Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year

DEBKAfile ^ | January 22, 2006, 9:30 AM (GMT+02:00)

[strategofr]

Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year, moves Shahab-3 missiles within striking range of Israel. Reporting this, the dissident Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a US-based watch group, cites sources in the US and Iran. The FDI adds from Iran: on June 16, the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force ordered Shahab-3 missile units to move mobile launchers every 24 hours instead of weekly. This is in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the US or Israel.

Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamad within striking distance of Israel, reserve launchers moved to Esfahan and Fars.

The missile units were told to change positions “in a radius of 30-35 kilometers” and only at night.

DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: FDI reporting has a reputation for credibility. Western and Israeli intelligence have known for more than six months that Iran’s nuclear program has reached the capability of being able to carry out a nuclear explosion, albeit underground. It would probably be staged in a desert or mountain region and activated by a distant control center. Tehran would aim at confronting the Americans, Europeans and Israelis with an irreversible situation.

At the same time, an explosion of this sort would indicate that Iran is not yet able to produce a nuclear bomb that can be delivered by airplane or a warhead adapted to a missile. The stage Iran has reached is comparable to Pakistan’s when it conducted its first nuclear tests in the nineties and North Korea’s in 2001. All the same, an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole.

The question now is: will the United States, Israel or both deliver a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Iranian underground test - or later? Or will Washington alternatively use the event to bring the UN Security Council round to economic sanctions? Tehran is already organizing to withstand economic penalties. For Israel, the timing is getting tight in view of its general election on March 28. Acting prime minister Ehud Olmert must take into account that a ruling party which allows an Iranian nuclear explosion to take place six days before the poll would draw painful punishment from the voter.

[Iscool]

Iran's first test of Nuclear Weapon will be a "live" test over Israel....

I'd say the potential for that is high...They have one shot and that's it...

The question is, will we allow them that one shot, even if we aren't 100% sure that's what they are up to...

[Flavius Josephus]

`skuls

Din't they never teach you to spel? Everbody knows it speled skools.

[Southack]

"How do you know?"

Because 64 Uranium gas centrifuges can't produce enough enriched Uranium in that amount of time.

To which, someone who knows little or nothing about nukes might ignorantly reply that Iran "otherwise" obtained a nuke...but if that was the case, Iran would have already tested it for one thing, and for another thing Iran wouldn't have publicly broken the UN monitoring seals on the 64 Uranium gas centrifuges...

...Because breaking those seals has brought about worldwide pressure against Iran, as well as hyper-alerted the Israelis...something that a real nuclear power in that region would have wanted to avoid prior to their first strike.

So that's how I know. It's physics (e.g. Uranium enrichment) and geostrategy (e.g. the element of surprise is gone once you publicly break those UN monitoring seals).

It's not even debatable.

Bookmark my posts. Bookmark this thread.

Iran will *not* test a nuke on or before March 22, 2006.

You can take that fact to the bank, and I will *ridicule* anyone on this thread who says otherwise...because I too am bookmarking this thread and I'll revisit it after March 22.

[ChEng]

Yada, yada, yada.....As I see it, the life blood of Iran is their oil exports, no oil exports, no money, no messin around. That said, suppose the next five tankers heading for Iran should suddenly sink. Said sinkings attributed to our new best friends, the "Committee For a Free Iran.." Right off, the insurers of targeted third world registered ships would drop coverage or quadruple rates. Ok, sink the next five, there goes coverage. So Iran flags their own ships..our "friends" sink em...What is Iran to do? Can their "navy" protect these vessels, not only in the straits but elsewhere, don't think so. Call on their allies to help out, don't think so. Go to the UN, now that's an idea...

The main obstacle, while most of these ships are registered in third world countries, countries with little recourse to protecting said vessels, they are owned by European and American intrests, owners that would scream bloody hell in the halls of London and Washington. If we are serious, as we should be, actioned as described above should be allowed with no interference from Western powers...This could be a short term solution to what is shaping into a long term and costly problem...Oh, just thought of a possible problem for some people, the Iranians charter Western ships, Swedish, Canadian etc..But then, good luck Sweden and Canada tracking down the "Committee for a Free Iran."

[Optimist]

Is U.S. sponsored assassination still illegal?

Since it was made illegal by an executive order, I would think it only takes an executive order to make it NOT illegal. The question becomes: can it be done without public knowledge or Democratic oversight leaking it for political reasons.

[ChEng]

Actually, that would be, "Iranian Committee for a Free Iran.."

[American in Israel]

Only problem is that the economic collapse in Iran would be rivaled by the economic collapse in the western world as half the oil is in Iran.

Revelations 6 3rd horsemen...

[fragrant abuse]

I'd have an easier time believing this if we had more than one source to go on and more details about the nature of the device - where did it come from? NK? Pakistan?

[strategofr]

"North Korea’s in 2001

Did I miss something?"

An error, I think.

[strategofr]

"something that a real nuclear power in that region would have wanted to avoid prior to their first strike."

Your whole post makes sense. But what are they trying to do? This is what I can't figure out.

[strategofr]

"That said, suppose the next five tankers heading for Iran should suddenly sink."

One good potential strategy.

[Semper Paratus]

Iran will *not* test a nuke on or before March 22, 2006.

If Iran got a nuke somewhere else, it wouldn't need a test. It wouldn't test it's own prototype until they had made at least several along with the means of delivery knowing a 'test' would probably trigger a strike they could then retaliate against.

[strategofr]

"half the oil is in Iran. "

wrong:

Persian Gulf countries maintained about 22.9 million bbl/d of oil production capacity, or 32% of the world total. Iran had estimated net exports of about 2.6 million bbl/d (15%of the Persian Gulf output),

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/pgulf.html

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Now, now. There's no evidence that Iran has WMD. /Democrat sarcasm

[Southack]

"Your whole post makes sense. But what are they trying to do? This is what I can't figure out."

Iran is playing the rodeo clown. If you've been to a rodeo, you've no doubt seen the clown distract the angry bull away from the downed rider.

Well, the "downed rider" in the Middle East is Hezbollah (because Syria recently withdrew its Army from Lebanon that was protecting Hezbollah from a U.S./Beirut/Israeli ground war).

Right now Iran is bluffing; saying anything provocative. The effect is to tell the bull to "look at me over here!" instead of looking at Hezbollah.

And Hezbollah is in a world of trouble because the last prisoner exchange with Germany (German hostage held in Iraq for a PFLP terrorist in Germany) exposed the extent of involvement of Hezbollah in Iraq...and under President Bush, that's a very bad thing for Hezbollah...because GWB isn't afraid to use our military to end such shenanigans.

Also keep in mind that Hezbollah is funded by Iran to be Iran's proxy. Hezbollah in near-autonomous Southern Lebanon can do things that would otherwise start an open shooting war if Iran directly did it instead.

And Iran does not want to lose Hezbollah...hence, the Persian Rodeo Clown dance is now on the radio.

[strategofr]

"Iran is playing the rodeo clown. If you've been to a rodeo, you've no doubt seen the clown distract the angry bull away from the downed rider."

Interesting theory. Predicated on the clown's confidence the bull won't catch him. I'm not so sure...but I will admit your theory matches the *tone* of Iran's recent actions.

[American in Israel]

reserves, and with one third of the worlds exports they need nuclear power plants like an Alaskan needs a refrigerator.

[Southack]

Just a bump to remind people that stories of Iranian nuclear tests this month will turn out to be all hat, no cattle.

[strategofr]

"Iran is playing the rodeo clown. If you've been to a rodeo, you've no doubt seen the clown distract the angry bull away from the downed rider."

The rodeo clown analogy is a good one, but I have a feeling what they are trying to distract us from is Iraq. I will admit though, I can't quite finish the analysis.

[Southack]

It's March 20th!

The deadline has passed.

Gee, no Iranian nuclear test...precisely as Southack said from Day One...exactly the opposite of what was claimed by Debka and a few posters here and there.

Who woulda thunk it...