Posted on 11/17/2006 11:13:00 AM PST by Miss Marple
The disappointing results of the recent election have led to a lot of discussion about WHY this happened. In the search for the grand unifying theory of why we lost, there seems to be an inordinate amount of bitterness and recrimination.
The problem is that we all are looking at this through the perspective of our own beliefs. Conservatives look at the loss of Chaffee and Northrup and think "If only we had had a real conservative in those seats." Moderates point to the loss of Hayworth and Santorum and caution about moving too far to the right. Some blacks look at the losses of Ford, Blackwell, and Steele and think it's all about race. People like me opine that the Congress would have won if they had stuck with the President. Others think that we would have won if we had completely disassociated ourselves from President Bush.
The fact is, this election wasn't about ideology at all. We were outflanked by a very good strategy crafted by Rahm Emmanuel, who has proven to be a formidable foe.
First of all, the democrats made really amazing use of the scandals, many of which they orchestrated to be revealed at the most damaging time. Foley, Delay, Weldon...those stories were not coincidental. Judicious use of timing and legal tactics kept us from effectively defending those seats.
In addition, instead of waiting until this year, Emmanuel began recruiting people almost two years ago. He used a very interesting strategy...looking at what would appeal to voters in each individual district and state, rather than looking at a national message. The oft-seen "Rove, you magnificent bastard" graphics here on FR were more prescient than intended. In the movie "Patton", the phrase was "Rommel, you magnificent bastard, I read your book."
That is exactly what happened. Emmanuel "read Rove's book" and took a page from it.
Candidates were chosen to fit certain constituencies. Webb, for example, IS a bona fide war hero and he went up against George Allen, who didn't serve in the military. That drew enough votes from those military people in Hampton Roads and other military enclaves to put Webb over the top. The macaca flap was just icing on the cake.
J.D. Hayworth is also very conservative, and had made strict immigration enforcement one of his issues. What did they do? They ran someone who was also strict on immigration, but supported the President's plan somewhat. So, the democrat got the Hispanic vote plus a bit of the anti-immigration vote.
In Indiana, Hostettler and Sodrel were attacked by the democrats over Daylight Savings Time and the sale of the Indiana Toll Road, two issues which are very hot buttons here but have NOTHING to do with the federal government.
This is how the democrats won. They looked at each area and chose the issues which would get them enough crossover voters to get them over the top. While their national office holders and the liberal pundits were saying that this election was a referendum on Iraq, their local candidates were running on almost anything BUT that, at least in the swing areas.
I have to conclude that we just lost because the democrats did a better job. When your desire is purely to seize power (which is, after all, what a great many of them are about) then you aren't hampered by ideology. That's why they could run Jim Webb and other veterans while speaking in Washington about defunding the military. They simply discovered what would sell, and used it to get people elected in the democrat column.
Now, we can all post for the next ten years about which way would have been the best philosophy (moderate or conservative) but the fact is that this election really had nothing to do with either. It had to do with who was willing to do the most to regain or keep power, and the democrats won.
IF we had had a cohesive national message, if we had not been divided on issues since Katrina,if we had not had some really embarassing scandals, we might have been able to overcome this. However, with pundits assailing the President, Congressional Republicans split over immigration and earmarks, and the President only hiring Tony Snow late in the game to put out an improved PR effort, we simply couldn't overcome it.
Rove is an excellent political strategist, but no matter how good someone is, there one day arrives someone better, and right now this person is Rahm Emmanuel.
If I had a say in what goes on I would suggest the following:
1. No dissension within the party should be aired on national media. Anyone who does this would be stripped of committee assignments and campaign cash. Disagreements belong on the floor of the Congress and in votes and in letters to constituents. We do not owe Chris Matthews air time to help divide the party.
2. President Bush is the president for two more years. The media has done a number on him and does NOT need our help in attacking the president. Anyone who calls him too liberal, too conservative, too wishy-washy, failed, traitor, etc. is doing nothing but further depressing his approval ratings. It won't be easy for the 2008 candidate, whoever he may be, to run following a "despised" president, and all you have to think about is Hubert Humphrey following Lyndon Johnson. Keep your opinions to yourself for the sake of whoever runs in 2008.
3. Congressmen and Senators should start paying attention to LOCAL issues that could be used against them. Staffers should be monitoring the local papers and media. After seeing how Sodrel and Hostettler were sandbagged by this stuff, I am not so sure we can win much in 2008, especially since Governor Daniels will be at the head of the state ticket.
4. Finally, realize that a huge number of voters don't vote based on philosophy of government. They vote on who will protect their jobs, who seems like a nice guy, who has done stuff they can identify with, who has good hair, etc. They don't give a flying hoot about "limited government" or "social justice." If you talk to them about inside baseball stuff like whether Pence or Boehner should be minority leader, their eyes glaze over and they start edging away from you, figuring you are a whack-job. However, their votes count just as much as Rush Limbaugh's, mine, or yours. We had better understand them rather than patronizing them or ignoring them.
We have to lose our complacency that our message is self-evident, and that the public trusts only Republicans with national security. It is obvious that the public is easily misled and confused.
At any rate, this is my take on what happened.
Spot on!
The general public may indeed be pleased. And if GHWB likes to hang out with known psychopathic rapists, that's certainly his privilege. Afterall, he is a grown man.
Good information! We need to understand that the ladnscape has changed!
Late, but here is your ping!
Perhaps. But it wasn't adequately explained, not before or after the fact. And you're right -- I do want consistency between campaign promises and subsequent policies. I also want unity within the party, but not at the expense of underwriting liberalism, which is what we've been getting from the GOP in Congress and the White House. Read what the GOP says in its party platform about controlling spending and then just look at how much of our money they have flushed down the toilet. Just those three bills alone (farm, prescription, education) come to roughly one TRILLION wasted dollars that people like us had to go out and earn. If that isn't GOP arrogance, then I don't know what is.
I think the Republicans ran right, governed mid-left by spending like drunken sailors and ignoring such things as illegal immigration, tax reform, and winning (NOT maintaining) the war in Iraq.
Truth is....the Dems will totally misread the results and start governing hard-Left. This will destroy them in 2008.
" where was the one for 2006?"
Here Soros and friends were caught starting the campaign for the 2006 wins...IMO
Great analysis.
Here are two examples of many excellent finds by kcvl ...IMHO :
" Yes, it is okay to make criticisms of the Republican Party and the President.
But it's only useful in a constructive way and not to harp none stop ..."
I agree.
We should make this a learning experience. This is the opportunity now to listen to the voters outside of the beltway.
Most of the seats that we lost should be available in 2008 if we can find good local mayors, governors ( like Jeb Bush ), and other leaders to run for congress or the senate.
I really never understand why states like North Dakota have two rats in the Senate. States and congressional districts that have been voting for Bush should be ours.
BUMP
"John Kerry (D-Massholechusetts) wins another six year term to the U.S. Senate, defeating Libertarian candidate Mike Cloud 73% to 27%."
Here's one from Election Eve, 2006:
"Fat Teddy Kennedy (D-Massholechusetts) wins another six year term to the US Senate, defeating Republican candidate Ken Chase 69% to 31%."
That's a slight improvement from 2000, when it was Kennedy 73%, Jack E. Robinson (R) 13%, Carla Howell (L) 12%."
Bookmark
Good post. I think you nailed quite a few points!
The Democrats worked hard to beat us and we stood around in disbelief as they succeeded.
Now Republicans are blaming the border bots, conservatives or anyone else they can think of.
I think that there has been a huge disconnect with the American public with the WOT and the Iraq war,on one hand, and on the other, letting people, possible terrorists, swarm, unimpeded across our borders, caused many people to turn off, not show up to vote, or to vote Democrat in protest.
I think that many people are upset about illegal immigration and logically, can't see why we've been prosceuting one war but don't seem to give two hoots about this problem.
Good analysis, brief and to the point. Best yet. The negative effect of the media on the perception of the war coupled with the fact that as of late it also has not been going well, is the only other thing I would add.
Really good point. Santorum literally said, 'Just let them go.'
And if the General Public didn't see Clinton and Papa Bush working together, not only would they take no offense, they wouldn't give it a thought.
Thanks for the ping.
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