[drangundsturm]

Only slight changes from last week. Owise is a little more pessimistic about the dems taking the house (32% vs. 36% last week), but a slight rise in their chances to take the senate, from about 10% last week to 13% now, but still a longshot.

As far as numbers of seats, not much change this week with Owise still predicting GOP narrowly retaining control of both chambers.

It is interesting to note that Tradesports has been trending closer to the Owise prediction in the past couple of weeks, now showing the Dems with well under a 50% chance of taking the House. Owise came to this same conclusion a lot sooner than Tradesports did. Tradesports is also still showing a significantly higher chance of dems taking the senate than Owise does (18% vs 13%) and always has, even though no analyst I have heard recently gives the dems any real chance at the senate.

[HHKrepublican_2]

What do they make of a Lieberman win in CT? Do they count him as a democrat? many polling sites are doing that to make it appear that the democrats are doing better.

[PackerBronco]

Given those probabilities and assuming that taking the House and taking the Senate are independent events, then the Dems have a 41% chance of taking one or the other or both.

[Clifford The Big Red Dog]

Zogby and Gallup now say the Democrats have no chance to take either the House or the Senate. But as I've always believed, the only poll that counts is the one in November

[jmaroneps37]

Welcome to the optimists club whomever you are. Better late than not at all. By the time we get to Election Day your numbers will have changed for the better. Take that to the bank.

[gridlock]

The trends will continue. On November 8th, we will be counting up Republican gains, not losses.

[taxcontrol]

But you simply KNOW that if the Dems so much as alter either the House or the Senate by so much as 1 seat, they will proclaim victory and that the American people have rejected Bush's warmongering.

Get ready for it... you know it is coming.

[Welike ike]

The Iowa electronics Market also has the GOP surging to its highest levels since June to keep the House. They are now at 57% to hold and 35% to lose the House.

[TSchmereL]

Contracts for "Republican Party to retain control of the US House of Representatives in 2006 election" are now trading at "57.2" on TradeSports.

This price is up from a very low "40" less than two weeks ago.

It is amazing! I hope it just keeps going up, but I actually expect it to be a bumpy ride.

The fact remains that no one knows.

But that did not stop me from wagering $20 on "Republican Party to retain control of the US House of Representatives in 2006 election."