Posted on 12/09/2005 12:31:41 PM PST by neverdem
Knight Ridder Newspapers
WASHINGTON — A severe bird-flu outbreak would cost the U.S. economy $625 billion — about 5 percent of the gross domestic product — as employers struggled with absenteeism, lost production and a sharp decline in consumer spending, a new government report has found.
The economic impact, driven in part by fear and confusion, would be equivalent to a recession, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. The estimates are based on a pandemic that would sicken 90 million people in the United States and kill about 2 million.
The findings are the government's first attempt at a detailed look at the cost of what could be the most devastating public-health threat in nearly a century. The analysis, while not definitive, provides a picture in dollars of why an influenza pandemic would present a health crisis and a threat to national security and the economy.
The CBO report estimates 30 percent of the U.S. population would become ill in a three-month outbreak, and about one-third of the U.S. work force would miss three weeks of work.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., who requested the report, told a National Press Club gathering Thursday the findings were "a grim prognosis" for a nation struggling to regain its economic footing.
Avian flu has been centered mainly in Southeast Asia but is moving westward through migratory birds. The disease is transmitted from animal to animal, mostly among birds. Humans are contracting the highly lethal disease after close contact with infected animals.
If the virus, known as H5N1, mutates into a form that passes easily from person to person, the world would be hit with a catastrophic pandemic because virtually no one would have immunity to the new virus.
To date, 133 people in five Asian countries have contracted the virus and 68 have died, according to the World Health Organization.
In testimony Thursday on Capitol Hill, Dr. Michael Osterholm told the House International Relations Committee a U.S. flu pandemic would affect the world. "The global economy will literally shut down," said Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "Health-care systems will be overwhelmed and, frankly, panic will reign."
The CBO report estimates that a mild outbreak would infect 75 million people, kill 100,000 and cost the economy $160 billion, about 1.5 percent of the gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services.
The Bush administration has asked Congress for $7.1 billion to prepare for a pandemic. Part of it would go to increase the U.S. stockpile of anti-viral drugs such as Tamiflu from 2.3 million full treatments to 81 million.
President Bush also wants $1.2 billion to purchase 20 million full treatments of an experimental H5N1 vaccine and $2.8 billion for research into a cell-based flu vaccine that would allow U.S. manufacturers to produce enough for the entire U.S. population within six months of a flu outbreak.
Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said the CBO report shows "it is time for Congress to act on the president's request so we can immediately begin to implement our plans to prevent and contain a pandemic."
Roche Pharmaceuticals, which manufactures Tamiflu, is in discussions with several drug companies to increase production of Tamiflu as demand increases worldwide, Roche spokesman Terry Hurley said.
You know, I really think those reporters should get their disorder looked at. I can't believe it's healthy to pull those kinds of numbers out of your BUTT.
"Bird flu could cost U.S. $625 billion"
Sky could also fall, costing the U.S. $900 quatrillion to replace.
It hasn't even happened yet and they are already talking about how much it could cost the U.S. in terms of money. This birdflu stuff has been blown out of proportion. It is just another thing to be afraid of and to take attention way from things that are actually happening.
It hasn't made the crossover from birds to humans, and until it does, all of this is hysteria.
If Scientists think that is going to make the cross-over, and I've heard various "experts" on TV say that it will, some time in the next 3-5 years, then it behooves us to get on the vaccine manufacture and drug trials, now!
68 deaths overseas! Time to start panicking and buying duck tape and chicken wire!
No way! Replacement cost can't be more than fortyleven trillion.
Stop all imports from China. As a matter of fact, move all production from China back to the US or to another country not in Asia.
That would be cheaper than the 635 Bil.
When I remember that exactly zero Americans died from SARS last year and 68 people world-wide have died from Avian Flu SINCE 2003, I see that this IS just media hype on top of a Chicken Little mentality.
How much is illiteracy in the media costing us?
"Stop all imports from China."
Better yet, kill all birds.
Problem solved.
Yea and some people make money hyping bio-threats. Let's see, vaccine r&d companies, vaccine production companies, MSM, government contractors (who will get contracts for the vaccine handling, distribution, production)...
We're DOOMED, I tell you! DOOOOOOOMED!
sheesh!
Like Dick Cheney?
The HYPE Continues!!!
Not to worry. Illegals are well-known for working until they drop, sick or well. As for consumer spending, well you can't spend what you don't have.
Huh ? You sure you're on the right site ?
The recession wont hurt thr funeral and casket business. Besides I think if we get a flu pandemic there are a whole lot of countries that will be in the same boat and with even less to bail with.
YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE! I've got some bad news. You're going to die. Someday. Probably not today. Tomorrow looks good, too.
Remember flesh-eating bacteria?
If, over the course of 19 months, only 68 people died in places where one must remember not to shake people's hands with the 'dirty' hand, because toilet paper and hand-washing haven't been introduced yet, I think we're going to be OK.
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