HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RodFromGa | May 28, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

HOW TO ELECT A CONSERVATIVE SENATE

RINOS, and LIBERALS, and BEARS, OH MY!
by RobFromGa

If you look at each state and how it voted in the 2004 election cycle, you can assign a Red, Purple, or Blue category to it. I used anything greater than 52% Bush as Red, 48-52% Bush

was Purple, and anything under 48% as a Blue State.

Then in looking at 2005 and Lifetime ACU ratings (how conservative their voting patterns have been), I assigned the Senators in order from most conservative to least conservative, and

going off of current knowledge of recent voting patterns, I then identified the RINOs:

Liberal RINOs (least conservative first): Chafee, Snowe, Collins
Moderate RINOs (least conservative first): DeWine,Smith(OR),Specter,Coleman,Voinovich,Gregg,McCain*,Graham*,Hagel*

Note: It is very hard to call McCain, Graham and Hagel RINOs from looking at their long-term voting patterns, but for the purposes of this analysis I call them RINOs mainly because that

are bucking the GOP Senate leacership and acting like they are in charge instead of Frist. It is likely that 2008 Presidential politics are playing a big role in their behaviour.

Looking at the state breakdowns:

RED (Conservative) State Opportunities:

There are 25 Red States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

15 Red States with 2 Conservative Senators: AL,AK,GA,ID,KS,KY,MS,MO,NC,OK,TN,TX,UT,VA,WY
2 Red States with a Conservative and a RINO: AZ, SC
4 Red States that are splitting their vote with one Conservative and one Liberal: IN,LA,MT,SD
1 Red State with a RINO and a Liberal: NE
Remarkably, there are 3 Red states with 2 Liberal Senators: AR,ND,WV

Red State Analysis:
There is a potential for +8 Conservative Senators in just those last 4 states (AR,ND,WV,and NE) and if we got two of four "split" states to throw out their liberal and elect two

Conservatives, we are at +10.

Purple (Moderate) State Opportunities:

There are 12 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

0 Purple States with two Conservative Senators
2 Purple States with a Conservative and a RINO: PA,NH
5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM
1 Purple State with 2 RINOs: OH
2 Purple States with a Liberal and a RINO: MN,OR
2 Purple States with two Liberals: MI, WI

Purple State Analysis:
Our best chances to improve in the Purple states is to get rid of the Liberals. There are potentially 11 Liberals who could get run out of office in these states, but in order for a

Conservative to win, we need great candidates. In some cases we will probably have to settle for a Moderate in some of these Purple states. It is also likely that these states will be

trending as either more Blue or Red over time.

Blue (Liberal) State Opportunities:

There are 13 Purple States as of 2004 election. At present, there are:

1 Blue State with 2 RINOs: ME
1 Blue State with a Liberal and a RINO: RI
11 Blue States with 2 Liberal Senators: CA,CT,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,NJ,NY,VT,WA

Blue State Analysis: Our three most liberal RINOs are all from these blue states, and the chances of electing a true Conservative are slim to none at present. If we want more RINOs, then we could potentially

swap RINOs for liberals in some races. This will tend to be the celebrity or otherwise well-known, well-funded candidate (ala Arnold) or if there is some other local issue (like scandal).

We should not spend too much time and effort on the Blue States, when there is so much potential to improve still in the Red and Purple States.

OVERALL ANALYSIS: If we get 2 Conservatives from each Red State, and at least one Conservative from each Purple state, we are at 62 true Conservative Senators, enough to do what needs to be done to enact Conservative legislation.

HOW DO WE GET THERE FROM HERE?

In the 2006 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Byrd(WV), Conrad(ND), Nelson(NE)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Stabenow(MI), Bingaman(NM), Kohl(WI), Open(MN), Nelson(FL)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: none
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: DeWine(OH)

HOLD SITUTATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Ensign(NV), Santorum(PA)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Chafee(RI), Snowe (MI)

In the 2008 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Rockefeller(WV), Johnson(SD), Baucus(MT), Pryor(AR),Landrieu(LA),
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Harkin(IA), Levin(MI)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: Graham*(SC), Hagel*(NE),
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Coleman(MN), Smith(OR)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Sununu(NH),Domenici(NM),Allard(CO)

HOLD OR ABANDON?:
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: Collins(ME)

In the 2010 election cycle, we have

TAKEOVER OPPORTUNITIES:
DEMOCRATS IN RED STATES: Lincoln(AR), Dorgan(ND), Bayh(IN)
DEMOCRATS IN PURPLE STATES: Wyden(OR), Reid(NV), Feingold(WI), Salazar(CO)

UPGRADE OPPORTUNITIES:
RINOS IN RED STATES: McCain*(AZ)
RINOS IN PURPLE STATES: Specter(PA), Voinovich*(OH), Gregg(NH)

HOLD SITUATIONS:
CONSERVATIVES IN PURPLE STATES: Grassley(IA), Martinez(FL)

HOLD OR ABANDON?
RINOS IN BLUE STATES: none

We need strong candidates and a good grass-roots effort in each of these races where we have an opportunity for a TAKEOVER or an upgrade. Soliciting Freeper comments as to who is

respected enough in each of these states to make this happen.

What conservative candidates have experience in statewide elections in these states, and what will it take to get them to run?

It is too late to do much yet in 2006 but there are HUGE opportunities in 2008 and 2010 that we need to be planning for now...

Soliciting Freeper input.

RobFromGa

[Congressman Billybob]

Damned fine analysis. Thank you for taking the time to break this down for the folks on FreeRepublic.

P.S. My primary is over, but because of certain legal and ethical problems, the incumbent, Charles Taylor may withdraw/be forced out, and I am in the running to be chosen as the replacement nominee for Congress in the 11th District of NC. For more information, see the article below, and my website. I still need your help.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article: "Ray Nagin -- 'Good and Hard' "

[Phocion]

Many of the Democratic senators in the red states are either "conservative" Democrats, or among the most popular senators in the country. People Nelson, Byrd, Bayh, or the North Dakota senators would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to topple.

[KentuckyWoman]

Better change Tennessee to one Conservative senator and one RINO. Bill Frist is NOT a conservative and just spearheaded legalizing the tidal-wave of illegals from south of our border. Of course, he has his eyes set on the White House but, as someone from his home state, I can guarantee that he'll follow in Al Gore's footsteps by NOT winning that home state should actually get the Republican nomination and he KNOWS it.

[babygene]

What do you do about someone like Craig from Idaho, who supports mostly conservative causes (he has to if he wants to get elected in Idaho), but when it comes to an important issue like amnesty for illegals he votes for it.


In my book, he votes to serve his own interests and is a RINO.

[mmercier]

if not impossible, to topple.

Your post was accurate, but I do so hope to one day see Byrd topple over in the Senate, live on CSPAN.

[derSchurfer]

You might as well put Warner in the RINO category too. I would only count on Allen from Virginia to vote Conservative. Warner went with the DemocRATS on every vote for S. 2611 (AMNESTY Bill).

[Joe Brower]

"5 Purple States with a Conservative and a Liberal: CO,FL,IA,NV,NM "

I have to offer this correction to FL: Martinez is a RINO. He is no conservative.

I say this as one who worked heavily for his campaign in 2004. I will not be supporting or voting for him again.

[TSchmereL]

Here is my analysis, copied from another thread:
As ironic as it may be, assuming the House holds firm on its tougher, close-the-border-first immigration bill, the Republicans might just lose the Senate but retain control of the House!
This is the exact opposite of what most Democrat pundits have been predicting might happen. They have mostly written off the Senate, but somehow see opportunities in the House.
It is not an outcome I want to see, but considering public opinion regarding the "Amnesty Bill," and other factors, it is actually more likely that the Republicans could lose the Senate but not the House in 2006.
(I actually don't think the Republicans will lose either chamber of Congress, as I explained using a study by Jay Cost here. If you can't switch the Senate, you can forget about switching the House.)
The result of such an outcome would be a vitriolic Democrat majority in the Senate that is unable to provide its base with the much hoped for impeachment proceedings against the President because such proceedings must begin in the House.
Then, after the Democrat Majority in the Senate has had about two years to make a holy, ass-clown show of itself, and the Democrats inevitably nominate the fatally flawed Hillary Clinton to run in 2008, we might have a real Conservative Republican Presidential candidate with popular coat tails broad enough to replace the RINO majority in the Senate with real Conservative Senators.

[B.O. Plenty]

Bump for after Church

[Talking_Mouse]

I like your analysis, however we have a chance in 2006 to move MD from two Liberals to 1 Liberal and a Moderate RINO (to possible Conservative) with Lt. Gov. Steele becoming Sen. Steele.

Having lived in MD I see this as a thing to be greatly desired.

[mafree]

Very good analysis and breakdown. One reason why liberals and RINOS stay in place in some red and purple states is because they bring home the pork. What true conservative voters in those states have to ask themselves is this: is the pork worth keeping RINOs and libs in office?

[DuncanWaring]

People Nelson, Byrd, Bayh, or the North Dakota senators would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to topple.

Kind of like this guy?

[EDINVA]

slight correction: VA doesn't have 2 conservative Senators; we have Allen (Conservative) and Warner (RINO)

[Hardastarboard]

See, here's your problem my FRiend. We can't be just throwing these people out of office. They are much more important to this country than just our petty little concerns. They are the elite, our rulers. The elections are a mere formality at this point, and as soon as they can politely do away with them, they certainly will. Then the ignorant peasants will stop bothering them, and they can go about doing the people's business. Don't you understand that?

[TSchmereL]

Senator McCain? Please call your office.

[KoRn]

Outstanding take on things! If you aren't already, you should do things like that for a living.

What has always made things difficult are 'conservative' Democrats winning in 'red states'. Even if the democrats may be conservative on social issues, they still go to DC and elect people like Pelosi and Reid to leadership positions, and continue to support the socialist oriented wealth redistribution scheme.

[Gorobei]

That doesn't even fit at all. Daschle's razor-thin win vs Thune the first time around was just a delay of the inevitable, everyone knew his time was up when they met again. People like Byrd are intrenched and supported by decades of greased pockets. It is unfortunate, but we'll have to wait and pray for the geezer's tikcer to expire before grabbing that seat.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Better change Tennessee to one Conservative senator and one RINO. Bill Frist is NOT a conservative"

Then you'd better change to 2 RINOs. Lamar! is no Conservative and did NOT have the grassroots support.

[traviskicks]

check this out