Skip to comments.Never let facts get in the way of a supposed Democratic takeover (No Republican polled is losing.)
Posted on 09/06/2006 7:43:50 PM PDT by dangus
Pundits of every stripe have been treating it as a forgone conclusion that the Democrats would pick up many seats in the House. Most suggest that the Democrats are in strong shape to gain the fifteen needed to take control. There's only one problem with that theory: while the generic surveys show the Democrats with a significant, although quickly shrinking lead, when faced with a real, live Democrat -- not their idealized 1940s populist, but a real, dyed-in-the-wool blame-America Democrat -- they decide the Republicans aren't so bad after all. So far.
Now, it's only election day, and it's true that there are a lot of Republicans in tight races. Normally, that spells trouble. But it should not be surprising that in this specific election, there are many Democrats who, no matter what, announce early on that they will vote for whatever Democrat they can. That's what I believe has changed: the incumbent doesn't get the early rubber stamp. But only one publicly-released poll has shown a Democrat leading in a seat currently held by a Republican... and that's a statistical tie by a shady polling outfit.
Now, I'm sure that there are probably some Republican seats which may go Democrat. For instance, Bob Ney's and Tom DeLay's may go Democrat just because of ballot-law shenanigans. And several of the most endangered Republicans have not had polls released on their districts. Nonetheless, it HAS to be considered significant that not one of the polls that has come out show a Republican losing. I certainly expect that if a Democratic, academic, or liberal-media poll showed a Republican losing, that poll would be quickly heralded.
That said, this is the polling data I've found after discovering that Politics1.com is the best for publishing every poll released publicly:
UTAH - CD-1: Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 57%, engineer Steve Olsen (D) - 23%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).
UTAH - CD-3: Congressman Chris Cannon (R) - 56%, attorney Christian Burridge (D) - 24%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).
VERMONT - CONGRESS: State Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R) - 42%, Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D) - 41%. (American Research Group). (Pickup for GOP)
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 57%, State Representative Darlene Curl (R) - 11%, peace activist Dexter Kamilewicz (Independent) - 3%. (Strategic Marketing).
MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Mike Michaud (D) - 62%, medical technician Scott D'Amboise (R) - 14%. (Strategic Marketing).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Jeb Bradley (R) - 55%, State House Minority Leader Jim Craig (D) - 27%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Bradley (R) - 58%, Democratic activist Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 24%. (University of New Hampshire).
NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Charlie Bass (R) - 53%, attorney Paul Hodes (D) - 25%. (University of New Hampshire).
KENTUCKY - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congressman Geoff Davis (R) - 46%, former Congressman Ken Lucas (D) - 44%. (WCPO-TV/SurveyUSA). (A previous poll had Davis behind by nine points.)
NEW YORK - CD-20: Congressman John Sweeney (R) - 53%, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 34%. (Siena College).
WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) - 54%, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) - 41%. (KING-TV/SurveyUSA).
COLORADO - CD-7: State Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell (R) - 45%, former State Senator Ed Perlmutter (D) - 45%, businessman Dave Chandler (Green) - 2%, businessman Roger McCarville (Constitution) - 2%. (KFOR-TV/SurveyUSA). (Potential Democrat Pickup)
CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-48: Congressman John Campbell (R) - 57%, attorney Steve Young (D) - 31%, realtor Bruce Cohen (Libertarian) - 6%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).
CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-26: Congressman Dave Dreier (R) - 48%, environmental consultant Cynthia Matthews (D) - 35%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).
COLORADO - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 46%, State Representative Angie Paccione (D) - 42%, former Reagan Administration EPA official Eric Eidsness (Reform) - 8%. (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA).
NEW MEXICO - CD-1: Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) - 45%, Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) - 42%. (Albuquerque Journal).
VIRGINIA -CD-5: Congressman Virgil Goode (R) - 59%, winemaker Al Weed (D) - 35%. (WDBJ-TV/SurveyUSA).
The only Republican trailing: (This is a very old poll, incidentally... from two months ago, and I've heard not-particularly-rock-solid whispers that Chocola is turning it around.)
INDIANA -CD-2: Attorney Joe Donnelly (D) - 46%, Congressman Chris Chocola (R) - 41%. (South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV).
If anyone else has any polling data of HOUSE races, please be sure to share. Also, note that, besides Chocola, the other seat polling that it would currently switch hands would go from Democrat to Republican (Vermont.)
Any Irey/Murtha polls yet?
For clarification: The two Maine polls included are from districts where the Democrat is incumbent.
No. Incidentally, I didn't see them made public, but I understand that even in the two Connecticut liberal Republicans' districts (Shays and Johnson), the Republicans are ahead... Same for McHugh's district in NY and Bilbray's in California.
I went looking for polls on Tim Walberg here in Michigan's 7th district but didn't find any. We're a pretty firm GOP district.
All I found was a bunch of enraged atheists. LOL
My understanding is that Murtha's district is now considered to be in play by some Washingtonians. My insider sources are not great... they are just Capital-Hill immigration-reform activists... but I do have them. :^D
Constituent Dynamics has polled what it considers to be the hottest 30 races. Their results are not being reported, and I've never heard of their outfit, so maybe they are fly-by-night. That said, of the polls from districts where I've seen other polls, their results seem more to the Democrats.
They show the following Republican seats in trouble:
Rick O'Donnell (CO-7) trailing by 2. (Open seat)
Rob Simmons (CT-2) trailing by 6.
Mike Whalen (IA-1) trailing by 13. (Open seat)
Peter Roskam (IL-6) trailing by 1. (Open seat) (opponent Duckworth had huge name advantage.)
Charles Taylor (NC-11) trailing by 3.
Jim Gerlach (PA-6) trailing by 5.
Don Sherwood (PA-10) trailing by 7.
Dave Reichert (WA-8) trailing by 3. (Other polls showed Reichert with a comfy lead.)
Thelma Drake (VA-2) trailing by 8.
I am not counting races where no primary has been held yet.
Much like Al Qaida, Hamas and Hezbollah have learned that spinning the media is useful because it takes the will out of their opponents, the Democrats do the same.
They hope that bad news will discourage the Republican base (as AQ hopes bad news will cause us to pull our troops) and that is what it is all about.
Lets deal them a double dose and push their faces in the mud. Then, when they lose the election, lets push the AQ and the Iraq insurgency into the mud too.
If I was the Repubs, I would be making the argument that re-electing the Repubs will send a message to the terrorists that the USA does NOT BACK DOWN. No Cut-and-run, we are coming for you!!!!
Hopefully, they get the idea before it is too late.
The same polling firm shows only two Republicans leading tight races, Geoff Davis (+3), and Heather Wilson (+3). They are still polling three races, including Chris Chocola. It looks like the worst-case scenario is currently that Republicans lose 14 seats. Based on today's polling, I'd say that if the polls were held today, the Republicans lose 7 seats. The reality will probably be better than that.
He has never won.
He is a becoming a bit of a joke here. Despite the very liberal electorate here I think alot of voters are saying to themselve, "not this guy AGAIN."
|Peter is the one on the right. (In VT you can't assume anything)|
Bush matriarch stumps for Vermont GOP
By Shay Totten | Vermont Guardian
Posted Sept. 6, 2006
SOUTH BURLINGTON For the first time in several years, Bush family matriarch Barbara Bush hit the campaign trail, stopping in Vermont Wednesday to help raise money for Republican congressional hopeful Martha Rainville.
Rainville, the states former adjutant general, faces State Sen. Mark Shepard of Bennington in the GOP primary on Tuesday. Shepard came to the event at its close to talk to reporters, much to the dismay of several Rainville staffers who hovered around Shepard to hear what he had to say.
Bush is the second member of the First Family to make a trip to Vermont to raise money and the spirits of the states GOP. She told the crowd that the White House has asked her to come to show that the Bushes back Rainville, and because she is such a great candidate.
Rainville told reporters after the event that was happy to have the former First Lady in town, and was unaware that the White House had asked her to stump for her.
She also said she doesnt expect the president to come to Vermont on her behalf, despite the interest in the race. He doesnt need to; were doing well as we are, Rainville said.
If the demoncrats gain one seat it will be a voter mandate against the President and his policy in Iraq.
If the Republicans gain one seat it will be because of rampant voter fraud sponsored by the President and his henchman Carl Rove.
Thw wide Dum lead represents nationwide polling on whether you'd vote for a Deum orRep., but the voting is local. Dums will run up 90% numbers in districts in Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta etc. These ridiculous numbers find their way into the nationwide polls. It's very conceivable that the Dums could win a total vote in House elections , but fail to win any real increase in membership.
What about the Repub guy who ran for Senate last time? Would he have any support?
Awesome post!!! Thanx for compiling this.
The guy who ran against Leahy, Jack McMullen, got labled a carpetbagger and got no support. The fact that Howard Dean, Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch are out-of-state liberals apparently bothers no one.
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