SurveyUSA Election Poll: NM1 House Seat 'Flips' to Democrats

SurveyUSA ^ | October 16, 2006

[kara37]

Survey USA does this every election. They have republicans losing everything until a few days before the election. Then they show the "REAL" numbers in the end.

I guess they care more about getting their polling correct in the end.

[longtermmemmory]

I always hang up on mechano-calls. Waste of my time.

They also don't poll cell phones.

[Dane]

I would also like to know the response rate(i.e how many phone calls it takes to get 1 repsonse). I'm betting it probably is 1 response out of every 3 phone calls.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Today, 10/16/06, SurveyUSA releases election polls in 4 Congressional Districts: Arizona 5, California 50, Minnesota 2, and New Mexico 1. In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points.

Yuk. This isn't good news. C'mon REPUBLICANS!!! LET'S ROLL!

[Kay]

I am impressed with your credentials. Way to go!

[RetiredArmy]

Well, if republicans/conservatives/religious-right, whatever, are stupid enough to stay home and refuse to vote out of being "mad" or whatever at republicans, then they deserve all the socialist/communist/homosexual/muz-lum loving democrats casts upon them the next 2 years they are in power. If they think that by staying home and refusing to vote out of being pissed off at republicans, then they are actually too stupid to be voting anyway. Refusing to vote, refusing to back candidates that are more closely aliened with your thoughts and beliefs while allowing the communists to get into power is stupidity. Much like refusing to do anything about the muz-lums and their killing machines. Right, just toss the 3,000 wonderful men and women who died in defending this republic, right, just toss their sacrifices right out the windows. Go ahead. Stay home. You get what you refuse to vote to prevent.

Rush ranted about this today and I agree with him. Just go ahead and stay home while they raise your taxes, while they cut and run and give the muz-lum murderers exactly what they want. Right, give us ANTOHER VIETNAM! Another cut and run. We only had 58,000 lives wasted in my war. Go ahead and waste another 3,000. What the heck is another 3,000 great young people who gave their all. Shucks, the illegals and the illegitimate baby makers can just make us a few extras for our taxes to pay for.

[Kay]

Sorry to hear you are sick. Hope it isn't anything serious. We haven't seen any influenza in my area yet this year.

[Dane]

As has been pointed out, there are analmolies in this poll. The poll was not weighted by the avg. registration in the district and also this poll was conducted over the weekend. Friday night is high school football night for which would be considered a Republican constituiency and also it can also be considered that Republicans would rely more on their cell phones and also have caller ID to screen out unwanted calls, while a democrat constituency would have less of both features.

I'm not buying this poll, especially since it is not weighted but was done randomly without taking into consideratiuon such things as cell phones, caller ID, and voice mail.

[ShandaLear]

BREAKING NEWS! The Dems take the House! The Dems take the Senate! President Bush is unelected and John Kerry is inaugurated. /sarcasm

I am so sick of these polls I could scream. I want to know where the RNC is in all this. too. I see no sign of them anywhere.

[Kay]

Suspect that they are not going to stay home at all. However, I do suspect that they are less likely to answer any political calls right now because they feel tortured by the media.

[Caipirabob]

Wow, cool. Even if it's bad news, it's just strange to feel I can finally trust a poll - lol!

[1035rep]

Every time I see one of these polls I recall mid summer right up to the 2004 election the polls showed Dems +4 to +19. It ended up GOP +3 House and GOP +4 Senate.

[Dane]

Actually Kay the first poll was not a weekend poll. It was stated that it was released on 9/21/06, which would mean it was taken from 9/18-20/06(Mon-Wed).

JMO, I would go with the weekday poll when more people are home over the weekend poll(when more people are away from their home.

Also remember that Survey USA gets paid by the TV station that commissioned the poll and determines which days the poll is taken and I wouldn't doubt that the TV station mandated that poll be taken during the less accurate weekend days.

[Henry Wilson]

Hmmm, that's actually what I meant - the demographic support for each candidate remained the same in the two polls. It was the composition of likely voters that changed. Not really surprising, given all the gloomy and bad news being reported. The Republican base is depressed.

[Dane]

Wow, cool. Even if it's bad news, it's just strange to feel I can finally trust a poll - lol!

Why? It was a weekend poll, while the first one is a more accurate weekday poll.

Also remember that Veritatis didn't commission this poll, the Tv station did and as they are paying for the poll, determine what days to take it on and weekend polls come out skewed for the democrats.

Veritatis is in the polling business and he is going to do what the commissioner of the poll(IMO, probably a liberally biased TV station) tells him to do. Also note that the poll is not weighted but random.

[Henry Wilson]

Bilbray:

Arnold should provide enough coattails to hold this seat.

[Dane]

Hmmm, that's actually what I meant - the demographic support for each candidate remained the same in the two polls. It was the composition of likely voters that changed. Not really surprising, given all the gloomy and bad news being reported. The Republican base is depressed.

How do we know that it is depressed when this was a weekend poll, random not weighted, and have no idea what the response rate was.

[Henry Wilson]

Well, we won't really know anything until election day. These polls may be about as accurate as reading tea leaves or studying goat entrails, but it is all we've got until then.

[streetpreacher]

If things do go bad for our side, we will point the blame at the party and our candidates unlike the Dems who will blame the voter machines.

[Dane]

Why are you comparing the less accurate weekend poll with the more accurate weekday poll.

Shouldn't you have polled on weekdays to compare the new poll with the old poll.