Posted on 07/21/2006 11:05:26 AM PDT by STFrancis
The ground war has begun. Several Israeli brigades now appear to be operating between the Lebanese border and the Litani River. Hezbollah forces are dispersed in multiple bunker complexes and are launching rockets from these and other locations. Hezbollah's strategy appears to be threefold. First, force Israel into costly attacks against prepared fortifications. Second, draw Israeli troops as deeply into Lebanon as possible, forcing them to fight on extended supply lines. Third, move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford. The war has begun at Hezbollah's time and choosing. Israel is caught between three strategic imperatives. First, it must end the threat to Israeli cities, which must involve the destruction of Hezbollah's launch capabilities south of the Litani River. Second, it must try to destroy Hezbollah's infrastructure, which means it must move into the Bekaa Valley and as far as the southern suburbs of Beirut. Third, it must do so in such a way that it is not dragged into a long-term, unsustainable occupation against a capable insurgency. Hezbollah has implemented its strategy by turning southern Lebanon into a military stronghold, consisting of well-designed bunkers that serve both as fire bases and launch facilities for rockets. The militants appear to be armed with anti-tank weapons and probably anti-aircraft weapons, some of which appear to be of American origin, raising the question of how they were acquired. Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons.
(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
< p>
Can this be verified?
Finally.
O'Rielly had a Stratfor guy on the other night and he said Israel would attack soon - he said Rice would also cancel her trip if so since going in after a ground war started it would do little good.
like that... hizbollah using US rockets/anti tank? Gee- thats tough. Which nation did they sell into? Was it a Pakistani gift package?
Any plan will work as long as the other guy plays within your rules.
Don't play by their rules, and you have a new game.
Israel should just annex the southern half of Lebanon and be done with it. Anyone who doesn't like it can have a quick meeting with a bullet.
Cleaning out this long-time terrorist's "rats nest" would be a good thing, provided their stealth, speed and ferocity stands them in good stead like it usually does.
It looks like their enemy is betting on their bogging down like we have so an insergency tactic will work just like in Iraq!!!
I think they are mis-judging the Isrealis again!!!
So what did the article conclude?
Many of the prognostications from Stratfor are as accurate as touts from a Track junkie. I don't put a whole lot of confidence in its analysis or predictions.
The IDF may well establish a buffer zone, or rather re-establish one, but the rockets the Iranians have given Hezbollah have too much range to make that a total solution. They have to address the problem at its source and that's what it looks like they're doing.
Wny not eclare whatever section of Lebanon needed as a buffer zone to be the new Israeli artillary training range? As the range of the weapon systems used increases, the artillary range grows.
Condi's upcoming trip (if I'm reading the tea leaves right) may not be the standard run-of-the-mill "let's look for a diplomatic solution that leads to a ceasefire." It may be more out-of-the-box than that, and involve leveraging the Arabs against the Persians (Iran). Hope so.
Iranian TOW missiles, I would imagine. The Iranians may have also acquired and repaired Stingers left over from the Afghan-Soviet war.
Bunker busters? Israel has some, one would think.
Stratfor is always interesting in reporting details of situations but not always correct in predicting outcomes. No source is always correct, as we've all learned since 9/11.
I would like to work for Stratfor. Write articles on tactics and geopolitical strategy all day long. It'd be like setting up your green army men and tanks.
The IDF is only at a disadvantage when the PC handcuffs are on.
The cuffs are now off.
A bunker is a grave by another name. Fortifications were meant to channel an attack not as an end in itself, if the rag heads cannot maneuver off of the fortifications in strength, then all the Israelis have to do is isolate and eliminate.
What would Rice have to offer at this stage? Doesn't it seem better to stand back for now and let Israel handle this?
exactly right!
move into an Iraqi-style insurgency from which Israel -- out of fear of a resumption of rocket attacks -- cannot withdraw, but which the Israelis also cannot endure because of extended long-term casualties. This appears to have been a carefully planned strategy, built around a threat to Israeli cities that Israel can't afford.Occupation isn't in the future for Hizbollah. Come to think of it, nothing much is in the future of Hizbollah.
It would be interesting to look at a topographic map. Maybe with a few big explosions and some digging they could make the area a part of the Mediterranean Sea. [just a little Friday afternoon "thinking outside the box"]
Thankfully Israel did not give the Golan back to Syria.
I agree with you.
This sounds just the like the French strategy with the Maginot Line and look how good that worked.
Hezbollah may have miscalculated. The Israelis don't have PC, as far as I know, and they don't have people like John Murtha and Paul Craig Roberts to undermine their efforts from within Israel.
"Hezbollah wants to draw Israel into protracted fighting in this area in order to inflict maximum casualties and to change the psychological equation for both military and political reasons."
This will turn out to be the big Hez mistake.
They, as an "insurgency", have taken on an army AS an army.
Their big plan as analyzed here will FORCE israel to obviate the threat that they pose(and have ALWAYS posed).
Now Israel only has to kill them.
I hope the Israelis get their hands on the american anti tank weapons, so that they can be traced. There is a betrayal in there somewhere.
.....Don't play by their rules.....
Flame spewing tanks and massive naplm charges over the entrances...... over and over till crispy.
Provide imbedded tv to scare the dog**** out of others
That is my prediction for the strategery that is about to be used.
Been there, done that; and it isn't all playing with toy tanks and soldiers. Many hours of reading dull reports, creating and examining possible courses of action. Determining capability versus intent, and short-term versus long range goals.
And if the bad guys do something different or before or after what/when you estimated...you name is mudd and folks scream "intelligence failure."
Two words : "Bunker Busters"
Looking at the map again I wonder if Hezbollah might not be attacked from the East and the South. They could be cut off.
Source: Geographical Review, Jul93, Vol. 83 Issue 3, p229, 9p.
Access to the Litani River was a concern during Israel's formative years. The diaries of Moshe Sharett, an Israeli prime minister during the mid-1950s, reveal that Ben-Gurion and Moshe Dayan, chief of staff and defense minister, were strong advocates of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon to the Litani River (Rabinovich 1985).
In the wake of the 1967 war and in view of Israeli territorial gains from three of its four neighbors, Dayan reiterated his long-standing opinion that Israel had achieved "provisionally satisfying frontiers, with the exception of those with Lebanon" (Hof 1985, 36).
Ain't it the delightful truth? (snort!)
I question the efficacy of bunker busters. They apparently were used in Beruit on the complex there and we don't know what they did. We do know no big baddies were done in.
Also in Iraq we watched them fall but never saw really damaged bunkers. To the contrary, we saw bunkers entered and cautiously explored.
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em, Down Hezbullies.)
"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man." -- George S. Patton
In case you didn't notice Sadam Hussien's bunkers survived our best bunker busters. German engineering is pretty good.
Hell, come out of the Golan, put the Litani on your left flank and drive for Beirut.
Hiz will just jump over into syria.
Not if you cut them off before they can get around the Golan.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.