Posted on 08/11/2006 12:00:58 PM PDT by EternalHope
Midnight August 22nd
By now everyone who follows the news knows Iran has something in mind for August 22nd. That's when Iran says they will deliver their answer to the UN's demands that they cease their nuclear weapons program. They have also said the skies over Israel will be lit up, just as they believe they were lit up umpteen hundred years ago when their prophet was supposedly carried up to heaven for a visit. Most people think Iran intends to do more than deliver a note to Kofi Annan on August 22nd.
That's 11 days from now, give or take a few hours.
Does Iran plan a nuclear attack on Israel (or the U.S.) in 11 days?
I do not think President Bush will allow any specific attack to occur that he can prevent, regardless of the political consequences. But without knowing specific details about an attack, it is hard to know what will head it off.
The situation is similar to November of 1941. President Roosevelt is widely thought to have had advance intel letting him know Japan was about to do something, but chose to do nothing. It is not clear he knew where/when the attack would actually come. But regardless of what he did or did not know, the REPUBLICANS were in full isolationist mode. He could not make any significant move until his hand was stronger.
We face a similar "Pearl Harbor" situation today. President Bush does not have the political support he would need to start a general war with Iran. Absent a clear, specific, and imminent threat, including enough details for us to be able take actions that will head it off, President Bush's hands are tied.
I don't know the future, but here's a scenario that just might be true:
Iran (via proxies such as Hezbolla) launches a series of terrorist attacks between now and August 22nd. The hope is to provoke a response that can be used to justify whatever outrages follow. But even if no response is provoked, the subsequent attacks will occur.
Then, the night of August 21/22, Iran launches a multiple missile barrage designed to overwhelm Israel's missile defenses. Mixed in somewhere after the first hundred or so missiles have been fired is at least one missile with a nuclear warhead. Given the overload on Israel's missile defenses, this missile has a good chance to get through. If it does, part of Israel will be vaporized. Chaos ensues, and the Mahdi eventually returns (according to Ahmadinejad, anyway).
Ah, but we know this scenario is possible, maybe even probable. So we have a prepared response ready. (Count on it, Ahmadinejad).
Five minutes after the Iranian missile barrage starts a preplanned U.S. strike will be under way. Let's hope the U.S. response is fast enough, and strong enough, to keep the Iranian plan from succeeding.
Iran knows we will be ready, and they think we will not succeed in stopping them. But regardless of the outcome of that first engagement, the next phase of WWIV will have begun.
BEST CASE SCENARIO:
A. We succeed in stopping whatever Ahmadinejad has in mind.
B. Whatever it is we do, it also results in the Iranian people overthrowing their tyrannical overlords.
C. Iranian support for terror in Iraq ceases.
D. Peace and prosperity breaks out in Iran and Iraq. The middle east is transformed.
E. Islam eventually decides to compete for men's souls via Jihad of the mind, instead of Jihad of mass destruction.
F. We go back to living normal lives.
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
1. We find out how many Hezbollah and Al Qaida types are really in our midst. Widespread terrorist attacks occur in our own country.
2. We find out where Saddam's WMD went, plus whatever else the Islamofacists are capable of. Israel gets some, but so do lots of other places including the U.S.
3. If the Islamofacists can possibly provoke it, war breaks out between Pakistan and India. Such a war could very easily go nuclear.
4. North Korea may "seize the moment" and attack South Korea and perhaps even Japan. This war could also go nuclear.
5. China may decide the time has come to take Taiwan. Still another place that could go nuclear.
6. Every Muslim nation with oil may cut off supplies to the west. This would be enough to cripple the West, but might be trivial compared to everything else that could be happening by then.
I don't know which scenario is most likely, but I do know they are each possible. We could end up somewhere in between.
Regardless, the next Pearl Harbor could easily be just 11 days away. We see it coming. Perhaps this time we will be able to avoid getting hit so hard when the wake-up blow is delivered. And if it comes, let's hope the aftermath is not the Worst Case Scenario described above.
The war in Israel has not gone well for the good guys, but that is merely a side show compared to what Iran hopes will come next.
None of this is tin foil stuff. I wish it were.
We've been warned. They mean it.
I have confidence in President Bush, and I'm sure we'll be as ready as we possibly can be under the circumstances.
Not if we act TODAY. Not wait and see what happens on the 22nd. TODAY. International opinion be damned.
Maybe it won't be on the 22nd, maybe it will be on 9/11 or October 28, or whenever. But it will happen if we don't act fast.
We're planning an end of the world live thread:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1680521/posts
World to end on August 22
I've got REM qued up.
I actually am taking the Iranian Madman seriously, but all I can think of is how messed up my plans will be for the end of the month -- a nice vacation in the mountains, back to school night with our homeschool group, etc. It's almost surreal to hear about August 22 as a sort of doomsday and look at my life right now, which is so completely normal.
Throw in some Fishbone "Party at Ground Zero"
Think I'll order some sparklers. Make it an Israeli independence celebration.
I believe that we must rise early, and put an end to those who destroy us all.
LOL!
Not only might President Roosevelt have known in advance of the attack at Pearl Harbor...FDR's Administration sought for more than a year to provoke an attack to marginalize those "isolationist" Republicans you disparage. In October of 1940, Lt Cmndr McCollum of the Office of Naval Intelligence submitted a memo to two of FDR's most trusted military advisors in which he set forth an 8 step plan to provoke Japan into attacking the US. Over the course of the next 12 months, all of those steps were implemented.
It is not believed that in the present state of political opinion the United States government is capable of declaring war against Japan without more ado; and it is barely possible that vigorous action on our part might lead the Japanese to modify their attitude. Therefore, the following course of action is suggested:
A. Make an arrangement with Britain for the use of British bases in the Pacific, particularly Singapore.
B. Make an arrangement with Holland for the use of base facilities and acquisition of supplies in the Dutch East Indies.
C. Give all possible aid to the Chinese government of Chiang-Kai-Shek.
D. Send a division of long range heavy cruisers to the Orient, Philippines, or Singapore.
E. Send two divisions of submarines to the Orient.
F. Keep the main strength of the U.S. fleet now in the Pacific in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands.
G. Insist that the Dutch refuse to grant Japanese demands for undue economic concessions, particularly oil.
H. Completely embargo all U.S. trade with Japan, in collaboration with a similar embargo imposed by the British Empire.
10. If by these means Japan could be led to commit an overt act of war, so much the better. At all events we must be fully prepared to accept the threat of war.
The notion that Iran is going to nuke the US is absurd...if it even has nuclear weapons...the CIA estimates it is not even close. Of course, generating a climate of fear and paranoia is what government does...its how it perpetuates its existence.
I have confidence in President Bush, and I'm sure we'll be as ready as we possibly can be under the circumstances.
Don't. Government...even the American government...is not be trusted. In the words of Randolph Bourne, war is the health of the state.
Iran will pop a nuke in Beriut or Damascus and blame Israel.
I'm looking for an article I read back in 1996 that predicted this. I think it was by Ralph Peters, or he wrote a forward for it.
I'm actually surprised it hasn't happened already.
At best, Iran could test a home grown nuke on Aug 22. If they intend to shot a missile based nuke, they are using someone other country's components. Designing a working nuke missile isn't all that easy.
Making a nuke is tough, making a small lightweight nuke is tougher still. Lots of testing needs to be done to get it right. We haven't seen nuke tests carried out in Iran that I am aware of.
I've been praying that there will be an Iranian, someone perhaps in ahmadnijab's inner circle, who will have a crisis of conscience and leak information about the madman's plans.
Well I'm scheduled to fly to Europe on 9/1, so if we're going to nuke Iran I hope we do it before then so I can factor that into my travel plans.
LOL! IIRC the rest of it goes,
Women and poor hardest hit.
Vanity is right, there is little to support your supposition. Since President Bush insists on using
our fighters as targets in Iraq wouldnt it be more likely
for them to take the brunt of an Iranian attack.
An attack on Jerusalem might provoke a response
that Iran might not be able to absorb.
Save the Bay Crabs!
Pakistan has working nukes, and working missiles to carry them. The head of the Pakistani nuclear program is a fanatical Jihadi and sold the plans to multiple Muslim nations. He is a national hero in Pakistan, so he was only placed under house arrest when he was arrested. He made a public confession and "apologized".
It is widely believed that North Korea has sold missiles to Iran.
Put the two together, plus enough fissionable material, and you have a nuclear armed Iran, plus the means to deliver.
It may all be "sound and fury, signifying nothing", but a bluff can backfire politically. If Iran is bluffing, then Ahmadinejad may have talked himself into a corner he cannot get out of without a huge loss of face.
I hope that is what he has done, but I doubt he would take that chance.
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