Iran can't test a nuke that soon.
Won't happen.
Posted on 01/22/2006 2:57:22 PM PST by strategofr
Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year, moves Shahab-3 missiles within striking range of Israel. Reporting this, the dissident Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a US-based watch group, cites sources in the US and Iran. The FDI adds from Iran: on June 16, the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force ordered Shahab-3 missile units to move mobile launchers every 24 hours instead of weekly. This is in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the US or Israel.
Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamad within striking distance of Israel, reserve launchers moved to Esfahan and Fars.
The missile units were told to change positions “in a radius of 30-35 kilometers” and only at night.
DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: FDI reporting has a reputation for credibility. Western and Israeli intelligence have known for more than six months that Iran’s nuclear program has reached the capability of being able to carry out a nuclear explosion, albeit underground. It would probably be staged in a desert or mountain region and activated by a distant control center. Tehran would aim at confronting the Americans, Europeans and Israelis with an irreversible situation.
At the same time, an explosion of this sort would indicate that Iran is not yet able to produce a nuclear bomb that can be delivered by airplane or a warhead adapted to a missile. The stage Iran has reached is comparable to Pakistan’s when it conducted its first nuclear tests in the nineties and North Korea’s in 2001. All the same, an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole.
The question now is: will the United States, Israel or both deliver a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Iranian underground test - or later? Or will Washington alternatively use the event to bring the UN Security Council round to economic sanctions? Tehran is already organizing to withstand economic penalties. For Israel, the timing is getting tight in view of its general election on March 28. Acting prime minister Ehud Olmert must take into account that a ruling party which allows an Iranian nuclear explosion to take place six days before the poll would draw painful punishment from the voter.
I would think they already have it!
DEBKA is not always reliable. What does STRATFOR say?
Whew. If DEBKA says it is, it probably isn't.
i read this is in UPI also.
Already posted as:
Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1562793/posts
with links to earlier non-Debka sources.
I believe the source for this story is the same : NCRI/MEK - a terrorist organization that wants to take over in Iran themselves. Though they have given us some good info in the past, (few yrs ago) their information recently on anything really substantial, has not been reliable.
UPI is only slightly more reliable than DEBKA, which ain't saying anything.
SURPRISE! Our stealth bombers just left your airspace...and left you with, as we say in the USA, your pants down.
I love pre-emptive strikes, don't you?
Israel probably has better intel than the US, on what's going on for real with Iran's nuclear program. For us it is an irritant -- ba large one, but still an irritant. For them, this is life or death. As with the Iraqi nuclear facility that they destroyed in 1981 (right year?), at some point Israel will have to act, regardless of what the US, UN, EU, or any one else is doing. But that time will not come before 20 March.
Congressman Billybob
Latest column: "On Judge Alito, the San Francisco Chronicle is Unfit to be a Newspaper"
Eye red it two.
It appears Ken Timmerman's group (The Foundation for Democracy) is also reporting this.
This seems to be DUMBKA yet again simply repackaging info already publicly reported as supposedly coming from their secret inside sources (which don't exist, as best I can tell.)
Aslong as this president remains "the president" I promise there wil be a preimptive strike.
That's possible, but if it's before March 20 of this year, I'll eat my hat.
And it's a pretty big hat.
Iran's nuke capability is either a few weeks or few years away, take your pick.
I believe that they could have acquired pre-fabbed, clandestinely built their own AND are working to produce more.
an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole.
Not really, it would instead INSURE a strike on Iran.
LOL now we're down to the day! But why the 20th, I'm shooting from the hip myself?
elections?
I dont look for this to happen. If Tehran does an underground test of a nuclear device it makes them outright liars, It states in no uncertain terms that they arent looking for Nuclear energy, but nuclear war. It would send a message to all that Iran has become to dangerous to be allowed to exist as it is now.
I believe an underground explosion of a nuclear test would force the rest of the world to take Iran by force .I think even France and Germany at that point would stop waving the white flags.
Iran can't test a nuke that soon.
Won't happen.
They already have them courtesy of Pakistan and/or North Korea.
Well, that's the supposed theory for the date.
Gravy is good on hats, I've had it.
Agreed!
I hope I don't find out firsthand.
"DEBKA is not always reliable."
ROFL!
Now that Debka says it, I can rest easy knowing it WONT happen.
Iran's first test of Nuclear Weapon will be a "live" test over Israel....
Iran knows they have one chance to take out the bulk of Israels response. The Muslim plan is that there are more Muslims than Jews, and we already know that they consider martyrdom for "the cause" to be acceptable ... even if it isnt voluntary.
Seems like we should drop a nuke on them on March 22 from about 40,000 feet and say "Holy Cow.... I can't believe they attempted an above ground detonation!"
Well I was wondering if there might be any truth to this rumor, and was suspicious it wasn't true ( the setting of a hard date that is ).
But then I saw it in Debka.............
;Eye red it two.
LOL. Were u edumakated in the publik skuls two ?
Is U.S. sponsored assassination still illegal?
It appears that the extremist Muslim plan is to nuke Israel. If I was Israeli, it would never happen.
"But why the 20th"
Iranian new year, apparently
"elections?"
Israeli
" Is U.S. sponsored assassination still illegal?"
no.
"Iran's first test of Nuclear Weapon will be a "live" test over Israel...."
not practical. expertise must first be developed.
"Iran can't test a nuke that soon.
Won't happen."
How do you know?
Did I miss something?
I'd say the potential for that is high...They have one shot and that's it...
The question is, will we allow them that one shot, even if we aren't 100% sure that's what they are up to...
Din't they never teach you to spel? Everbody knows it speled skools.
Because 64 Uranium gas centrifuges can't produce enough enriched Uranium in that amount of time.
To which, someone who knows little or nothing about nukes might ignorantly reply that Iran "otherwise" obtained a nuke...but if that was the case, Iran would have already tested it for one thing, and for another thing Iran wouldn't have publicly broken the UN monitoring seals on the 64 Uranium gas centrifuges...
...Because breaking those seals has brought about worldwide pressure against Iran, as well as hyper-alerted the Israelis...something that a real nuclear power in that region would have wanted to avoid prior to their first strike.
So that's how I know. It's physics (e.g. Uranium enrichment) and geostrategy (e.g. the element of surprise is gone once you publicly break those UN monitoring seals).
It's not even debatable.
Bookmark my posts. Bookmark this thread.
Iran will *not* test a nuke on or before March 22, 2006.
You can take that fact to the bank, and I will *ridicule* anyone on this thread who says otherwise...because I too am bookmarking this thread and I'll revisit it after March 22.
The main obstacle, while most of these ships are registered in third world countries, countries with little recourse to protecting said vessels, they are owned by European and American intrests, owners that would scream bloody hell in the halls of London and Washington. If we are serious, as we should be, actioned as described above should be allowed with no interference from Western powers...This could be a short term solution to what is shaping into a long term and costly problem...Oh, just thought of a possible problem for some people, the Iranians charter Western ships, Swedish, Canadian etc..But then, good luck Sweden and Canada tracking down the "Committee for a Free Iran."
Since it was made illegal by an executive order, I would think it only takes an executive order to make it NOT illegal. The question becomes: can it be done without public knowledge or Democratic oversight leaking it for political reasons.
Actually, that would be, "Iranian Committee for a Free Iran.."
Only problem is that the economic collapse in Iran would be rivaled by the economic collapse in the western world as half the oil is in Iran.
Revelations 6 3rd horsemen...
I'd have an easier time believing this if we had more than one source to go on and more details about the nature of the device - where did it come from? NK? Pakistan?
"North Korea’s in 2001
Did I miss something?"
An error, I think.
"something that a real nuclear power in that region would have wanted to avoid prior to their first strike."
Your whole post makes sense. But what are they trying to do? This is what I can't figure out.
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