Looks headed down. Hopefully will be down significantly before November.
Posted on 06/29/2006 1:54:58 AM PDT by tlb
Just how perilously close are Republicans to losing their congressional majority in 2006? The way several independent observers and Democrats are talking and acting these days, you might guess the GOP's demise was all but a done deal.
But a little more than four months out from the election, the Crystal Ball is not yet ready to view the GOP majority as a flimsy house of cards, nor in our estimation should Murtha fast-forward to helping Pelosi hand out committee gavels to the ranking members of his caucus. The Republican margin in the House of Representatives may be more tenuous this year than it has been in any election cycle since its inception in 1994, but a larger wave than currently exists must build in order to completely erode the GOP's 15-seat edge, and by no means has the party in power already been swept out to sea.
At least for now, the race-by-race rather than national dynamic of competitive congressional races points to a "micro-wave" rather than a "macro-wave" for Democrats, and the current heat level places the Crystal Ball's best House estimate in the area of a 6-8 seat Democratic gain.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
I respect Sabato a lot, so I'm quite happy to read this. In addition, my gut feeling is that the Democrats peaked a month ago, so if we're lucky they might only end up +4 or +5.
prisoner6
Now I am worried. Sabato's motto should be, "Often wrong, but never in doubt."
Texas might have helped...
Looks headed down. Hopefully will be down significantly before November.
The election will be a wash; my uneducated guess is 2 seats either way, so that the Pubbies may emerge with a larger majority than now, but definitely won't lose the majority. And any majority will be a victory for the administration.
I think there is a real possibility of the Democrats losing more seats, not gaining, losing !
The Dems are acting like fugitives from a loony bin: Howard Dean is the main example .
Other Dems are seen as Benedict Arnolds like, Murtha and Kerry . .
This November, Republicans who are seen as engaged with the public, will win re-election, and new candidates that act independent of the WH, will carry the torch of victory !
Which GOP, though? The Pubbies or the RINOs?
Sabato's calls in the 2004 election were miserable. I remember at the time there were calls for him to hand in his crystal ball.
The Republicans will pick up 1 maybe 2 seats in GA.
Mike Barone is the only one I pay attention to.
RINO's will win in the NE as you realize. Perhaps Linc Chaffee will lose in RI. That will be a great loss for us. In the positive vein I mean!!! LOL
"Posted because several months ago I projected an 8 seat net gain for democrats. Now the experts begin to agree. It must be a relief for the House Leadership that they pass the Wasserman test."
Good for you pal but you're dead wrong. We pick up 3, 4 or 5 seats. On last Labor Day I posted an essay outlining 26 reasons why the rat will not only lose seats, but we will gain seats. I was wrong. I have now revised that list to 46 reasons and I'm thinking of adding today's USSC decision as number 47. Just this week alone I've welcomed 4 "experts" who now understand the rat is playing a losing hand. I now officially welcome you as well. By the way my list's number 28 names 6 rats that will lose their seats. I name names. You almost NEVER get names and specific seats from "experts", now do you?
How is this election cycle any different than 2004 or 2002?
Stage 1: six to ten months out, there are all these bold predictions that the Democrats will take control of the House. Stage 2: two to six months out, the stories begin to moderate as more modest predictions of Democrat gains begin filtering out. Stage 3: close to the election, most prognosticators begin to predict no change or a slight Republican gain. Sabato's article is just the beginning of the second stage.
2006 will be no different. Unless there is some massive, unforeseen event, I'm predicting no change in control of the House with the margin remaining in double digits.
Link please?
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