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Never let facts get in the way of a supposed Democratic takeover (No Republican polled is losing.)
Compiled from Politics1.com ^ | 9/6/06 | Dangus

Posted on 09/06/2006 7:43:50 PM PDT by dangus

Pundits of every stripe have been treating it as a forgone conclusion that the Democrats would pick up many seats in the House. Most suggest that the Democrats are in strong shape to gain the fifteen needed to take control. There's only one problem with that theory: while the generic surveys show the Democrats with a significant, although quickly shrinking lead, when faced with a real, live Democrat -- not their idealized 1940s populist, but a real, dyed-in-the-wool blame-America Democrat -- they decide the Republicans aren't so bad after all. So far.

Now, it's only election day, and it's true that there are a lot of Republicans in tight races. Normally, that spells trouble. But it should not be surprising that in this specific election, there are many Democrats who, no matter what, announce early on that they will vote for whatever Democrat they can. That's what I believe has changed: the incumbent doesn't get the early rubber stamp. But only one publicly-released poll has shown a Democrat leading in a seat currently held by a Republican... and that's a statistical tie by a shady polling outfit.

Now, I'm sure that there are probably some Republican seats which may go Democrat. For instance, Bob Ney's and Tom DeLay's may go Democrat just because of ballot-law shenanigans. And several of the most endangered Republicans have not had polls released on their districts. Nonetheless, it HAS to be considered significant that not one of the polls that has come out show a Republican losing. I certainly expect that if a Democratic, academic, or liberal-media poll showed a Republican losing, that poll would be quickly heralded.

That said, this is the polling data I've found after discovering that Politics1.com is the best for publishing every poll released publicly:

UTAH - CD-1: Congressman Rob Bishop (R) - 57%, engineer Steve Olsen (D) - 23%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).

UTAH - CD-3: Congressman Chris Cannon (R) - 56%, attorney Christian Burridge (D) - 24%. (Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV).

VERMONT - CONGRESS: State Adjutant General Martha Rainville (R) - 42%, Senate President Pro Tem Peter Welch (D) - 41%. (American Research Group). (Pickup for GOP)

MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 57%, State Representative Darlene Curl (R) - 11%, peace activist Dexter Kamilewicz (Independent) - 3%. (Strategic Marketing).

MAINE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Mike Michaud (D) - 62%, medical technician Scott D'Amboise (R) - 14%. (Strategic Marketing).

NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Congressman Jeb Bradley (R) - 55%, State House Minority Leader Jim Craig (D) - 27%. (University of New Hampshire).

NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-1: Bradley (R) - 58%, Democratic activist Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 24%. (University of New Hampshire).

NEW HAMPSHIRE - CONGRESS - CD-2: Congressman Charlie Bass (R) - 53%, attorney Paul Hodes (D) - 25%. (University of New Hampshire).

KENTUCKY - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congressman Geoff Davis (R) - 46%, former Congressman Ken Lucas (D) - 44%. (WCPO-TV/SurveyUSA). (A previous poll had Davis behind by nine points.)

NEW YORK - CD-20: Congressman John Sweeney (R) - 53%, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 34%. (Siena College).

WASHINGTON - CD-8: Congressman Dave Reichert (R) - 54%, former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) - 41%. (KING-TV/SurveyUSA).

COLORADO - CD-7: State Higher Education Commission Chair Rick O'Donnell (R) - 45%, former State Senator Ed Perlmutter (D) - 45%, businessman Dave Chandler (Green) - 2%, businessman Roger McCarville (Constitution) - 2%. (KFOR-TV/SurveyUSA). (Potential Democrat Pickup)

CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-48: Congressman John Campbell (R) - 57%, attorney Steve Young (D) - 31%, realtor Bruce Cohen (Libertarian) - 6%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).

CALIFORNIA - CONGRESS - CD-26: Congressman Dave Dreier (R) - 48%, environmental consultant Cynthia Matthews (D) - 35%. (KABC-TV/SurveyUSA).

COLORADO - CONGRESS - CD-4: Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 46%, State Representative Angie Paccione (D) - 42%, former Reagan Administration EPA official Eric Eidsness (Reform) - 8%. (KUSA-TV/SurveyUSA).

NEW MEXICO - CD-1: Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) - 45%, Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) - 42%. (Albuquerque Journal).

VIRGINIA -CD-5: Congressman Virgil Goode (R) - 59%, winemaker Al Weed (D) - 35%. (WDBJ-TV/SurveyUSA).

The only Republican trailing: (This is a very old poll, incidentally... from two months ago, and I've heard not-particularly-rock-solid whispers that Chocola is turning it around.)

INDIANA -CD-2: Attorney Joe Donnelly (D) - 46%, Congressman Chris Chocola (R) - 41%. (South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV).

If anyone else has any polling data of HOUSE races, please be sure to share. Also, note that, besides Chocola, the other seat polling that it would currently switch hands would go from Democrat to Republican (Vermont.)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006election; 2006polls; dangus; election; election2006

1 posted on 09/06/2006 7:43:53 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

Any Irey/Murtha polls yet?


2 posted on 09/06/2006 7:44:38 PM PDT by JerseyDvl ("If you attack Americans, we'll defend your right to do it."- The Democrat Party)
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To: dangus

For clarification: The two Maine polls included are from districts where the Democrat is incumbent.


3 posted on 09/06/2006 7:45:02 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

btt


4 posted on 09/06/2006 7:47:00 PM PDT by DrDeb
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To: JerseyDvl

No. Incidentally, I didn't see them made public, but I understand that even in the two Connecticut liberal Republicans' districts (Shays and Johnson), the Republicans are ahead... Same for McHugh's district in NY and Bilbray's in California.


5 posted on 09/06/2006 7:48:24 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

I went looking for polls on Tim Walberg here in Michigan's 7th district but didn't find any. We're a pretty firm GOP district.

All I found was a bunch of enraged atheists. LOL


6 posted on 09/06/2006 7:51:31 PM PDT by cripplecreek (If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?)
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To: JerseyDvl

My understanding is that Murtha's district is now considered to be in play by some Washingtonians. My insider sources are not great... they are just Capital-Hill immigration-reform activists... but I do have them. :^D


7 posted on 09/06/2006 7:51:45 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
I have become convinced that most of the polls showing wide Dem leads are a set-up. I believe this because this way, when the Repub wins, the Dems can cry 'cheaters'. Much like the exit poll whining. I mean, really, exit polls are far more accurate than counting the votes, aren't they?? Polls in September must be the most accurate predictor of the actual outcome of the election, right?
8 posted on 09/06/2006 7:57:23 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: dangus
"(No Republican polled is losing.)"


9 posted on 09/06/2006 8:01:08 PM PDT by Enterprise (Let's not enforce laws that are already on the books, let's just write new laws we won't enforce.)
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To: dangus

More News:

Constituent Dynamics has polled what it considers to be the hottest 30 races. Their results are not being reported, and I've never heard of their outfit, so maybe they are fly-by-night. That said, of the polls from districts where I've seen other polls, their results seem more to the Democrats.

They show the following Republican seats in trouble:
Rick O'Donnell (CO-7) trailing by 2. (Open seat)
Rob Simmons (CT-2) trailing by 6.
Mike Whalen (IA-1) trailing by 13. (Open seat)
Peter Roskam (IL-6) trailing by 1. (Open seat) (opponent Duckworth had huge name advantage.)
Charles Taylor (NC-11) trailing by 3.
Jim Gerlach (PA-6) trailing by 5.
Don Sherwood (PA-10) trailing by 7.
Dave Reichert (WA-8) trailing by 3. (Other polls showed Reichert with a comfy lead.)
Thelma Drake (VA-2) trailing by 8.

I am not counting races where no primary has been held yet.


10 posted on 09/06/2006 8:04:23 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus

Much like Al Qaida, Hamas and Hezbollah have learned that spinning the media is useful because it takes the will out of their opponents, the Democrats do the same.

They hope that bad news will discourage the Republican base (as AQ hopes bad news will cause us to pull our troops) and that is what it is all about.

Lets deal them a double dose and push their faces in the mud. Then, when they lose the election, lets push the AQ and the Iraq insurgency into the mud too.

If I was the Repubs, I would be making the argument that re-electing the Repubs will send a message to the terrorists that the USA does NOT BACK DOWN. No Cut-and-run, we are coming for you!!!!

Hopefully, they get the idea before it is too late.


11 posted on 09/06/2006 8:04:53 PM PDT by Paloma_55 (I may be a hateful bigot, but I still love you)
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To: dangus

The same polling firm shows only two Republicans leading tight races, Geoff Davis (+3), and Heather Wilson (+3). They are still polling three races, including Chris Chocola. It looks like the worst-case scenario is currently that Republicans lose 14 seats. Based on today's polling, I'd say that if the polls were held today, the Republicans lose 7 seats. The reality will probably be better than that.


12 posted on 09/06/2006 8:07:49 PM PDT by dangus
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To: dangus
Just a note on the Vermont race: Peter Welch has run for statewide office again and again (Vermont's congressional seat is a statewide race).

He has never won.

He is a becoming a bit of a joke here. Despite the very liberal electorate here I think alot of voters are saying to themselve, "not this guy AGAIN."

Peter is the one on the right. (In VT you can't assume anything)

13 posted on 09/06/2006 8:13:18 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: Straight Vermonter

Bush matriarch stumps for Vermont GOP
By Shay Totten | Vermont Guardian

Posted Sept. 6, 2006

SOUTH BURLINGTON — For the first time in several years, Bush family matriarch Barbara Bush hit the campaign trail, stopping in Vermont Wednesday to help raise money for Republican congressional hopeful Martha Rainville.

Rainville, the state’s former adjutant general, faces State Sen. Mark Shepard of Bennington in the GOP primary on Tuesday. Shepard came to the event at its close to talk to reporters, much to the dismay of several Rainville staffers who hovered around Shepard to hear what he had to say.

Bush is the second member of the First Family to make a trip to Vermont to raise money and the spirits of the state’s GOP. She told the crowd that the White House has asked her to come to show that the Bushes back Rainville, and because “she is such a great candidate.”

Rainville told reporters after the event that was happy to have the former First Lady in town, and was unaware that the White House had asked her to stump for her.

She also said she doesn’t expect the president to come to Vermont on her behalf, despite the interest in the race. “He doesn’t need to; we’re doing well as we are,” Rainville said.

http://www.vermontguardian.com/local/092006/BarbaraBush.shtml


14 posted on 09/06/2006 8:17:01 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: dangus
Election results won't matter as much as the media spin.

If the demoncrats gain one seat it will be a voter mandate against the President and his policy in Iraq.

If the Republicans gain one seat it will be because of rampant voter fraud sponsored by the President and his henchman Carl Rove.

15 posted on 09/06/2006 8:26:04 PM PDT by pfflier
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To: originalbuckeye

Thw wide Dum lead represents nationwide polling on whether you'd vote for a Deum orRep., but the voting is local. Dums will run up 90% numbers in districts in Brooklyn, Chicago, Atlanta etc. These ridiculous numbers find their way into the nationwide polls. It's very conceivable that the Dums could win a total vote in House elections , but fail to win any real increase in membership.


16 posted on 09/06/2006 8:32:40 PM PDT by xkaydet65
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To: Straight Vermonter

What about the Repub guy who ran for Senate last time? Would he have any support?


17 posted on 09/06/2006 8:36:49 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: xkaydet65

Agree.


18 posted on 09/06/2006 8:37:09 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: dangus

Awesome post!!! Thanx for compiling this.


19 posted on 09/06/2006 8:42:09 PM PDT by Once-Ler (The rat 06 election platform will be a promise to impeach the President if they win)
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To: originalbuckeye

The guy who ran against Leahy, Jack McMullen, got labled a carpetbagger and got no support. The fact that Howard Dean, Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch are out-of-state liberals apparently bothers no one.


20 posted on 09/06/2006 8:46:51 PM PDT by Straight Vermonter
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To: JerseyDvl

Murtha did a poll, we don't know the results; however, his actions subsequent to this supposed poll, which reflect a shift from going to national to focusing more on home, suggest it's not going his way.

No official polls released to date as per the Irey campaign.


21 posted on 09/06/2006 9:15:45 PM PDT by Explorer24
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To: dangus

Wow! That's nine seats we have a possibility of losing right there. Not good.


22 posted on 09/06/2006 9:25:55 PM PDT by no dems ("25 homicides a day committed by Illegals" Ted Poe (R-TX) Houston Hearings 8/16/06)
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To: Straight Vermonter

Everybody loves Babs Bush. There's a few other Congressional Districts she needs to hit before election day. How about sending her to Pennsylvania 12 to campaign for Diana Irey?

Ms. Rainville's statement that she didn't need the Prez to come campaign for her because "we're doing well as we are" sounds to me like: "Hey, GW, don't show up here."


23 posted on 09/06/2006 9:32:01 PM PDT by no dems ("25 homicides a day committed by Illegals" Ted Poe (R-TX) Houston Hearings 8/16/06)
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To: dangus

Any word on Sue Kelly in NY?


24 posted on 09/06/2006 9:32:57 PM PDT by appeal2
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To: dangus

And Schwartznegger, Jeb, GW all lost according to the "experts"!! Polls Schmolls!

Pray for W and Our Freedom Fighters


25 posted on 09/06/2006 9:33:51 PM PDT by bray (Koffi 4 Food has Failed.......Again)
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To: dangus

I don't think losing a couple seats is out of the question but i'd be shocked to lose one or both branches. I don't see it in the cards and your polling data adds to my confidence.


26 posted on 09/06/2006 9:49:57 PM PDT by SmoothTalker
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To: xkaydet65

"Thw wide Dum lead represents nationwide polling on whether you'd vote for a Deum orRep., but the voting is local. "

Good points. In general people are fed up with congress and the way things work in Washington. So if you ask them a generic question about if we need a leadership change they will usually say yes. The numbers change a lot when you put specific names to the question and do it district by district because Americans generally seem to think their own congress-critter is one of the (few) good ones.


27 posted on 09/06/2006 9:53:09 PM PDT by SmoothTalker
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To: Straight Vermonter
Truly amazing, the total hypocrisy of the far lefties.
28 posted on 09/06/2006 10:09:27 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: dangus

This is great stuff! It supports my take posted Monday, that we will NOT lose seats BUT pick up 2 to 5 seats.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1695178/posts


29 posted on 09/07/2006 5:17:33 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (John Spencer: Fighting to save America from Hillary Clinton..)
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To: dangus
Dangus, C dynamics is a DEM internal pollster who is with the DSCC. Grain of Salt. If you look at their website you will see that they are new with no track record. They rely on home phone surveys, where Republicans usually hang up. In the days of Cellular phones, these polls are worthless.
30 posted on 09/07/2006 5:22:38 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: dangus
THAT c dynamics poll also has Clay shaw and Shays ahead dangus, even though the poll is a DNC internal. Their web site is ConstituentdynamicsLLC.com I believe, go to google folks.
31 posted on 09/07/2006 5:25:34 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Welike ike

RAT internal polls or not. We have to put our "petals to the metals". This is how elections are won.

Another examples would be Richard Burr, Saxby Chambliss, and Lisa M of AK. These Senators were behind in their Senate races during the Labor Day weekend. Yet they won through hard work. This year is no different.


32 posted on 09/07/2006 8:06:09 AM PDT by Kuksool
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To: Kuksool

Point taken. Put John Thune and Norm Coleman in that category also. But in terms of House races they tend to break one way in October.


33 posted on 09/07/2006 10:31:13 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: Kuksool

Point taken. Put John Thune and Norm Coleman in that category also. But in terms of House races they tend to break one way in October.


34 posted on 09/07/2006 10:31:27 AM PDT by Welike ike
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To: dangus
...when faced with a real, live Democrat -- not their idealized 1940s
populist, but a real, dyed-in-the-wool blame-America Democrat --
they decide the Republicans aren't so bad after all. So far.


That sums me up.
I've been politely (and a few time, impolitley) called "a border troll".

I'll be voting Republican.
Because the outcome by not voting (or the unthinkable, voting Democrat)
stinks MUCH more than voting Republican.

You'd think this sort of "game theory" would have gotten the Democrats
to do their "Come to Jesus" re-engineering much earlier (and
more subtly) years ago.
But many a Republican candidate can thank Democrats for having the
stubborness of a mule in sticking to loser policies.

Here in Missouri, the only way the Democrate Senate candidate
(McCaskill) is making a fight is by running as "tougher-than-Talent"
on illegal immigration.
She's faker than a three-dollar bill. Hopefully enough folks will
see through her by election time.
35 posted on 09/07/2006 10:37:43 AM PDT by VOA
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To: All

good spoof:

http://www.americaweakly.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=2052


36 posted on 09/08/2006 9:40:30 PM PDT by bitt ("And an angel still rides in the whirlwind and directs this storm.")
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To: dangus

What happened was, a week before Labor Day, the polls started going R, especially the notorious generic ballot poll. Then, over the weekend, there was a conspicuous media blitz telling about how the Democrats were going to get 110% of the vote in even Republican districts.

Karl Rove does not win elections in August.


37 posted on 09/08/2006 9:44:35 PM PDT by AmishDude (`[N]on-state actors' can project force around the world more easily than Canada". -- Mark Steyn)
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To: dangus

After the dimwit thugs of the US Senate threatened a major network....the voters saw their soviet style of doin' business. If they'd kept their stupid mouths shut...and not brought attention to their selves...they may have had a chance. They didn't and they again become sorelosers!!!!!!!!


38 posted on 09/08/2006 9:45:26 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc 10:2)
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To: dangus

marking


39 posted on 09/09/2006 4:33:48 AM PDT by RobFromGa (The FairTax cult is like Scientology, but without the movie stars)
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