Larry Sabato: Election Eve 2006 (THE FINAL PREDICTIONS)

Larry J. Sabato and the University of Virginia Center for Politics ^ | 11-6-06 | Larry Sabato

[centurion316]

Ping for archiving

[maine-iac7]

If Lieberman wins = then, as far as Iraq goes - he will be as good as a republican -

[cpdiii]

Who can shed some light on this question? How do the pollsters adjust for the fact that Republican likely voters are more likely to actually vote than Democrat likely voters?

Zogby uses his "special sauce" but what do the others use?

[Moose4]

Considering that Sabato has been one of the leading forces pushing the whole "Macacagate" fiasco? Considering that Mr. Macaca himself was a student in one of Sabato's UVa classes? Considering that Sabato was instrumental in getting out the "Allen was a racist at UVa in the '70s stories"--stories whose primary source was a known long-time Democratic activist in North Carolina, a fact that Sabato didn't mention?

Larry Sabato could tell me the friggin' sky was blue and I wouldn't believe him till I could look out a window. He's a liberal, always has been, always will be, and he's got a personal vendetta against George Allen.

}:-)4

[Jeffrey_D.]

“I hope that someday your children and grandchildren will tell of the time that a certain president came to town at the end of a long journey and asked their parents and grandparents to join him in setting America on the course to the new millennium—and that a century of peace, prosperity, opportunity, and hope followed. So, if I could ask you just one last time: Tomorrow, when mountains greet the dawn, would you go out there and win one for the Gipper?” —Ronald Reagan, November 7, 1988

[Corin Stormhands]

If Allen pulls this off, and today I'm much more optimistic, Larry Sabotage will be more depressed than Webb.

I've never had much respect for him. But he blew any pretense of non-partisanship and credibility with that whole "I ~know~ he said it" crap.

[nutmeg]

This guy is smoking crack, there is no way all three Republican incumbents (House) will lose. I predict they will retain 2 of the 3 seats.

Call me ridiculously optimistic or just plain crazy - but I think CT will retain all three Republican incumbents. I'm pretty secure Simmons and Johnson will win... isn't the Shays/Farrell race within the margin of error?

Unfortunately I can't help any of them, since we're now stuck with the RAT Larson. A few years ago our congresscritter was Nancy Johnson... Of course she's a huge RINO, but I'll take her over John Larson any day...

[Petronski]

One needs an "adult diaper" to hold that much crap.

[nutmeg]

BTW, FWIW... I'm pretty sure Larry Sabato is a 'RAT himself... wishful thinking on his part perhaps?

[nutmeg]

Who can shed some light on this question? How do the pollsters adjust for the fact that Republican likely voters are more likely to actually vote than Democrat likely voters?

Plus the fact that so many Republicans don't partake in polls because they simply won't answer their phones (at least those of us with Caller ID).

[RockinRight]

I don't buy this - it's leaning towards the D's even more than the Dems own optimistic predictions.

[investigateworld]

placemarker for later "neer - neer - neering"

[dead]

Menendez is poised to reap the benefits of Democrats' organizational advantages in places like Essex, Hudson, Camden, and Union counties, even if his ethnic last name costs him some votes in other regions of the state.

What a pig Sabato is, implying that Republicans won't vote for Menedez because he's got a hispanic last name.

We won't vote for him because he's proven himself to be a blatently corrupt scumsucking toadie of Bob Torricelli.

Sabato can shove that "ethic last name" line up his ass. Jackass.

[VirginiaConstitutionalist]

Let me see if I understand Sabato here.

Bob Corker, running against a black candidate considered conservative for a Democrat, will be helped by a marriage amendment referendum that will turn out black voters.

Huh?

[#1CTYankee]

"I'm pretty sure Larry Sabato is a 'RAT himself... wishful thinking on his part perhaps?"

His numbers in the house look too high, wishful thinking? I'd say so.

[Alex1977]

Larry Sabotage: Another liberal macaca, deeply saddened on Wednesday.

[Bigg Red]

....he said that George Allen said the N word....

**
He did? When?

[BlueAngel]

I would love for Sabato to read the posts on this thread. Who does he think he is fooling?

[comebacknewt]

In order to maintain control of the Senate, we need to win only one of the 6 races Sabato shows us losing to the Dems. Allen, Burns, and Steele all seem like possible wins. I say all three pull it out to leave us at -3 in the Senate.

In the House, I think we take the following races that Sabato has going to the RATs:

Az(05)
Ca (11)
Co(04)
Ga (12)
Mn (06)
Ct (02)
Ct (05)
Fl (16)
Fl (22)
Il (06)
In (02)
In (09)
Ky (04)
Oh (15)
Nm (01)
Id (01)

I see us with -13 in the House to hold control by one vote. It could go either way, but I don't think either party has control by more than 5 seats.

[sticker]

my fear is too many idiots are going to buy into the: "if you don't vote for the crooked leftist from memphis,you are a racist load of crap