SurveyUSA Election Poll: NM1 House Seat 'Flips' to Democrats

SurveyUSA ^ | October 16, 2006

[AntiGuv]

In an election in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District today, 10/16/06, Democrat challenger Patrica Madrid tops Republican incumbent Heather Wilson by 8 points, 53% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV Albuquerque. Since an identical SurveyUSA KOB-TV poll released 9/21/06, Madrid has gained 7 points and Wilson has lost 6 points. Wilson had led by 5, now trails by 8, a 13-point swing. Madrid leads by 16 points among women. The race is tied among men. Wilson gets 85% of Republican votes. Madrid gets 79% of Democrat votes. Independents favor Madrid 55% to 42%. In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage. See the supplemental analysis box below. Wilson was first elected to Congress in a special election in June 1998. In 5 elections, she has never received more than 55% of the vote. The election is in 22 days, on 11/7/06.

Analysis Common To All SurveyUSA Congressional Polls Released 10/16/06:

Today, 10/16/06, SurveyUSA releases election polls in 4 Congressional Districts: Arizona 5, California 50, Minnesota 2, and New Mexico 1. In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:

1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;

2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.

It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.

[AntiGuv]

Please be gentle. I'm running a high fever. :(

The other SUSA polls will be posted here.

[AntiGuv]

election poll ping!

[nj26]

I've always been quite impressed by Heather Wilson, as a veteran, congresswoman, and campaigner.

What is happening here?

[AntiGuv]

Note that the 8% SUSA lead for Madrid (D) is identical to the 8% lead in the most recent Constituent Dynamics poll.

[Dane]

Yawn another day, another media poll.

I can't wait for the morning of November 8th and these polling experts have egg on their face.

[Henry Wilson]

Interesting - the only change between this poll and the previous one is in the likely voter model.

I wouldn't count Wilson out. She, like Anne Northrup, are always on the most endangered incumbent lists, but somehow manage to claw out wins.

[MplsSteve]

How reliable is Survey USA?

[AntiGuv]

There's a statistical analysis of pollster accuracy at the top of the Survey USA homepage. I didn't post the direct link because it's an Excel spreadsheet, so you'll need to have Excel (or a free browser plugin) to view it. Anyhow, in 2004 statewide contests Survey USA was the second most accurate pollster, just barely edged out of Mason-Dixon.

[Mr Rogers]

Her district is a rat district at heart. I was surprised when she won the first time.

[VeritatisSplendor]

I'm the guy who did this poll and wrote the text reproduced in the above post. The "likely voter model" did not change. It was exactly the same model as we used in the previous poll. We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans. It's not a "model", or something we put in to the data -- it's what we observed while using the exact same methodology as before.

Not good news for the GOP I'm afraid, but there's still plenty of time for things to change.

[AntiGuv]

Opps! I mean they were just barely edged out by Mason-Dixon; and I was referring to their polls of presidential, senate, and governor races. (Remember I've got a fever!) In all statewide races they were also second, edged out by some pollster I don't recall ever seeing that polled just 5 races.

[Dane]

Ans what was your participation rate for the poll(i.e how many phone calls did yu have to make to get 1 response) and what were the actual dates of the poll.

[HostileTerritory]

Thanks for posting here. Is the release of the Hayworth and Bilbray polls imminent or do we wait until tomorrow?

[HostileTerritory]

According to the link at the top:
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006

[Kuksool]

With 3 weeks to go, no use whining aobut polls. Better to focus on cranking out the turnout. This is how Heather Wilson wins.

[Dane]

Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006

So it was a weekend poll.

[1035rep]

Exactly, I was going to mention that was the reason for this upside down poll.

[Dane]

We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans.

That usually happens on weekend polls.

[Salvey]

I'm wondering whether the conventional wisdom --that the folks moving to the southwestern states will add to the conservative voter base -- is wrong, and that they're actually 'RATS who will be tipping the balance in the opposite direction, towards the lefties.

[mrsmith]

How do you rule out that the party self-identification change is because poll respondents- not the electorate- are less likely to be Republican?

IE: that Republicans are not reached or refuse to respond (especially with automated polls).