House GOP senses shift in political winds

House Republicans say they are growing more optimistic about their chances this November after a politically disastrous stretch and repeated fumbles that fomented discord within the party.

The newfound optimism is grounded in what Republicans say is a shift in the political winds — and their fundraising prowess.

In preparation for midterm elections, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) has been tapped to helm the Battleground program, the GOP’s final fundraising push of the 2006 election cycle.

Cantor, the chief deputy to Majority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), is tasked with raising $17.5 million, the GOP’s target for the program.

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.) named Cantor as chairman for the final fundraising drive during yesterday’s regular weekly House GOP meeting.

The official launch of the Battleground program coincides with an improving mood within the Republican Conference, which some leaders have taken as a sign that the GOP will fare well this fall.

“We have to raise money to sustain and to win,” House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) told a group of reporters after the conference meeting. “People are anteing up, and we’re looking forward to increasing our majority next year.”

This is the first time in recent history that a senior Republican lawmaker has even discussed the possibility of increasing the GOP majority in the House this election cycle. Many Republicans have said they would be extremely pleased if they retain control of the lower chamber.

Congressional Democrats are quick to point out that they have outraised their GOP counterparts and believe that any optimism Republicans are expressing is unfounded.

During the House Republicans’ meeting, Reynolds implored members to raise money for their colleagues and said the Battleground program is crucial in helping Republicans retain their majority. He applauded Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) in particular for working so hard to hold a competitive district.

Cantor will be assisted in his fundraising efforts by seven deputies: Reps. Patrick McHenry (N.C.), Adam Putnam (Fla.), John Shimkus (Ill.), Todd Tiahrt (Kan.), Cathy McMorris (Wash.), John Mica (Fla.) and Lamar Smith (Texas).

Members have varying targets based on their seniority in the conference, from the lowest level of $70,000 to the top level for leaders and A-level committee chairmen of $550,000, said Carl Forti, the communications director for the NRCC.

The money goes directly to the NRCC, GOP aides said, and members can either write checks directly from their own campaigns accounts or ask individual donors and political action committees to write checks to the campaign committee in their name.

Hastert, Blunt and Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) offered Cantor checks worth $150,000, $500,000 and $550,000, respectively, during yesterday’s conference meeting to get the fundraising drive off to a good start.

Although the final fundraising deadline for the Battleground program is set for Oct. 11, Cantor warned members yesterday not to get into “a deadline mentality” and encouraged them to contribute as early as possible so that the NRCC will have more freedom to spread the money around.

Republicans in the House launched their Battleground effort in the wake of news events that have been favorable to the GOP.

The California special congressional election last month was a tremendous relief for Republicans in the House, even though many had dismissed its significance on the eve of that election. It came the same week that insurgent leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed in Iraq and coincided with an extension of tax cuts on dividends and capital gains.

This week, Republicans crowed about new figures showing that the budget deficit is smaller than had been anticipated.

While Republican leaders have had a hard time corralling their members on a number of votes this year, leaders and rank-and-file members have said passing the budget resolution through the House was the biggest hurdle and significantly eased the way for all of the spending bills, allowing members to complete their most basic duty on Capitol Hill.

“Look, it’s a competitive environment for Republicans,” Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) said earlier this week. But the former NRCC chairman said recent news was finally starting to give Republicans a boost.

“Katrina put us in the basement, and we stayed there,” Rep. Tom Feeney said, but the Florida Republican said momentum had turned back in their favor.

Regardless of how Republicans feel now, a Democratic campaign spokesman said it was a long way between now and November, and he welcomed the GOP exuberance.

“I hope they think they have the momentum up until Election Day,” said Bill Burton, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The fact of the matter is that they have not spent a lot of time at all in this Congress focused on issues that people care about.”

For example, Burton said, Republicans have made a major issue out of immigration this campaign season, even though Congress has not yet approved a reform bill.

“They’re waging a single-issue campaign on an issue they don’t have any accomplishments on,” Burton said.

Burton also said it is one thing to feel relief and express a sense of momentum in Washington but it is another to show momentum in each of the competitive districts.

“If they’re so confident, let’s see what their polling says,” Burton said.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a former House member, agreed that Republicans are in trouble. He recently told columnist Robert Novak that GOP leaders are misreading the pulse of voters and could lose both chambers of Congress this year.

Recent news has not all been good for House Republicans. They did get a boost in Texas last month when the Supreme Court upheld all but one of the seats in its review of that state’s congressional map. But to the delight of Democrats, a Texas judge ruled that former Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) must remain on the ballot. The ruling, which has been appealed, could help Democrats win DeLay’s seat in November.

In addition, a divide on spending issues continues within the party, simmering since internal fights on the lobbying reform bill, the budget and a series of appropriations bills.

That debate has made its way to the primary battlefield, where conservative candidates are repeatedly squaring off against centrist Republicans. In many of those fights, the conservative Club for Growth has become increasingly hostile toward some centrist Republican candidates, roiling some senior GOP lawmakers.

“Club for Growth clearly could care less about the Republican Party,” Davis said.

Well it's about time. I've never felt that the GOP was going to lose the House or Senate. I argued here months ago when I first came on that all the doom and gloom was unfounded. I'm glad the House Pubs are catching up with reality. Now if they will act like strong Conservatives and speak out that will put a fork in the Democrats November hopes. This is long below but it illustrates clearly they didn't have any hopes in the first place. It was liberal enthusiasm absent of facts and reality.

It comes down simply to the fact that the Democrats have no single major issue they can hammer, because all the major issues the Democrats have, their positions on those issues are the OPPOSITE of MOST Americans.

1: The war. They want to run and fight in the courts. Given how Muslims are in France, and Indonesia, and India, and Israel, there's no reason to think leaving Iraq will help the war.

2: Border control and Immigration. They want to do NOTHING because illegals are a voting block for them. Most Americans want REAL border control and immigration reform.

3: Roll back Bush tax cuts. Raise them on the "richest" Americans. It would be a tax increase across the board like always. Anyone ever get a job from a poor man? The economy is booming and the deficit is being paid half down a year earlier because of those supposed "tax cuts for the rich".

4: Judges. Democrats want activist judges like Stevens and Ginsburg, most Americans want conservative Constructionist Judges like Scalia and Thomas, so the Democrats can't talk about Judges, and when they do, all they talk about is that Pro-Life Judges aren't qualified. Most Americans don't want any of that either. The Democrats also can't tough on this, because they know that because of the horrible rulings out of liberal courts, removing all Christian reference from public view, denying free speech for Christians, taking land from people without legal basis, denying the States the right to execute murderers who the people of those States see fit to execute, etc, and they know that most Americans are sick of that, and know that it's liberal Judges that have done these things so the Democrats can't run on Judges

5: Economy. Every so often libs like Pelosi and Reiche will say how bad the economy is. But with 4.6% unemployment, six figure job increases ever month, GDP and new home sales higher every time the new numbers come out, the Stock Market always near the pre-9-11 range or higher, and the deficit now being paid down by half a year earlier than expected, there's no evidence of anything less than a strong economy.

6: Gas prices. They talk about it, but won't debate it, because most Americans know that the price of gas would be FAR lower if we drilled in ANWAR, did shoal oil, which is economical above $40 per barrel, drilled off shore, built more oil refineries, and quit forcing oil companies to make over 100 different blends of unleaded and diesel gas. And Democrats are the ones who oppose ALL of that. Ignoring the fact that we don't control OPEC and THEY set the price for most of the gas we buy, not the oil companies, which make a profit of a nickel per gallon. Compared to State and Federal taxes of 40 to 50 cents per gallon.

7: Gay Marriage. 80% or more of Americans are against gay marriage, and only 15% of gays themselves want gay marriage. MOST gays just want to be left alone. So Democrats can't fight that as an issue either. Illustrated by the 15+ States that have passed gay marriage bans, some in blue states, and only two have failed, and five more are pending that will likely all pass.

8: Partial Birth Abortion. Democrats want it but they won't run on it because most Americans, 95% or more are against it. So they never talk about that.

9: Embryonic stem cell research. There is a mountain of scientific proof that embryonic stem cells show NO promise to cure anything, and haven't cured anything, though adult and umbilical stem cells DO cure things, and have been proven to be effected in trials, but Democrats only want to talk about embryonic stem cells because that props up their defense of abortion. That's the only reason any libs care about stem cell research is to defend the notion that embryos are just tissue and not human life.

10: Global Warming. And the Democrats clearly don't think Global Warming is a winner or they'd be hammering it already as an election issue. With the failure of algore's movie, and other GW failures, they know most Americans just aren't biting on Global Warming scare mongering.

So there you go. The ten most major issues and the Democrats are solidly on the losing side of all these issues and so that leaves them very little but shadows and card tricks to run on. How anyone ever expected that the Democrats were going to win in November is beyond me. NO party has ever won an election when they have no major issues on their side compared to the American people. All the Democrats have is, Iraq is Vietnam and we have to get out (with no evidence to support it), the economy is bad (even though American voters see the opposite with their own eyes), and raising taxes (despite all the visible benefits that any half intelligent voter can see). They flat can't run on anything else in any competitive districts or States. And that's not even pointing out how much the "Republican culture of corruption" has bitten the Democrats in the butt considering that many times more Democrats have been proven to be corrupt and guilty of crimes, and the DeLay fiasco has only resulted in one indictment which has no chance of becoming a conviction. Oh, and they hate Bush. And that helped them oh so much in 2004, and he isn't on the ballot now. Democrats will not win either House of the Congress, and they won't gain seats either. I'd bet a kidney on it. If James Carville mouths off this time like a couple years ago, he'll have to slam a whole chicken on the top of his head.

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