Posted on 11/30/2006 10:27:05 PM PST by george76
As a largely inactive 2006 hurricane season came to an official end Thursday, predictions that temperature increases in the earth's atmosphere and oceans would lead to more intense hurricanes are facing scrutiny from some "global warming" skeptics.
Climatologists last May predicted that the 2006 hurricane season would be more intense than last year's season, which brought destruction to the Gulf Coast in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
But the 2006 season brought fewer hurricanes than predicted, and none of the hurricanes made landfall. Experts attribute this to the unexpected early formation of El Nino, a periodic warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters.
According to Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Nino produces a "sinking motion" and increased wind shear in the Atlantic atmosphere, both of which kill hurricanes.
In a September 2005 speech, former Vice President Al Gore warned that "the average hurricane will continue to get stronger because of global warming" as "unusually warm waters" create "much stronger" hurricanes.
But Gore has also linked global warming to El Nino - which according to Bell, may actually have the effect of killing hurricanes.
In November 1997, Gore was quoted as suggesting that rising temperatures might be leading to more frequent and powerful El Nino systems.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnsnews.com ...
It is total bunk.
They likely have an angle to make lots of money for themselves.
Memo to Rush: Millions of American sheeple (particularly liberal women) today have orgasms of ecstasy merely at the mention of the name of the non-charismatic socialist, AlGore.
It's time for a new Gorebasm tape, Rush. Set it to the tune of "Where Have All the Flowers Gone?"
Rush has been way too light on the parody tapes for a couple years, and I can't think of a better dirge for him to get back in the groove.
Leni
Leni
Yes...
" It's time for a new Gorebasm tape..."
Saying that we can't make climate predictions because we don't know what the weather will be next week makes no more sense than saying we can't make long-term market predictions because we don't know where the Dow will close next week.
Climate is not weather. There are good arguments against the global warming hysteria, but this isn't one of them. I wish that people would stop using it--it's counterproductive.
has ANY Long range climate prediction ever been accurate?
It depends on how long range you mean. We certainly have no experience with making long-range predictions on the order of decades, because it's only in the last few years that we've had computers powerful enough to even attempt it.
In any event, I'm not claiming that long-range predictions are accurate. I'm saying that the fact that we can't predict weather is irrelevant. Weather is a discrete event. Climate is an average.
I recall a long time ago my professor in statistical mechanics used to have an "unofficial" law of stat-mech: large deviations in one direction are ultimately compensated by similar deviations in the other direction. We had an active year and a quiet year. That's all we can conclude on the basis of that data.
That is the beauty of their logic.
They can never be "wrong."
See? It just proves it.
No kidding. I still chuckle to myself when I think of a local weatherman on the 11pm news who started his segment this way a few years ago:
"I was all set to bring you the current weather conditions based on excellent technical data from the latest high tech instruments ... and I was going to tell you that there was only a 5-10% chance of rain tonight in the county. But, just before I went on the air, one of my producers whispered in my earpiece that I might want to open the back door to the station before I hit the air with my weather info. So, I opened the door and discovered what most of you already know ... it's pouring rain out there."
It was too funny.
Hmmm, has anyone ever made any accurate longterm market predictions? Maybe Warren Buffet, but as he readily admits he is more often wrong than he is correct. Your premise that anyone can make accurate longterm market projections is incorrect.
Climate is not weather. There are good arguments against the global warming hysteria, but this isn't one of them. I wish that people would stop using it--it's counterproductive.
The average daily temperature is both climate and weather. The climate is a derivative of the weather. Theoretically if you know all the variables and how they interact, you should be able to predict both the weather and the climate (climates are just as variable as the weather over a longer period).
Great picture!
Sure. Anyone who says that the long-term trend of the market is up is making an accurate long-term market prediction, and it's not one that depends on knowing what the market will do on any particular day, or week.
The average daily temperature is both climate and weather. The climate is a derivative of the weather.
No. Climate models are not based on weather models, or derived from weather models. They don't attempt to make predictions of the temperature, humidity or winds on a daily basis, and then take a long-term average of them. They are much more coarse than that.
In a now common pattern, Al Gore was on the Tonight Show on Weds. night. The Tonight Show is filmed in LA. Leno has been making jokes all week about how cold it has been in LA this week. It would seem if we want to stop GW then we should just keep Al moving around the globe cooling off hot spots.
ping
Well, he sure causes a cold spot in my mind. In my state today with wind gusts up to 50mph and dropping temps, I would have to laugh Al right out of his chair!
I beleive we are both from the fine State of Indiana and yes Global Warming seems like a fond dream in Indianapolis today.
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