Close Call with Asteroid 2006 XG1 in 2041

[LibWhacker]

I don’t want to get you worried, or even mildly concerned. No need to panic. In fact, just read this little piece, and remark with interest that an asteroid is going to get really really close to the Earth on October 31, 2041. It might - I repeat might - have a small, insignificant chance of hitting the Earth and causing regional devastation. Like a 1 in 40,000 chance. Those are pretty good odds when you think of it.

Still not panicking? Good.

The asteroid in question is called 2006 XG1. It was discovered on September 20, 2006 by the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey, which surveys the observable sky to search for Near Earth Objects (NEOs); asteroids whose orbits interact with the Earth, and may impact with us in the future.

The object wasn’t originally considered a risk, but followup observations raised the chances to a 1 on the Torino Impact scale.

Here’s what the Torino Scale has to say about level 1 objects:

A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

There are currently only two objects on the Torino Scale with a risk higher than 0: 1950 DA, and now 2006 XG1. Here’s the interesting thing, though. The threat specifically from 2006 XG1 is still only one-tenth the background level we face from collisions all the time.

2006 XG1 is estimated to measure between 600 and 1,400 metres (.4 to .8 miles) across. For NEOs, that’s actually pretty large. If an asteroid that big were to hit the Earth, it would release the energy equivalent of 1700 megatons of TNT and cause regional scale devastation.

Although it could hit us, the most likely estimate guesses that 2006 XG1 will pass by on October 31, 2041 at a distance of only 5,000 km (3,100 miles). Consider that the Moon is about 385,000 km away. Whatever happens, it’ll be a close call.

[Dawggie]

0.16ppm Nah, me not worried.

[MaxMax]

http://www.planetfusion.co.uk/~pignut/moonmyth2.html

I trump your Moon theory, and raise you a Sun.

[WestVirginiaRebel]

I like the Moon up in space. I do not like asteroids in my face. I do not like them turning me into Spam. I do not like them, Sam I Am!

[Lancey Howard]

I hope I'm around for this.
I have a feeling, though, that by then we will have some pretty powerful particle beam weapons strong enough to detonate any threatening asteroid long before it got close. Heck, we might have that kind of weaponry in space already considering we developed atomic bombs over 60 years ago in the bronze age of technology.

[Slings and Arrows]

I got yer "Sun" right here!

[MaxMax]

Worry not human,

We will save you.

[texas booster]

1 in 40,000 chance the asteroid will hit us.

1 in 4 chance that a movie will soon be released that an asteroid will hit us.

1 in 1 chance that a movie will be rushed into production if the asteroid really will hit us, or if enviroweenies can find a way to blame the resulting global warming or global cooling on Bush because of it.

[nemo31]

Those are some long odds. They are almost the same as a worker exposed to second hand smoke for 40 hrs a week for 30 years. 0.000130

[nemo31]

Those are some long odds. They are almost the same as a worker exposed to second hand smoke for 40 hrs a week for 30 years. Getting lung cancer or heart disease. 0.000130

[bruinbirdman]

"Wasn't there some talk fairly recently about trying to hit an asteroid with something hard enough to hit it off course?"

The problem is not in our trying to knock it off course. What happens if between now and 2041 if something in outerspace hits 2006 XG1 and knocks it 3,100 miles closer to earth?

Afterall, where did they find this rock? In an asteroid belt filled with all kinds of other rocks moving pretty fast.

yitbos

[sageb1]

Quite true. Didn't think of it that way.

[Salamander]

Obligatory post;

[bruinbirdman]

University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey has another goal besides locating asteroids and calculating earth collision probability. That is to predict the probabilities of asteroid on asteroid collisions or near collisions (gravity effect of near misses) and resulting orbits.

Wonder how many asteroid orbits they look at before finding one near miss to report. Maybe they only report discovering a near miss when their funding review comes up. Kinda like NASA always finding water on Mars about every other year at budget time.

yitbos

[LukeL]

Maybe in 40 years all the greenhouse gases will make the earths atmosphere more dense and the asteroid will skip off of the atomopshere instead of entering it, had there not been anuy pollution:)

[sageb1]

:) 'nite...and thanks.

[LukeL]

Also remember that in space a tiny deviation of .00001% or less spread out over millions or billions of miles and many years can cause a huge change that we could not calculate.

[TN4Liberty]

"At 81 would I care?"

If you have kids or grandkids, you would care. If you have any regard for humanity in you, you would care. If you have younger friends or neighbors you would care.

I think you would care. I hope you would.

[Revelation 911]

34 years from now I "will" be 90.

I'll be a young 78.....you old fart (lol)

[Renegade]

I'll be 104 and the thought of that impact scares the hell out of me .

[Renegade]

I'll se your son and raise Uranus .