Posted on 02/14/2006 5:00:06 AM PST by Judith Anne
THE ARRIVAL OF avian flu in Africa means that the bird epidemic is officially out of control. None of the methods used against it so far -- mass vaccination of poultry flocks in China, mass bird slaughter across Southeast Asia -- has prevented wild birds from spreading the H5N1 virus across the globe, to Italy, Greece, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan, as well as Siberia and Indonesia. The flu has probably been killing birds in Africa for many months and will probably not be stopped: In poor countries with weak or nonexistent veterinary controls, where chickens are the only source of protein and no compensation for farmers for loss of their livestock is likely, it will be impossible to enforce either mass vaccinations or mass slaughter
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Cook your chicken thoroughly
Influenza and in particular avian influenza is endemic in all countries where migrating fowl can be found. This is the case every year. It is a natural mechanism and an inevitable outcome that a highly pathogenic variant emerges, it is as inevitable as complex organisms emerging from simple proteins lets put it that way. EVOLUTION is not static it is not occurring at the centennial, millennial, aeon level or greater, but rather it happens second by second by second....
Sobering thought yes?
Here is a recent estimate of 140mil deaths in a worse case scnario: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/SP273916.htm
That is only around 2% of the total population, which I think is on par for what happened in the 1918 pandemic.
With the waves that occurred in the 1918 one, don't you think we ought to be prepared for more of a 6mos supply period. In the book on 1918, governments at all levels failed. If the virus were h2h, I would imagine schools, banks, and businesses would shut down. Without stores open, people would panic over food, just like they do for gas when gas prices are shooting up or supply is threatened. In 1918 in Philadelphia for example, it came through in waves spearated by around a month each time. I'm just wondering outloud, especially considering the rampant spread now going through Europe, that perhaps we should prepare for a longer period of time? Anyone have thoughts on this?
Bird flu in Niger now: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/e07dd9905a038e9c7a3a0d39ab8114c7.htm
index bump
"I would imagine schools, banks, and businesses would shut down".
Yeah, but the mortician industry will be in full bloom...
Funeral directors' plan for bird flu
The Funeral Directors Association has ruled out the need for mass burials in the event of a bird flu pandemic, but says funeral services would not be held and cremations would be rare.
The associations' pandemic committee chairman Simon Manning says the industry's plans for any pandemic allow for all victims to be buried with dignity, in individual marked graves.
Manning says if coffins ran out, heavy polythene bodybags would be used. He says funeral services would not be held because gatherings would be banned, and there would not be many cremations.
Manning says bodies would be buried within 48 hours of death and people would be buried in the district in which they died.
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/425826/647862
Semper Curious
Yeah, or post-Ramadan.
I fully realize where my own URL is from.
Will that do it?
Here is a current events thread on the subject.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=38673
Seems like a lot of unsure disagreement over there.
I'm all for the powdered eggs suggestion myself. My main prep stocks are dehydrated foods.
Mine does!
Using the 1918 pandemic as an analogue rather than a baseline for analysis is risky and problematic, for many reasons. Modern travel is far more prolific in the 21st century compared with 1918. The immune landscape is far different, with immunization now taking place within high risk groups AND the general populace. Herd immunity and cross immunity statistics will be far more significant and germane. Emergency protocol within healthcare and local and federal government is far more sophisticated, FEMA and CDC responses should have some mitigating effect on mortality. There is no world conflict (WW I) that will contribute towards shortened resources such as food and medical supplies for the populations, or a contributing strain on medical and hospital resources. Greater cooperation between nations has already provided proactive measures to be put in place and planned.
"With the waves that occurred in the 1918 one"
Hmm sorry I am not familiar with what you would call "waves" are you referring to migration and infection clusters? The only wave that would be germane here is the herald wave. please advise on your use of this term.:-)
If this helps a pandemic period can last 6 months to 2 years so far as recorded data allows comparisons.
Will that do it?
If you want to avoid contamination via mechanical rather than biological transfer.
the cooking eggs for 2 hours statement is nonsense, the user Shannon is correct all virus including airborne virus with UV resistance are fragile, they need a biological host environment to exist unless they are weaponized. Check with the CDC website for cooking precautions
Hi, the waves I'm referring to were the ones mentioned in the book on the 1918 pandemic. Accordingly, when the virus would hit an area, it would peak, and then, in time, seem to be gone, but then reappear. The disappearance and reappearance were called waves by the author.
"Emergency protocol within healthcare and local and federal government is far more sophisticated, FEMA and CDC responses should have some mitigating effect on mortality."
Yes, I thought of that. But, I also consider that we, especially in the US, are more dependent on our luxuries (i.e. electricity, store, etc) than the people who lived in 1918. I think people were more self sufficient then, probably had stores of food in reserve as a routine, and could handle tough conditions better than people now can. I remember in the snowstorm of 1996 on the east coast when the store was out of bread for a week and most people didn't even know how to make their own. Yes, our technology is better, but so is our over reliance on it.
"There is no world conflict (WW I) that will contribute towards shortened resources such as food and medical supplies for the populations, or a contributing strain on medical and hospital resources. "
True, but again, I think people were better preapred for harsh conditions then. Also, my wife is a RN. The hospital where she works, which is a large urban one, only has enough Tamiflu for 200 people. That's obviously insufficient for bad scenarios. Also, honestly, from the character of people I see today, I see people not showing up for work and trying to help others, while only thinking of themselves. Granted that happened in 1918 too but there were many volunteers that helped then and I don't know if today, we as a country, would be so willing to help at the risk of our own peril.
As for my earlier posts of the decrease of mortality in order for the flu to spread more efficiently h2h, here is a quote: "Epedemiologists have been predicting for some time that as H5N1 gets better at transmitting between humans it would become less lethal, and this appears to be exactly what we are seeing." http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2006/01/recombinomics_o.html
This is an example of the statements I have read that led me to say that.
I can't stand to eat powdered eggs. I'll just quit eating eggs. LOL
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