Don't believe the lies: Schwarzenegger's Propositions all winning

SurveyUSA ^ | 10/17/05 | Dangus

[dangus]

I keep reading that stories that support for the ballot propositions backed by California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is very weak. Even the Washington Times claims two are failing ("in the polls"), as if that finding represented a concensus of polls (Oct. 17, "For Arnold stakes are high"). I had thought I had seen them doing well, so I looked it up on the internet. The most recent poll I could find was done by Survey USA, released October 2nd. Its results:

Proposition 73: Physicials must notify a parent of a pregnant minor 48 hours before performing the abortion. Yes, 59%. No, 39%

Proposition 74: Delays probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to five years, making it easier to terminate teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. Yes, 55%. No, 44%

Proposition 75: Prohibits unions from spending money on political campaigns without the consent of their members. Yes, 60%. No, 37%

Proposition 76: Constrains spending growth to revenue growth. Yes, 58%. No, 36%

Proposition 77: Removes authority for designing congressional boundaries from state legislators. Instead, voters must approve plans drawn up by a panel of retired judges. Yes, 59%; No, 36%

Now, these results may be rather skewed to Republicans; I don't know. I do know that the poll's demographic sampling has a very balanced number of Republicans and Democrats (39% to 38%), and that the state votes considerably more heavily Democratic than that. On the other hand, many of the registered Republicans are "Clinton Republicans" who never came back to the Republican party, so maybe many Californians consider themsleves Republican even though they vote Democratic in national (presidential and congressional) elections.

But even if the sampling is horrendous, the results are strong enough to stand up; The propositions the Washington Times claims are losing are winning by 22 or 23%.

It's not uncommon for populist initiatives to fade a little down the stretch. Many polls show initial high approval ratings, which are bent downward by relentless, well-funded attacks by leftist groups such as unions, ethnic lobbies and other special interest groups. But the campaign is mature, and these initiatives are still leading... and it's just plain wrong to suggest that polls show otherwise.

Survey USA does report its results as registering a boost in support. The previous poll, which the Washington Times probably referred to, was by the Public Policy INstitute of California, for the Los Angeles Times. The LA Times predicted a Bustamente would easily win, just days before Bustamente was trounced by Schwarzenegger in the election. The LA Times poll showed Prop 75 winning with 58% of the vote, but 76 losing 28-61 and 77 losing 34-49. Perhaos tipping their bias, the LA Times did not report results of Prop 75 in their vote summation.

[calcowgirl]

And I learned this, too: Arnold Schwarzenegger is suing the Democratic Secretary of State Bill Lockyer for the titling of Proposition 76.

Schwarzenegger filed an initial complaint about the writing of the Ballot Title and Summary and it was subsequently rewritten (to the version that now appears on the ballot).Is this something new? (source?)

[dangus]

>> Is this something new? <<

Perhaps not. I'd've given more details if I had them.