as well. I'm still recovering from J.C. Watts backing out of the gubernatorial race.

[maxter]

I'd like to see Joe Allbaugh run for Governor but doubt that will happen.

[Clintonfatigued]

"The folks from SE Oklahoma were very excited to have another conservative running for Governor.:

And non-Oklahoman Freepers are excited for you and cheering your cause on!

[PhiKapMom]

Mary Fallin is a rock ribbed conservative -- she would be an awesome addition to the Congress. She is not afraid to take on anyone to stand up for what she believes. Ask the RATs in the OK Senate! :)

Henry is beatable -- when the Tulsa World already has a phoney poll out for Henry, you know he is in trouble. He might have to start getting up earlier now with a real opponent instead of sleeping in until noon. No meetings are scheduled in the morning but he usually sleeps in and then is always late. Bill Clinton wannabe in more ways than one too!

[Clintonfatigued]

You make an interesting point about the religious angle. But heavily Baptist Oklahoma elected Dewey Bartlett (1972) and Don Nickles (1980, 1986, 1992, & 1998), who are Roman Catholic.

[Clump]

If they were right, Oklahoma would be represented by Brad Carson in the US senate.

[AuH2ORepublican]

As much as some ignorant Baptists may dislike Catholics, I think ignorant Baptists dislike Mormons a lot more. Mormons probably face more prejuidice than any other Christian denomination in America (actually, one of the bones of contention for Mormons is that many Christians do not consider Mormons to be Christians). If Istook runs, he will need a widescale voter education campaign so that conservative voters don't take any biases into the voting booth.

I think religious voters need to concentrate on the candidate's issue positions, not his religion. It's a shame, for example, that Kerry got over 40% of the Catholic vote in spite of his pro-abortion, anti-family views; I'm sure a lot of these votes came from Catholics who wanted to "vote for one of their own." I wish communities of faith did more to educate believers regarding how deeds are more important than religious labels.

BTW, I think Baptists for the most part are quite accepting of Catholics; I'm a Catholic, and have Baptists have never been anything but warm and cordial to me, and my (Catholic) aunt teaches at a Baptist university and lives in a predominantly Baptist community and has never had any trouble (except a few polite smiles when she asked at a get-together if they had any beer).

[PhiKapMom]

Ernest graduated from Baylor University -- that should help him with the Baptist.

[PhiKapMom]

Am so glad that we have someone like Ernest to get behind because when J.C. dropped out, I wasn't too happy with the people we had running. When I heard about Ernest getting in the race I felt a whole lot better.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Ernest graduated from Baylor University -- that should help him with the Baptist."

---

If I'm not mistaken, Istook converted to Mormonism relatively late in life. Perhaps he was a Baptist when he attended Baylor. Could he be more vulnerable to bias from certain sectors because he left the Baptist denomination to join the Mormon Church?

I'm not from Oklahoma, am not a Baptist, and would have no problem supporting a Mormon candidate if he's a good conservative such as Istook. But I recall some FReepers posting that some Oklahoma Republicans were concerned that if Istook ran for the Senate he could lose a portion of the rural Baptist vote because of his religion. My point is that if Istook's religion was deemed in 2004 to be potentially problematic among certain voters, Istook and his supporters need to work proactively to assure those voters that Istook shares their values.

While Brad Henry may be vulnerable in 2006, he will not be a pushover, especially in rural areas. We need to minimize as much as possible the number of Bush-voting conservatives that vote for Henry, and rural areas will be the number-one battlefield. Istook needs to be prepared to fight and fight hard.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Mary Fallin is a rock ribbed conservative -- she would be an awesome addition to the Congress."

---

That's great to hear. I hope they clear the primary field for her---OKC conservatives have plenty of other offices to run for, and a conservative woman who has been elected statewide is an ideal candidate for the House (and, eventually, the Senate).

[Clintonfatigued]

I also hope the primary field is cleared for her, as long as it's not done in a heavy-handed way.

GOP State Representative Kevin Calvey is also considering running if Istook leaves.