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SurveyUSA Election Poll: NM1 House Seat 'Flips' to Democrats
SurveyUSA ^
| October 16, 2006
Posted on 10/16/2006 5:13:34 PM PDT by AntiGuv
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Please be gentle. I'm running a high fever. :(
The other SUSA polls will be posted here.
1
posted on
10/16/2006 5:13:35 PM PDT
by
AntiGuv
To: Torie; Clintonfatigued; fieldmarshaldj; crasher; Kuksool; AuH2ORepublican; LdSentinal; ...
2
posted on
10/16/2006 5:13:56 PM PDT
by
AntiGuv
(o) ™ (o)
To: AntiGuv
I've always been quite impressed by Heather Wilson, as a veteran, congresswoman, and campaigner.
What is happening here?
3
posted on
10/16/2006 5:15:16 PM PDT
by
nj26
(Border Security=Homeland Security... Put Our Military on the Border! (Proud2BNRA))
To: AntiGuv
4
posted on
10/16/2006 5:15:51 PM PDT
by
AntiGuv
(o) ™ (o)
To: AntiGuv
Yawn another day, another media poll.
I can't wait for the morning of November 8th and these polling experts have egg on their face.
5
posted on
10/16/2006 5:16:16 PM PDT
by
Dane
("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
To: AntiGuv
Interesting - the only change between this poll and the previous one is in the likely voter model.
I wouldn't count Wilson out. She, like Anne Northrup, are always on the most endangered incumbent lists, but somehow manage to claw out wins.
To: AntiGuv
How reliable is Survey USA?
7
posted on
10/16/2006 5:24:50 PM PDT
by
MplsSteve
To: MplsSteve
There's a statistical analysis of pollster accuracy at the top of the
Survey USA homepage. I didn't post the direct link because it's an Excel spreadsheet, so you'll need to have Excel (or a free browser plugin) to view it. Anyhow, in 2004 statewide contests Survey USA was the second most accurate pollster, just barely edged out of Mason-Dixon.
8
posted on
10/16/2006 5:27:26 PM PDT
by
AntiGuv
(o) ™ (o)
To: nj26
Her district is a rat district at heart. I was surprised when she won the first time.
9
posted on
10/16/2006 5:27:41 PM PDT
by
Mr Rogers
(I'm agnostic on evolution, but sit ups are from Hell!)
To: Henry Wilson
I'm the guy who did this poll and wrote the text reproduced in the above post. The "likely voter model" did not change. It was exactly the same model as we used in the previous poll. We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans. It's not a "model", or something we put in to the data -- it's what we observed while using the exact same methodology as before.
Not good news for the GOP I'm afraid, but there's still plenty of time for things to change.
To: MplsSteve
Opps! I mean they were just barely edged out by Mason-Dixon; and I was referring to their polls of presidential, senate, and governor races. (Remember I've got a fever!) In all statewide races they were also second, edged out by some pollster I don't recall ever seeing that polled just 5 races.
11
posted on
10/16/2006 5:30:32 PM PDT
by
AntiGuv
(o) ™ (o)
To: VeritatisSplendor
Ans what was your participation rate for the poll(i.e how many phone calls did yu have to make to get 1 response) and what were the actual dates of the poll.
12
posted on
10/16/2006 5:31:24 PM PDT
by
Dane
("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
To: VeritatisSplendor
Thanks for posting here. Is the release of the Hayworth and Bilbray polls imminent or do we wait until tomorrow?
To: Dane
According to the link at the top:
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006
To: AntiGuv
With 3 weeks to go, no use whining aobut polls. Better to focus on cranking out the turnout. This is how Heather Wilson wins.
15
posted on
10/16/2006 5:33:02 PM PDT
by
Kuksool
(Design your Own Polls. Go Vote and Take a Few Others With You)
To: HostileTerritory
Data Collected: 10/13/2006 - 10/15/2006 So it was a weekend poll.
16
posted on
10/16/2006 5:33:35 PM PDT
by
Dane
("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
To: Dane
Exactly, I was going to mention that was the reason for this upside down poll.
17
posted on
10/16/2006 5:37:19 PM PDT
by
1035rep
To: VeritatisSplendor
We do not "weight to party", we rely on self-described party affiliation (NOT registration), and we saw that more people were identifying themselves as Democrats and fewer as Republicans. That usually happens on weekend polls.
18
posted on
10/16/2006 5:38:38 PM PDT
by
Dane
("Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" Ronald Reagan, 1987)
To: AntiGuv
I'm wondering whether the conventional wisdom --that the folks moving to the southwestern states will add to the conservative voter base -- is wrong, and that they're actually 'RATS who will be tipping the balance in the opposite direction, towards the lefties.
19
posted on
10/16/2006 5:39:27 PM PDT
by
Salvey
(ancest)
To: VeritatisSplendor
How do you rule out that the party self-identification change is because poll respondents- not the electorate- are less likely to be Republican?
IE: that Republicans are not reached or refuse to respond (especially with automated polls).
20
posted on
10/16/2006 5:39:32 PM PDT
by
mrsmith
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