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Fred Barnes: Snatching Victory . . . (Republicans can still salvage the midterm elections)
The Weekly Standard ^ | September 4, 2006 | Fred Barnes, for the Editors

Posted on 08/26/2006 1:38:40 PM PDT by RWR8189

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1 posted on 08/26/2006 1:38:42 PM PDT by RWR8189
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To: RWR8189

I don't think Bush is running this year, no?


2 posted on 08/26/2006 1:44:07 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: Shermy

I see this as very accurate analysis.


3 posted on 08/26/2006 1:48:39 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: RWR8189
The way to achieve it is hardly a secret. Besides national security, the issue that most energizes conservatives and Republicans is judges.

And, while Fred is loathe to mention it, there is illegal immigration...

If the GOP politicians want to win over the GOP base, it's very simple:

1. Fight the war in Iraq. And elsewhere. And do it proudly.

2. Nominate original intent judges. Fight for them in Congress. Get them approved.

3. Enforce the laws concerning illegal immigration -- at the border and in the interior. And don't apologize for doing the right thing.

4 posted on 08/26/2006 1:49:57 PM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: okie01

Rule #4: Shut your mouths and stop promoting amnesty!

Nothing keeps conservative voters in November like Republican elected officals supporting amnesty.

If the GOP loses Congress in November, the Bush/McCain/Kennedy amnesty plan will have had a major role.


5 posted on 08/26/2006 1:55:02 PM PDT by nj26 (Border Security=Homeland Security... Put Our Military on the Border! (Proud2BNRA))
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To: okie01

Maybe he bounced back because we are being more aggressive in Iraq. The left seems to think all of the polls show that America is completely against the war when in fact there a good number of people who were not and are not against the war. They are tired of seeing us fight with one arm behind are backs and if anything want a much more aggressive war. In the polls these tired of the drip, drip, drip of casualties show up as lack of support but in fact nothing could be further from the truth. You want to see a republican resurgance TAKE THE GLOVES OFF!


6 posted on 08/26/2006 1:55:57 PM PDT by marlon
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To: nj26

"Rule #4: Shut your mouths and stop promoting amnesty!"

It won't happen. Unfortunately, "W" is a natural liberal who just happens to have a few conservative views -- tax policy and the proper role of the courts the most prominent of these views -- and, like almost all liberals, he can't imagine that any thoughtful person could disagree with him on anything.


7 posted on 08/26/2006 1:58:51 PM PDT by vetsvette (Bring Him Back)
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To: Shermy
Bush isn't running, but he's the Republican leader, and his popularity, or lack of, will have a significant impact on Republican chances. Much of the grousing about Bush by the media doesn't have a basis in fact, it's just attacking Bush because he's a Republican, he's breathing, and he's in the White House. However, winning over Democrats has never been the way Republicans get elected. They do that by appealing to their base and independents that share their values.

I think the Republicans have several problems right now:

1. Border security. A porous border undercuts our position of being strong in stopping terrorism, and I believe much of the anger over Iraq is based on the fact that millions pour over the US borders illegally. The Rats won't do anything to stop it, but they will exploit it.

2. Spending. Republicans have jumped into the pork barrel as hard, or harder, than Rats. This will hurt them badly with fiscal conservatives.

3. Barnes is correct about the judiciary. The Pubbies have done pretty well, but we haven't communicated it. The recent ruling by the Carter appointee would have been a perfect time to bring this issue back to the front.

That being said, I've got the broken glass ready, because the Rats, if they get back in power, will do everything they can to ensure that:

1. There's never another honest election in this country.

2. Hannity, Limbaugh, most talk radio, and the internet are shut down.

3. The judiciary is composed of people who think Stalin wasn't harsh enough in dealing with conservatives.

8 posted on 08/26/2006 1:59:21 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (The most important thing is sincerity. Once you can fake that, everything else is easy.)
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To: RWR8189
No mention of the illegal alien invasion? Bush and Republicans should take real action to secure our borders and deport all criminal illegals.

I guess they're afraid of losing the Hispanic voting bloc. But this is something voters from both parties would whole heartedly support.
9 posted on 08/26/2006 2:00:41 PM PDT by Bullish ( The pig headed monkeys of Islam can kiss my grits!)
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It wouldn't be a bad idea, either, for the Republican House and Senate to secure the borders of this country. Just a thought.


10 posted on 08/26/2006 2:01:43 PM PDT by JustaDumbBlonde
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To: AFPhys

It's an accurate reaction to the Democrat's inaccurate strategy which they've been advertising.

The races will be decided on local issues and the immigration bill.

Bush can screw it up if he starts pushing his America-busting radical immigration plans aka "comprehensive." Bilbray, a few others have challenged Bush publicly, I think the shyness has returned. Too bad because most people want a break from Bush.

Will Bush do it? Absolutely, and Rove/bolten will push it. A lot of post-2008 consultation job money running on getting the Senate bill through now. It must have seemed so close, the LSM and Democrats so easily stampeded by Rove's demonization of conservatives.

Republican control could be lost if Bush steps in before the election on immigration and the Repubs. don't denounce him.


11 posted on 08/26/2006 2:02:32 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: AFPhys
I think clamping down on the border and passing legislation making spending earmarks transparent would do wonders for the Repubs.

I doubt either will happen.
12 posted on 08/26/2006 2:03:10 PM PDT by Blackirish (I'm George Allen and I apologize.)
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To: Bullish

"No mention of the illegal alien invasion?"

It's the elephant in the room. MSM chatter so far dictated by Dem press releases focusing on Iraq to juice moonbat donations. Dems can't touch immigration, Dean and others were lead like lemmings to support the Bush/Senate plan.


13 posted on 08/26/2006 2:05:03 PM PDT by Shermy
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To: okie01

You're right and Fred and his boss, Bill Kristol, are part of the "open borders" lobby that just don't get it. Barnes has been rightly described by Ramesh Ponnuru, of National Review magazine, as a "big government conservative" -- in other words, a Kerry-lite.

Much of the conservative base has also been disgusted with Bush's out-of-control spending and the creation of the biggest entitlement since LBJ.

That's why if the Republicans want to retain Congress they MUST distance themselves from Bush's domestic policies.


14 posted on 08/26/2006 2:18:44 PM PDT by T.L.Sink
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To: Shermy

"I don't think Bush is running this year, no?"

No, just his party. Woe unto us if he loses the congress too. Reid, Pelosi, Soros and Al Franken and the people who worship them will finish off the heart and soul of this nation.


15 posted on 08/26/2006 2:21:04 PM PDT by billhilly
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To: RWR8189
The way to achieve it (motivate conservative base) is hardly a secret. Besides national security, the issue that most energizes conservatives and Republicans is judges.

Good grief. As usual brain dead Fred is clueless. The base is already motivated to halt ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. Bush and the republican leadership only need to board the train. Wake up Fred.

16 posted on 08/26/2006 2:25:16 PM PDT by Maynerd (New Middle East policy - less troops more nukes)
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To: AFPhys
This reminds me of the pundits in 1972. The polls said Nixon's approval was in the mid to high 30s. How could Nixon win?

Not only did he win he won a bigger percentage of the vote than Reagan did in 1984. Nixon won 60.7 percent of the votes. He came with in 1/10 of one percent of wining the biggest victory of the 20th century. He nearly broke FDR's record.

How could Nixon's 39 percent job approval turn into a 60.7 percent win?

It is pretty simple to figure out. It is the same situation today. The media and Fred Barnes things the lack of support for Bush is about Iraq. And that is true. But only a small percentage want us to get out of Iraq. The latest polls show only 22 percent of likely voters want to pull out of IRAQ.

Only 39 percent think Bush is doing a good job. But another 22 percent want him to kick ass and take names. They want him to fight harder. These voters are not going to vote for a Cut and Run Democrat. It is apparent in the inability of John Murtha to get people to campaign for him. In fact no one wants Murtha to campaign FOR them. Democrats want him to go away.

Why do the media polls under poll Republicans? Because they assume those hard core Republicans are not going to vote for Democrats. And since they don't support President Bush, they are not going to vote.

Yet, when the choice comes to stay the course or cut and run... stay the course wins. The voters who want to nuke em and then come home will be scared to death that Democrats might take over and surrender.

The turnout will be big and the media will be telling us that voters changed their minds in the last 24 hours.

This is a good year to be a Republican... It is just that the Washington Pundits don't know it... yet.

17 posted on 08/26/2006 2:28:26 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: RWR8189

18 posted on 08/26/2006 2:29:29 PM PDT by Gritty (The sewer that is Washington DC is now looking like a hot tub to the GOP - Richard Viguerie)
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To: Badray; smokeyb; jim_g_goldwing

PING!


19 posted on 08/26/2006 2:31:09 PM PDT by Conservative Goddess (Politiae legibus, non leges politiis, adaptandae)
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To: vetsvette

But given the same choice, I'd take President Bush over Gore, Kerry, or anyone else the rats put up there hands down. I can't even think of a "conservative" ready to run for prez from either party.


20 posted on 08/26/2006 2:34:40 PM PDT by Chi-townChief
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To: okie01
Well, at least Fred made sense this time rather then arguing we're insignificant and that the people are really okay with Miers, amnesty, etc...as is his track record.

Seems in an abstract way he's acknowledging if Republicans want to win they are going to have to do better then produce an angry and indifferent base even if doesn't delve too deeply as to why we're in this mood lately, a mood that pretty much describes my mood these days when I concentrate on politics. Which is why I've been taking more time away these days, rather then live 24/7 in that mood.

Republicans have the most sophisticated turnout operation known to man. But it won't work if Republican voters, particularly conservatives, are angry at their leaders or indifferent.

Nice Fred has finally got that.

he's right that we should just fight and win in Iraq, be damned hearts and minds. Not that I don't share that agenda, still, but I'm at a point where I don't believe it can happen jointly. So, first break the agents of Iran and Syria, lay down the law, THEN we can go back to hearts and minds.

He's right that we should dump the diplomatic route for Iran we've tried this term. It's a failure.

He's right we sould return to judges because to this day it STILL rankles so many have been mistreated.

And, since I know the administration and the Mccain's of the world are unlikely to do right by the border at this time, at least resolve to be quiet. Stop attacking the House for standing for the borders. meanwhile the other candidates that have their heads on straight can campaign for border security without being undermined by the agents of amnesty.

21 posted on 08/26/2006 2:41:00 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: RWR8189

bttt


22 posted on 08/26/2006 2:48:05 PM PDT by Christian4Bush (The only way to bring a permanent peace is to eliminate the permanent threat. - FReeper Optimist)
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To: RWR8189

Excellent article by Barnes and right on the money.

Iran is the key. Iran's government must be changed. Do that, and the tension in Iraq will go away. And we need not occupy Iran. We simply need to displace their government, destroy their nuclear capacity the old fashioned way (brick by brick), and then depart. Leave with the message that we'll be back again is they aggravate us again.

If Iran were not so involved in the Iraqi intrique, and if Iran were not for decades now the world's leading exporter of terrorism, then it might be different. But both of the above are true.

Take out Iran and ALL of the other pieces will fall in place.


23 posted on 08/26/2006 2:51:10 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it! Supporting our troops means praying for them to WIN!)
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To: Shermy
It's the elephant in the room.

More accurately, it's the big pile of steaming, stinking elephant DUNG in the room. The more they ignore it, the bigger the problem gets. All other problems America faces pale in comparison.

24 posted on 08/26/2006 3:05:02 PM PDT by Bullish ( The pig headed monkeys of Islam can kiss my grits!)
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To: Common Tator

I can't believe it.

You wrote a whole post and didn't dis the President on border stuff.

Very interrresting.


25 posted on 08/26/2006 3:06:13 PM PDT by altura (Bushbot No. 1 - get in line.)
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To: Richard Kimball
winning over Democrats has never been the way Republicans get elected.

Absolutely true. This may be the major Republican problem. Too many of them are following the polls, reading the NYT and WashPost, and then trying to "out Dem" the Dems.

26 posted on 08/26/2006 3:12:26 PM PDT by etlib (No creature without tentacles has ever developed true intelligence)
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To: Bullish
NAH!! 4 percent of Democrats support your position and 17 percent of Republicans.

It is not a deciding factor for much of anyone except the Pat Buchanan brigade. That amounted to about the same posting space here on FR in 2000 that you use today. It amounted to 1/3 of one percent on election day.

27 posted on 08/26/2006 3:35:50 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: Common Tator

Take off those rose-colored glasses. Illegal immigration is a serious problem, it motivates the republican base, and you can bet a majority of Americans support a fence on the border and stoping illegal immigration.


28 posted on 08/26/2006 4:15:33 PM PDT by NapkinUser
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To: RWR8189
Barnes, the first of many to begin backtracking so he will be on the right side of a GOP IMPROVEMENT in both houses. This, I predict, is only the first of many by both Barnes and everyone else.

KEY: earlier this week Carville and other Dem spinmeisters started to float the "vote fraud" in six states---an absolute sure sign they don't think they will win and need to have an issue when they lose.

29 posted on 08/26/2006 4:19:20 PM PDT by LS
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To: AFPhys
I think Fred's still behind the curve. The question is not whether the GOP will hold. Clearly they will. The question is whether they can GAIN---and I think they can, and will.

See the post above for the comment Rush had from Carville about "vote fraud" in six states. They are already starting to prepare for the inevitable.

30 posted on 08/26/2006 4:20:21 PM PDT by LS
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To: vetsvette

That was NOT my experience when I spent an hour with Bush in the Oval Office last month. Quite the contrary, he seeks out opinions and advice, and listened to everything.


31 posted on 08/26/2006 4:21:24 PM PDT by LS
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To: Common Tator

Uhm, I think most of Nixons victory in 72 was due to the fact that his opponent was George McGovren.


32 posted on 08/26/2006 4:25:41 PM PDT by RFT1
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To: xzins
And we need not occupy Iran. We simply need to displace their government, destroy their nuclear capacity the old fashioned way (brick by brick), and then depart.

This is the same error that has led to the status quo in Iraq.

Yes, there are some Westernized Persians who, if they were in power would be better for us.

But Amanutjob was popularly elected, his nuclearization policy is very popular, and the majority of young males of military age are fanatics, with more on the way in the 12-16 age range.

Shia Iran = Shinto Japan.

If we aren't prepared for conquest and occupation, we should pursue a policy of appeasement.

33 posted on 08/26/2006 4:31:31 PM PDT by Jim Noble (President of the FR Rudy 2008 caucus, posting for 3 days from the City he saved.)
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To: RWR8189; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Kuksool; zbigreddogz; JohnnyZ; ...

This is a reasonalby well-thought analysis.


34 posted on 08/26/2006 4:33:04 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (illegal aliens commit crimes that Americans won't commit)
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To: Richard Kimball
However, winning over Democrats has never been the way Republicans get elected.

Ronald Reagan says 'hi.'

35 posted on 08/26/2006 4:34:31 PM PDT by HitmanLV ("If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking until you do succeed." - Jerry 'Curly' Howard)
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To: HitmanLV
That's a very good point. Reagan, though, didn't bring Democrats over by adopting liberal policies. Reagan spoke for smaller government, reduced taxes, and support of small business. I always thought that Reagan's greatest strength was that he was a phenomenally successful politician who was never co-opted by the political class.

The point I was making was that Republicans will not be successful by adopting Democrat policies, hoping to get the Left to love them. Reagan appealed to the best of our instincts. He was never loved by the Republican establishment, and was, of course, hated by the Left and the media. He was only loved by the average voter.

BTW, dare you to read this excerpt from his farewwell address without misting up.

I've spoken of the shining city all my political life, but I don't know if I ever quite communicated what I saw when I said it. But in my mind it was a tall proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, wind-swept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace, a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity, and if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here. That's how I saw it, and see it still.

And how stand the city on this winter night? More prosperous, more secure, and happier than it was eight years ago. But more than that; after two hundred years, two centuries, she still stands strong and true on the granite ridge, and her glow has held steady no matter what storm. And she's still a beacon, still a magnet for all who must have freedom, for all the pilgrims from all the lost places who are hurtling through the darkness, toward home.

We've done our part. And as I walk off into the city streets, a final word to the men and women of the Reagan revolution, the men and women across America who for eight years did the work that brought America back. My friends: We did it. We weren't just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger. We made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all.

And so, good-bye, God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.


36 posted on 08/26/2006 5:07:48 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (The most important thing is sincerity. Once you can fake that, everything else is easy.)
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To: marlon

"Take the gloves off"

I agree it is time to vigorously fight:

1. Cut n run Democrats.
2. Defeatist Democrats.
3. Defeatist media.
4. Pro illegal immigration Democrats.
5. Big spenders in Congress on BOTH sides.
6. Corruption in the UN and weakness in our "allies".
7. Nuclear ambitions of dictatorships in N Korea and Iran.

Why are they afraid to agressively confront the real issues of our time?


37 posted on 08/26/2006 5:40:49 PM PDT by Saint Louis
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To: Richard Kimball

*Ronaldus Magnus Bump*


38 posted on 08/26/2006 5:48:19 PM PDT by Yardstick
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To: Shermy

Why does Barnes think that "stern sanctions" against Iran is going to make people vote Republican? Sanctions may or may not be good policy, but either way I don't see the lack of sanctions as the reason Republicans are in trouble. People are upset about gas prices (wait - wouldn't sanction INCREASE gas prices?) and ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. I just skimmed this article, but I don't think I saw anything about immigration in it. Does Barnes not think it's an issue? If he doesn't, he's not worth listening to as a "political expert."


39 posted on 08/26/2006 5:56:11 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: xzins
Iran is the key. Iran's government must be changed. """

Maybe so, but I don't see Iran as the key to getting more people to vote Republican. Show me a poll that says the reason the GOP's numbers are low is because we haven't slapped sanctions on Iran. I honestly think Iran is low on most voters' priority list - if you have a poll that says otherwise, I'd like to see it. The polls I've seen say that people are upset by 1) Iraq war; and 2) gasoline prices. Among the base, ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION is big. But Barnes doesn't even mention it, does he?

40 posted on 08/26/2006 5:59:25 PM PDT by churchillbuff
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To: Jim Noble

"If we aren't prepared for conquest and occupation, we should pursue a policy of appeasement."

I vote conquest, skipping quickly through normal weapon, to big deadly demoralizaing ones.

The fewer remaining to pacify and occupy, the better.

Set the example we missed with Iraq.

Call it payback for 1979.


41 posted on 08/26/2006 6:15:53 PM PDT by truth_seeker
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To: Saint Louis

Because it aint easy and we have become fat lazy and comfortable. Osama, camel humper that he is, knows more about us than we'd like to admit. Who has time for war, corruption at the UN and illegals poring over our borders when we have more important things to worry about. For instance did you know Tom Cruise lost his studio? Jonbenet's perv killer is landing in the US? Michael Jackson is going broke? etc, etc, etc.


42 posted on 08/26/2006 6:28:45 PM PDT by marlon
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To: LS

I'm not sure that I believe the Democrats are certain they won't win, but I do agree they are trying to cover their bases by floating out excuses.

Most observers are aware mid-terms are about base turnout. When motivated...the GOP has a bigger base. 2004 proved that. Democrats can't be certain the GOP's base won't turn out. Nor are they entirely comfortable pridicting the behavior of their own base right now after CT. Hence the uncertainty.

You may well be right about Barnes trying to cover for excessive doom in past. But, then, serves every insider like himself right for jumping on the conventional wisdom of the Beltway to guage the future. Better if they focused on the actual thinking of the people in the country, rather then that of the paid propagandists.

If I recall, your assessment has been consistently that they'd pick up a few seats? Mine has been fairly close, even in my outraged state. That we were looking at "status quo" with possibility for a few changes either negative or positive but nothing dramatically different. With Republicans largely the ones that can control their own fate here. Even at this late date.


43 posted on 08/26/2006 6:53:37 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: everyone

Homeland security, liberal judicial tyranny, Rat extremism (and immigration, for Republican candidates generally, but not for Bush). Barnes is right about taking aggressive positions on Iraq and Iran. But only as part of the mix.


44 posted on 08/26/2006 7:06:26 PM PDT by California Patriot ("That's not Charlie the Tuna out there. It's Jaws." -- Richard Nixon)
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To: churchillbuff

I mean to stability in Iraq and to the WOT.


45 posted on 08/26/2006 7:16:42 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it! Supporting our troops means praying for them to WIN!)
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To: Jim Noble

There is no need to occupy. There is only a need to settle matters with the current regime, and then to depart. Eventually, a regime that values longevity will come to power.



46 posted on 08/26/2006 7:25:29 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and proud of it! Supporting our troops means praying for them to WIN!)
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To: Shermy

Bush is really unpopular. The problem for the democrats is that if bush did run again, he would squash almost any democrat they could put up because they have zero ideas about anything.


47 posted on 08/26/2006 9:20:58 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: Soul Seeker
Yah, my prediction was +1 in the Senate (all GOP hold, we gain either MN or NJ) and +1 to +5 in the House. The latter has been complicated by DeLay's idiocy, turning a sure win into a tough race, and by Ney's late resignation (although my OH people who know say this still should be a GOP win).

But Rush read a piece---one of those "inside" things by Carville---and it was TELLING. They were basically saying that the election would be "stolen" in six states if they didn't watch out. Why are they even talking about a "stolen" election if they think they will win?

48 posted on 08/27/2006 5:41:11 AM PDT by LS
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To: RWR8189

I'm not getting this- don't these pols and "newspeople" EVER talk to real people? The demonRATS are all pumped over poll results and conservatives are wringing their hands. Are they so sure that those who would NEVER vote for a leftist are just so angry at the reps that we would EVER vote for a dem?

Most of us are pretty angry with the nonsense- immigration, the direction of the war, education, etc- but that does NOT mean we would THEN shoot ourselves in the foot.

They truly need to poke their noses outside the Beltway every once in a while...


49 posted on 08/27/2006 5:47:57 AM PDT by 13Sisters76 ("It is amazing how many people mistake a certain hip snideness for sophistication. " Thos. Sowell)
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To: Common Tator
We have an interesting situation here in Iowa. The Democrat Congressional Committee is supposedly pulling their financial support for Boswell because he is so far ahead of challenger, Jeff Lamberti that they're putting their money elsewhere.

I don't believe it for one minute. Lamberti is a good candidate.

50 posted on 08/27/2006 5:52:55 AM PDT by Conservativegreatgrandma
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