Posted on 01/25/2007 8:32:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Rudy Giuliani's star has hardly dimmed in the five years since terrorists attacked his city on Sept. 11, 2001, and he became a national hero _ the face of U.S. resolve at a time of tragedy.
The Republican dubbed "America's Mayor" hopes to ride that celebrity and his record at City Hall to the White House by emphasizing his leadership skills and embracing the strong-on-security, limited-government tenets of the GOP.
"If he can handle the scrutiny, and if events break his way, sure, he can win," said Fred Siegel, who wrote a Giuliani biography, "The Prince of the City."
Giuliani's quest to capture his party's presidential nomination won't be easy.
He's a moderate Republican from New York City, on the wrong side of social issues in the eyes of hard-core conservatives who are a crucial voting bloc in the primaries. His mayoral tenure was marked by criticism of an overzealous police force. He's linked to the city's scandal-plagued ex-police chief Bernard Kerik. His thicket of business interests could pose conflicts. He's been divorced twice.
"I sure have strengths and weaknesses," Giuliani said recently. "I think that sort of puts me in the same category as just about everybody else that's running. Are my strengths greater or my weaknesses worse? I don't know. You have to sort of examine that. That won't be the issue."
His challenge will be to remind voters of his take-charge attitude on Sept. 11 and his two-term mayoral reign, at the same time his main rivals _ Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney _ no doubt will try to exploit his background and record. For now, both are trying to gauge how much of a threat he may be.
Giuliani, who formed a presidential exploratory committee last year, is betting that the Republican rank-and-file will look past his liabilities. His aides dismiss skeptics who say he has too many flaws to win over primary voters a year from now.
"I believe they'll look at the picture as a whole," said Tony Carbonetti, Giuliani's longtime political adviser. "This (New York) was an unmanageable city, and I think what people want today is a manager, someone to lead in difficult times and to lead in not-difficult times.
"We're going to continue to tell that story," he said.
Before Sept. 11, Giuliani was known as the hard-charging prosecutor-turned-politician who cleaned up Times Square, led the city out of fiscal despair and brought Republican rule back to the liberal mecca.
Giuliani, of course, made enemies in the process, but on Sept. 11 even his chronic critics were muted when he took charge amid the rubble of the World Trade Center's twin towers. To many, he became a picture of strength, a reminder of the resilience of the American spirit.
"He has a connection to that. He is unique. On the other hand you look at the politics and you say this is a problem," said Alex Vogel, a Republican strategist in Washington who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate.
"The question is: Can you win a Republican primary a different way? History keeps saying no. But history has never presented us with someone whose favorability numbers are as high as Rudy's."
Indeed, national polls have consistently shown him leading for the GOP nomination, and early surveys in key states show him ahead or competitive. He travels to one important state, New Hampshire, this weekend where he will give the keynote address at the state GOP's annual meeting.
For all the hype since 2001, Giuliani didn't start preparing for a presidential run in earnest until after November's elections. Thus, he has lagged behind McCain and Romney in courting fundraisers, setting up a national organization and hiring ground operatives in key states, although he has made progress on all fronts recently.
Giuliani's aides insist they're making strides toward filling out his campaign. They say he can raise the $80 million to $100 million necessary this year for a serious run. Name recognition, obviously, isn't an issue.
Neither, his supporters argue, is likability. They say he appeals to people across the political spectrum and in every region of the country, meaning he could expand the general election playing field. That, his backers say, makes him the Republican most likely to beat the presumptive Democratic front-runner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
Perhaps.
But first he has to capture the GOP nomination _ and the big question is whether he can win over enough Republicans in states like Iowa and South Carolina, among the first nominating contests where voters are solid conservatives and could be turned off by his stance on social issues.
"Giuliani is going to have to convince people that he's more conservative than his record otherwise would suggest," said Peverill Squire, who teaches politics at the University of Iowa.
The former mayor's support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control conflict with the hard-line positions of the GOP's right. His supporters say he's not as liberal on those issues as he's made out to be. Still, he's from New York _ and that alone rankles the party's conservative wing.
Despite that, Giuliani's backers contend _ and some Republican strategists agree _ that he could get support from fiscal conservatives because of his record of cutting taxes, curbing spending and promoting small government, particularly now when the base is smarting over the soaring federal deficit under Republicans.
And, with the country still at war, his link to Sept. 11 _ the brand of a strong leader _ could trump the base's concerns about his background and stand on social issues.
"Giuliani's national security credentials will allow him to span ideological divides in the Republican Party and win conservative votes," said Greg Strimple, a GOP strategist in New York who is neutral in the race.
Unknown is whether Giuliani can woo enough of those base Republican voters to win the nomination and, if not, whether he can make up the difference by attracting independents and Democrats.
"His opening could come if people really think that somebody like Hillary is running away with it, and if there's a perception that only Giuliani can beat her," said John Truscott, an unaffiliated Republican strategist in Michigan.
Another factor that could help Giuliani is how the primary calendar shakes out.
New Hampshire and Michigan hold early contests, and New Jersey, California, Illinois, Florida and other states viewed as more hospitable to a moderate may schedule their votes earlier in the year, perhaps lessening the importance of a strong showing for Giuliani in Iowa and South Carolina.
For all the obstacles, even folks with ties to Giuliani's opponents can't deny that the New Yorker has a shot.
Said Ken Khachigian of California, who served as a strategist for President Reagan and was with McCain in 2000: "I would never sell Giuliani short."
You assume what I would assume(s). I have said that I have not, nor will not at this early stage, decide who I support. I think that most social issues are the pervue of the states. What that means to me is that a presidential candidate is NOT the person to look to to enact social issues.
McCain is the man who pushed through campaign finance - not Rudy.
My view is that the second amendment IS safe. I think the Supreme Court we have now would uphold the right to bear arms - meaning I think Kennedy gets that. I have yet to hear what Rudy is saying now about guns? Have you? I happen to agree with you that the second amendment is VERY important. Right after free speech it's the next most important amendment(s).
I understand that Giuliani has stated that Scalia is the judge he admires. That works for me.
I am looking forward to more candidates joining the field. Personally, I am hoping that the 2008 race can be a campaign of ideas...with a full field of GOP candidates.
Your citation of his NARAL speech is from 2001, when he was serving as Mayor of NYC. Certainly, as a former Reagan aide, he might have a clue as to how to govern from the White House, as opposed to Gracie Mansion (or whatever they call it)?
He's a political animal, certainly. That, I will grant you.
But, frankly, he's a winner among that vast segment of the American electorate that doesn't monitor FR daily yet still cares about the nation, at least between episodes of "American Idol". In short, those who vote in Presidential election years.
I voted a straight Republican ticket statewide and knew I was basically going to lose my vote but never thought it would be as bad as it turned out. It was a disaster here statewide.
I did the same thing here in PA with the same results. Of course you don't expect much in this state. I've been interested in your comments on OK politics as I'll be moving there in about a month.
I've explained this to you before, but you keep repeating the same lies, over and over. Newt and Hillary joined forces on an issue they agreed on. It had to do with changing the current system that handles private medical records of American's, from a cumbersome, unsafe paper file system, to a more secure electronic record keeping system. The issue was even mentioned by Bush in the SOTUS the other night.
This is not a big deal. You nopardons are bound and determined to fabricate lies from the horsecrap you keep speading on post after post, night after night.
I intend to find one. There are several running so far. I like Hunter the best right now, but we are still along way off from the elections. I think there will be more announcing as time goes on. The reason I have been intense on the Rudy thing is because that's the hot subject right now. I looked in on a Duncan Hunter thread earlier tonite but that was a bunch of Rudy supporters on it bashing Hunter. What to do, what to do?
A Rudy victory is a hollow victory. A Rudy victory, in fact, isn't much of a victory at all. As someone else observed, this happened in California with Gov. Schwarzenegger.
Goodness, you'd think many of the Rudy folks here are viewing the American electorate as a macrocosm of liberal California. You would think they were ashamed of conservatism, ashamed of Ronald Reagan.
Wouldn't blast anyone for an honest disagreement. But what has been happening on these threads is a contingent of Rudy haters coming on them immediately and posting the same thing on every thread and they don't even read the article before starting in. A lot of us had the same battles in 2000 with the Keyes people who hate Gov Bush. Same story different name but same people.
I won't blast anyone for a Republican they support and you can have reasoned discussions and agree to disagree.
George Allen was my first choice! I will support whoever wins in the general election -- just want someone in the general who will win enough states I don't have to stay up all night waiting to hear if our candidate won. To do that we have to run a candidate that can reach out to various groups that have been dissed by social conservatives who now are saying once again they won't vote unless they get their way. It is their right to not vote but it means we have to work to put coalitions together to win. We cannot depend on them again after what happened in 2006.
No............Rudy is the ONLY one she can NOT defeat with her war room tactics! Everything is known about him and he is still liked; unlike McCain.
They would and the HAVE!
just want someone in the general who will win enough states I don't have to stay up all night waiting to hear if our candidate won.
Not to mention weeks, waiting for the Dems to exhaust their legal challenges.
That's why I'm donating generously to Hunter's campaign and have volunteered to help him in any way I can. Given the number of God-hating gay-loving pro-aborts in Washington, I wouldn't be surprised if I am the ONLY WA FReeper supporting Duncan Hunter. (frustrating).
Rudy likes Ruth Bader Ginsberg too.
COLMES: Now, Roe vs. Wade -- You are pro-choice. How important is it to you as a pro-choice Republican to have a pro-choice on the court as someone...
GIULIANI: That is not the critical factor. And what's important to me is to have a very intelligent, very honest, very good lawyer on the court. And he fits that category, in the same way Justice Ginsburg fit that category.
In this answer, Rudy offers his criteria for a good SCOTUS justice. 1. "very intelligent" 2."very honest" 3. "very good lawyer". It's Rudy`s opinion that both CJ Roberts and J Ginsburg fit into that category. Frankly, I convinced Rudy would be more satisfied with a Lawrence Tribe or a George Mitchell on the SC, then a Constitutional conservative like Antonin Scalia or Clarence Thomas.
They would and the HAVE!
They would and they have what?
In politics it doesn't work. There are not short term loses that do not have consequences. That is being politically naive. Look at what has happened thanks to that thinking in 2006.
You cannot compare politics to a business when talking about winning and losing. The consequences we are getting from the thinking of teaching a lesson could have grave consequences to this Nation. We are at WAR and the terrorist want to kill us and change our way of life. This is not Ford or GM we are talking about -- it is the future of this Nation as we know it.
Hillary in the WH will hurt our military and we cannot afford to let that happen. You want to go back to the days when the Joint Chiefs were told to wear suits in the WH because she didn't like military uniforms? I certainly do not and will support the candidate who I think has the best chance of defeating the DemocRAT. Right now that candidate looks like it is Rudy.
No.
Instead of blindly posting, try to first learn the facts!
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