Posted on 10/16/2006 5:13:34 PM PDT by AntiGuv
Why should media polls that can be easily skewed(such as polling on less accurate weekends, rather on more accurate weeknights) determine elections?
I'm over on the East Coast so it'd be really odd for me to have the flu when the season's barely begun. And we haven't had any flu out this way either, as I'm told by my sister who's a primary care physician. My temp hit 103.2 though which is almost ER territory, but I took 1000mg of tylenol and it's dropped to 102.3, so if that keeps up I should be alright. I'm thinking it's just a vicious cold.
Thanks for the post!
Lots of New Age oriented people from LA have moved there. I am not surprised.
This is a sign of trouble.
Why? It was weekend poll and was not weighted.
Polls do not determine who wins elections. Just ask President Kerry.
True...
(Northup, not Northrup...)
Excellent analyzes!! My family and I were at a Friday night football game(son is in the marching band), Saturday a band competition, all day and Sunday gone to visit the grandparents....so I agree with you 100% conservatives are busy doing things over the weekend!! PLUS, I've been called by Gallup and I don't answer when I see the ID caller...I KID YOU NOT, I swear!!
Even if we assume that the poll is correct, I don't think control of the House will hinge on Wilson's seat (which, after all, was carried by Gore and Kerry and is not in New England). Just today I told a friend I would predict a 51-49 Madrid victory while I also predicted slight victories for Taylor (NC-11) and Hostettler (IN-08). I now think Wilson and Gerlach will probably lose, but that we won;t lose more than 8 net seats.
I don't know why you all worship polls since they can be so easily manipulated.
I was just phone polled. Only 4 questions: 1) have you voted or do you plan to vote? 2) Richardson or Dendahl for Gov? 3) Wilson or Madrid for US House? 4) Lyons or Baca for Land Commissioner? It was an automated poll and didn't seem to be a "push".
Wow and you base that on a less accurate weekend poll. You're an easy sell.
Wilson is running a horrible, horrible campaign. The reason she is giving to vote for her is that "I'm not Bush", "I'm so Independent". Most people are thinking, yeah, I know Madrid is a crook, but Wilson is a RINO at best, and a closet dem, might as well vote for the real thing.....
This race is of importance because I expect that Pete Domenici will retire in 2008 (when he will be 76 y/o), and Wilson is the most feasible candidate to succeed him.
In my case, it's because the overall polls have been quite excellent predictors of election results. Once the polls generally start failing then I'll surely begin ignoring them. Since by and large the primary polling this year was been very accurate, I don't see any reason yet to dismiss polls.
I even have a bit of a hypothesis going that the partisan side which is most enamoured with denying the polls in any given election year is the side that will ultimately lose. Unfortunately, I haven't figured out a way to objectively measure that so it'll probably remain just a hypothesis.
We shall see. And let's not forget those oh so accurate exit polls in 2000, 02, and 04.
I saw a phrase coined here on FR, that democrats answer phone polls, Republicans go to the polls. Especially in this day of age where people are not chained to one single telephone, I think the outdated techniques of most election polling companies will show up in less accurate results.
There is no doubt that exit polls have been seriously flawed. It appears to be because in the past three elections they have oversampled urban precincts and undersampled rural precincts. This naturally creates a pro-Dem bias as we're all well aware. I'm not sure why this is taking place, but until the trend turns around I would recommend totally ignoring exit polls as completely useless.
But these Survey USA polls are not exit polls.
Oh so it is polling uber alles to you, even as modern day election polling companies ignore such new modern convieninces such as cell phones, caller ID, multiple phone #'s, and do polls on less accurate weekends when more people are out of their house.
well, a lot of other poll numbers were thrown around to "prove" Bush was a sure loser, such as job approval and right track/wrong track numbers, and the fact that he consistently polled below 50% (the theory being that most undecideds break for the challenger).
The point is, polls aren't infallible (or more to the point peoples' analysis of the polls)... but when all polls all point in the same direction, it has to make one pause. I think we've reached that point..
Yet I just get the sense that some event will occur that will reverse the current trend, and we'll hold the line.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.